Posts
I apologize for those that were waiting for an update after
last night's games. I was spending
Easter with my family, so I decided that I would wait until today to write
something up. Besides, nothing can
really happen between now and next Saturday anyway.
The biggest surprise of the night came from Syracuse, who I
still claim shouldn't have been in the tournament at all, coming from way back
to knock off the third #1 seed to get knocked out in a row. If you had told me before the tournament that
only one #1 seed would make the final 4, I would have totally believed
you. If you had told me that prior to
Saturday morning, I would have thought it was impossible. Syracuse beating Virginia guaranteed that not
a single person nailed all 4 Final 4 teams.
As a matter of fact, only 5 people got as many as 3 of the
final 4 teams (Adam S., Klei R. #1, Missy W. #1, James R. & Jeff D.), and
they all had the same three correct.
Only 2 people had the foresight to put Syracuse in the Final 4 (Daisy N.
#5, Tim N.). Unfortunately for Tim N.,
Syracuse was the only team he got right in the final 4 and is eliminated from
all contention. The average number of
correct teams people had in the final 4 was 1.11.
There are now 124 entries that are completely done in that
they can't get any more points. The most
of those is Matt N., who is currently 4th in points but is eliminated from all
payouts. There are only 13 people that
still get all the remaining points. Of
those 13, 9 are still alive for some kind of payout. Dustin B., Scott K. #1, Chad L. #3 and Irene
H. #4 can still get a lot of points, but they have too many games in common
with people that are ahead of them and can't pass enough people to make it into
the money. They could wind up with an enviable
finish, just no money.
Here are the entries that were knocked out because of
Virginia's loss:
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Adam E. (4th)
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Adam S. (4th)
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Ava S. (1st, 2nd, 4th)
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Ben J. #4 (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
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Craig G. (4th)
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Daisy N. #4 (1st, 3rd)
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Dan Dz (4th)
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Howard S. #1 (3rd, 4th)
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Hutch H. #3 (4th)
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Irene H. #1 (3rd)
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Jim D. #2 (3rd)
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Joel B. #2 (1st, 3rd)
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Jonathan O. (2nd)
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Julie S. (3rd)
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Klei R. #1 (4th)
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Michelle R. (3rd)
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Pete J. #4 (4th)
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Rob I. #1 (2nd)
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Stefan K. (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
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Steve H. (4th)
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Tomas L. #2 (4th)
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There were a lot of people that had North Carolina, so a lot
of the eliminations that happen with the Notre Dame loss are people that had
teams like Xavier and West Virginia in the Final 4, and needed North Carolina
to lose to hang on to any hope. Those
extra 8 points were the final nail in a few people's coffins. Here they are:
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Adam S. (3rd)
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Alex I. (2nd)
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Becky H. (4th)
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Jim D. #2 (2nd)
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Missy W. #1 (4th)
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Ray W. #1 (1st)
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That's the list. Not
much, but not many people had Notre Dame in the Final 4 anyway.
That also means that there are still 20 people alive to get
4 spots - and three games to go. If your
name appears on any of the next lists, congratulations! A lot has to go right for you to even be
alive right now. 90+% of the field is
eliminated, so you've made it to the Final Table.
Here are the probabilities for 1st place:
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1. Julie S. : 25%
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1. Daisy N. #5 : 25%
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3. Missy W. #1 : 12.5%
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3. Adam S. : 12.5%
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3. Jonathan O. : 12.5%
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3. Klei R. #1 : 12.5%
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...and for 2nd place:
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1. Klei R. #1 : 25%
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2. Irene H. #1 : 12.5%
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2. Daisy N. #4 : 12.5%
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2. Adam S. : 12.5%
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2. James R. : 12.5%
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2. Jeff D. : 12.5%
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7. Dan Dz : 6.25%
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7. Missy W. #1 : 6.25%
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...and 3rd place:
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1. James R. : 25%
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2. Missy W. #1 : 18.75%
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3. Adam E. : 12.5%
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3. Jonathan O. : 12.5%
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3. Klei R. #1 : 12.5%
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3. Craig G. : 12.5%
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7. Dan Dz : 6.25%
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...and 4th place:
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1. Mike W. : 12.5%
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1. Brian K. : 12.5%
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1. Irene H. #1 : 12.5%
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1. Mike C. #2 : 12.5%
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1. Michelle R. : 12.5%
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1. Howard S. #2 : 12.5%
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7. Jim D. #2 : 6.25%
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7. Daisy N. #4 : 6.25%
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7. Alex I. : 6.25%
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7. Julie S. : 6.25%
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There's still a way for us to need some tiebreakers if games
play out in a certain way, which is why some people have less than 12.5%
chances of winning, even though there are only 8 ways the tournament can play
out from here on out.
For those interested in the points, here are the points
standings:
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1.
Adam S.: 88 (-40)
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2.
Klei R. #1: 86 (-42)
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3.
Missy W. #1: 86 (-58)
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4.
Matt N.: 86 (-106)
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5.
Kazelli2: 85 (-91)
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5.
Mike C. #1: 85 (-91)
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7.
Michelle R.: 84 (-60)
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8.
James R.: 83 (-45)
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9.
Daisy N. #4: 83 (-61)
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10.
Jim D. #2: 83 (-93)
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11.
Ray W. #5: 83 (-109)
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12.
Jeff D.: 82 (-46)
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13.
Jeff S.: 82 (-110)
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13.
Missy W. #2: 82 (-110)
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15.
Hutch H. #3: 81 (-63)
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15.
Julie S.: 81 (-63)
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17.
Alex I.: 81 (-95)
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18.
Jay K.: 81 (-111)
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18.
Harrell R. #3: 81 (-111)
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20.
Craig G.: 80 (-48)
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21.
Ken P.: 80 (-112)
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21.
Joel B. #2: 80 (-112)
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23.
Jonathan O.: 79 (-49)
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23.
Mike C. #2: 79 (-49)
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25.
John E. #1: 79 (-113)
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26.
Carl B.: 78 (-66)
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26.
Brian K.: 78 (-66)
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28.
Ava S.: 78 (-98)
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29.
Hutch H. #1: 77 (-99)
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29.
Ray W. #8: 77 (-99)
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29.
Jackson I.: 77 (-99)
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32.
Luis B. #1: 77 (-115)
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32.
Pete J. #2: 77 (-115)
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34.
Wayne D. #1: 76 (-68)
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35.
Mike S. #1: 76 (-100)
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35.
Scott H. #1: 76 (-100)
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35.
Becky H.: 76 (-100)
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38.
Howard S. #1: 76 (-116)
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39.
Luis B. #2: 75 (-117)
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40.
Dustin B.: 74 (-54)
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41.
Daisy N. #5: 74 (-70)
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41.
Alyssa B.: 74 (-70)
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41.
Karen C.: 74 (-70)
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44.
Roth W.: 74 (-102)
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45.
Pete J. #1: 74 (-118)
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45.
Chris T.: 74 (-118)
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47.
Chun W. #1: 73 (-71)
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47.
Angie B.: 73 (-71)
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47.
Stefan K.: 73 (-71)
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50.
Elizabeth N.: 73 (-103)
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51.
Larry G. #2: 73 (-119)
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51.
Gary W.: 73 (-119)
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51.
Angie Bow.: 73 (-119)
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51.
Kye G. #2: 73 (-119)
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51.
Daisy N. #1: 73 (-119)
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51.
Taima B. #1: 73 (-119)
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51.
Pete J. #4: 73 (-119)
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58.
Jim D. #4: 72 (-104)
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59.
Jay H. #2: 72 (-120)
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59.
Wayne D. #3: 72 (-120)
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59.
William G. #1: 72 (-120)
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59.
Ben J. #3: 72 (-120)
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63.
Scott K. #1: 71 (-57)
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64.
Dennis R.: 71 (-73)
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65.
Irene H. #2: 71 (-105)
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65.
Gutless Kye: 71 (-105)
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65.
Gutless Missy: 71 (-105)
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65.
Gutless Ray: 71 (-105)
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65.
Rob I. #2: 71 (-105)
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65.
Jim D. #1: 71 (-105)
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71.
Damien R. #3: 71 (-121)
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71.
Chris M. #3: 71 (-121)
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71.
Joel B. #4: 71 (-121)
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74.
Dan Dz: 70 (-58)
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75.
Brett W.: 70 (-74)
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76.
Joel B. #1: 70 (-106)
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77.
Kirt R.: 70 (-122)
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77.
Josh C.: 70 (-122)
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79.
Todd K. #2: 69 (-107)
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80.
Howard S. #2: 68 (-60)
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81.
Scott H. #2: 68 (-76)
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81.
Michelle L. #2: 68 (-76)
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83.
John B.: 68 (-124)
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83.
Ally H.: 68 (-124)
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83.
Kansas C. #1: 68 (-124)
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83.
Daisy N. #6: 68 (-124)
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87.
Chad L. #3: 67 (-61)
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88.
Larry G. #1: 67 (-77)
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89.
Kristina H.: 67 (-109)
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90.
Jim D. #3: 67 (-125)
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90.
Jenny E.: 67 (-125)
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90.
Joel B. #5: 67 (-125)
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93.
Irene H. #4: 66 (-62)
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94.
Irene H. #1: 66 (-78)
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95.
Jason G. #1: 66 (-110)
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96.
Dylan B.: 66 (-126)
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96.
Chris L. #1: 66 (-126)
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96.
Chris L. #2: 66 (-126)
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96.
Tomas L. #2: 66 (-126)
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100.
Pete J. #3: 65 (-79)
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100.
Ben J. #4: 65 (-79)
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100.
Adam E.: 65 (-79)
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103.
Rob I. #1: 65 (-111)
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103.
Chris M. #1: 65 (-111)
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105.
Chris M. #4: 65 (-127)
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105.
Arianna S.: 65 (-127)
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105.
Tomas L. #1: 65 (-127)
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105.
Brent E. #2: 65 (-127)
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109.
Joe K. #1: 64 (-80)
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109.
Steve H.: 64 (-80)
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111.
April K.: 64 (-112)
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112.
Hutch H. #2: 64 (-128)
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113.
Chad L. #4: 63 (-81)
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113.
Mike W.: 63 (-81)
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115.
Ryan W.: 63 (-113)
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116.
Ben J. #1: 63 (-129)
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116.
Jay H. #1: 63 (-129)
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116.
Dan Du. #1: 63 (-129)
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116.
Chad L. #2: 63 (-129)
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116.
Dan S.: 63 (-129)
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116.
Joe D. #2: 63 (-129)
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122.
Harrell R. #1: 62 (-82)
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123.
Carin C.: 62 (-114)
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123.
Taima B. #2: 62 (-114)
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123.
Bella S.: 62 (-114)
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123.
Irene H. #3: 62 (-114)
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123.
Mason A. #1: 62 (-114)
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128.
Brent S. #2: 62 (-130)
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128.
Stephanie P. #2: 62 (-130)
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130.
Mason A. #2: 61 (-83)
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130.
William G. #2: 61 (-83)
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130.
Ray W. #2: 61 (-83)
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130.
Larry G. #3: 61 (-83)
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134.
Brian S.: 61 (-131)
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134.
Virginia L. #1: 61 (-131)
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134.
Jason G. #2: 61 (-131)
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134.
Presley J.: 61 (-131)
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134.
Plsczor Team: 61 (-131)
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139.
Brandon H.: 60 (-116)
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139.
Joel B. #3: 60 (-116)
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141.
Leslie S.: 60 (-132)
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141.
Joe K. #2: 60 (-132)
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141.
Stephanie P. #1: 60 (-132)
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141.
Ray W. #9: 60 (-132)
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141.
Mike S. #2: 60 (-132)
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141.
Michelle L. #1: 60 (-132)
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141.
Taran B.: 60 (-132)
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148.
Kazelli3: 59 (-133)
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149.
Brent E. #3: 58 (-118)
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150.
Gigi I.: 58 (-134)
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151.
Damien R. #1: 57 (-119)
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152.
Ray W. #3: 57 (-135)
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152.
Brent S. #1: 57 (-135)
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152.
Chun W. #4: 57 (-135)
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155.
John M. #1: 56 (-88)
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155.
Ben J. #2: 56 (-88)
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157.
Szecho L. #1: 56 (-120)
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157.
Brad R. #1: 56 (-120)
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159.
Chrissy I.: 56 (-136)
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159.
Danny H.: 56 (-136)
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159.
Mindi W.: 56 (-136)
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159.
Brett K. #2: 56 (-136)
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163.
Michelle L. #4: 55 (-121)
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164.
Tim N.: 55 (-137)
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164.
Brad R. #2: 55 (-137)
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164.
Damien R. #2: 55 (-137)
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164.
Joe K. #3: 55 (-137)
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164.
Wayne D. #2: 55 (-137)
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164.
Michelle D.: 55 (-137)
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170.
Daisy N. #2: 54 (-138)
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170.
Ray W. #6: 54 (-138)
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170.
Lisa M.: 54 (-138)
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170.
Stan C.: 54 (-138)
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170.
Marc R.: 54 (-138)
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170.
Eric R. #1: 54 (-138)
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170.
Chun W. #2: 54 (-138)
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177.
Michelle L. #3: 53 (-139)
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177.
Harrell R. #4: 53 (-139)
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177.
Dave M.: 53 (-139)
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177.
Brent E. #1: 53 (-139)
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181.
Todd K. #1: 52 (-140)
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181.
Harrell R. #2: 52 (-140)
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181.
Joe D. #1: 52 (-140)
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181.
Ray W. #7: 52 (-140)
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185.
Jim K.: 51 (-141)
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185.
Kansas C. #2: 51 (-141)
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187.
John M. #2: 50 (-142)
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187.
Ron B.: 50 (-142)
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187.
Jim W.: 50 (-142)
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187.
Brett K. #1: 50 (-142)
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187.
Daisy N. #3: 50 (-142)
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192.
Ray W. #1: 49 (-143)
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192.
Scott K. #2: 49 (-143)
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192.
Paul W.: 49 (-143)
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192.
Bosun S.: 49 (-143)
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196.
Kazelli1: 48 (-144)
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196.
Irene H. #5: 48 (-144)
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198.
Todd K. #3: 47 (-145)
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198.
Chris M. #2: 47 (-145)
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200.
Marissa O.: 45 (-131)
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200.
Jeremy C.: 45 (-131)
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202.
Szecho L. #2: 45 (-147)
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203.
Chun W. #3: 44 (-148)
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203.
John E. #2: 44 (-148)
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203.
Chris M. #5: 44 (-148)
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206.
Eric R. #2: 43 (-149)
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206.
Chad L. #1: 43 (-149)
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206.
Virginia L. #2: 43 (-149)
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209.
Jay H. #3: 42 (-150)
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210.
Klei R. #2: 41 (-151)
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210.
Brent E. #4: 41 (-151)
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210.
Jonathan V.: 41 (-151)
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213.
Dan Du. #2: 38 (-154)
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I find it funny that I am in 2nd AND 2nd to last. Talk about feast or famine.
But there are more games coming up on Saturday. Games my family will be in attendance
for. Look for us. We'll be higher up than the cameras in row S
of section 671.
Oklahoma v Villanova:
If Oklahoma wins:
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Adam S. is eliminated
from 1st & 2nd place contention.
Brian K. is eliminated from 4th
place contention.
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Jonathan O. is eliminated
from 1st & 3rd place contention.
Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd
place contention.
Michelle R. is eliminated from 4th
place contention.
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Missy W. #1 is eliminated
from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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If Villanova wins:
Julie S. is eliminated
from 1st & 4th place contention.
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Klei R. #1 is eliminated
from 1st & 2nd place contention.
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North Carolina v Syracuse:
If North Carolina wins:
Daisy N. #5 is eliminated
from 1st place contention.
Irene H. #1 is eliminated from 2nd
place contention.
Jim D. #2 is eliminated from 4th
place contention.
Jonathan O. is eliminated from 3rd
place contention.
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Missy W. #1 is eliminated
from 1st place contention.
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If Syracuse wins:
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Adam S. is eliminated
from 1st place contention.
Craig G. is eliminated from 3rd
place contention.
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Jonathan O. is eliminated
from 1st place contention.
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Klei R. #1 is eliminated
from 1st & 3rd place contention.
Missy W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd
place contention.
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So, that's it for now.
There are only a few different ways things can play out, but we'll have
more clarity after Saturday. I'm pretty
excited for it, since I've got a real shot to win that I haven't in a long,
long time. That also means that I get to
experience the disappointment of losing my bracket in person.
On a last note, here are the brackets that STILL haven't
paid yet. There's really no excuse for
this. Hopefully, this shaming will
provide you some motivation:
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Adam
E.
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Alex
I.
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Ben
J. #1
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Ben
J. #2
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Ben
J. #3
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Ben
J. #4
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Carin
C.
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Chrissy
I.
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Dave
M.
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Gary
W.
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Gigi
I.
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Hutch
H. #1
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Hutch
H. #2
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Hutch
H. #3
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Jackson
I.
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Jay
H. #1
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Jay
H. #2
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Jay
H. #3
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Kansas
C. #1
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Kansas
C. #2
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Marc
R.
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Presley
J.
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Rob
I. #1
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Rob
I. #2
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Roth
W.
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Taran
B.
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