NCAA Day 7 - No guts, GET OUT edition

What a glorious day for college basketball!!!    I ranked my top 5 days of the pool a few posts ago, and now two of those 5 days have happened on successive days.  Yesterday Duke got knocked out, and today, the gutless brackets were eliminated from all contention.

It was also a great day because after an Elite 8 that featured nothing but chalk, both #2 seeds advanced to the Final 4.  Only 13 people managed to nail both Oklahoma and Villanova in the Final 4, and of those 13, only one (Adam S.) has the opportunity to go 4/4 (he has North Carolina and Virginia).  That's some really good picking.

On the flip side, 102 people managed to get zero points today, and if you didn't get any points today, you are probably out of the pool.  The only person that went 0/2 and is still mathematically alive for anything is Ray W. #1, and that is because he is the only person who has Notre Dame to win the Championship.

After today, 55 people are done.  They can't get any more points.  The highest among those is Chris T., who currently sits in 19th place, but will surely finish much, much lower.

There are 181 entries that are totally eliminated from all 4 pay-outs, but that means that there are still 32 people left who can win something.

Speaking of which, here were the eliminations today (there were a LOT of them)

After Oregon loss:

Angie Bow.  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Brett W.  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Brian S.  (3rd)

Carl B.  (4th)

Chris M. #3  (4th)

Daisy N. #1  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Damien R. #3  (4th)

Dan Du. #1  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Dennis R.  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Gutless Kye  (1st, 2nd)

Gutless Missy  (1st, 2nd)

Gutless Ray  (1st, 2nd)

Hutch H. #3  (3rd)

Irene H. #4  (4th)

Jason G. #1  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Jeff D.  (3rd)

Jenny E.  (3rd, 4th)

Jim D. #1  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Jim D. #3  (2nd, 3rd)

Joel B. #4  (3rd, 4th)

Kristina H.  (3rd, 4th)

Kye G. #2  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Marc R.  (4th)

Michelle L. #4  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Michelle R.  (1st, 2nd)

Pete J. #2  (1st, 2nd, 4th)

Pete J. #3  (4th)

Ray W. #3  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Ray W. #9  (1st, 3rd, 4th)

Scott H. #2  (3rd, 4th)

Tomas L. #1  (2nd, 4th)

After Kansas loss:

Angie B.  (4th)

Ava S.  (3rd)

Brian S.  (4th)

Chun W. #1  (4th)

Craig G.  (1st, 2nd)

Dustin B.  (3rd)

Gutless Kye  (3rd, 4th)

Gutless Missy  (3rd, 4th)

Gutless Ray  (3rd, 4th)

Howard S. #1  (2nd)

Hutch H. #1  (3rd)

Hutch H. #2  (3rd, 4th)

Hutch H. #3  (1st, 2nd)

Jim D. #4  (3rd, 4th)

Joel B. #2  (2nd, 4th)

Joel B. #4  (2nd)

Julie S.  (2nd)

Karen C.  (3rd)

Kazelli2  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Ken P.  (1st, 3rd, 4th)

Matt N.  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Mike C. #1  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Mike C. #2  (2nd, 3rd)

Mike S. #1  (4th)

Mike W.  (2nd, 3rd)

Pete J. #4  (3rd)

Ray W. #5  (4th)

Rob I. #1  (4th)

Scott K. #1  (4th)

Tomas L. #1  (3rd)

Tomas L. #2  (3rd)

Wayne D. #1  (2nd)

William G. #2  (3rd, 4th)

What that leaves us is the following:

Here are the probabilities for winning the pool:

1. Julie S. : 25%

2. Ray W. #1 : 12.5%

2. Daisy N. #5 : 12.5%

4. Daisy N. #4 : 9.375%

4. Missy W. #1 : 9.375%

6. Joel B. #2 : 6.25%

6. Ava S. : 6.25%

6. Adam S. : 6.25%

6. Jonathan O. : 6.25%

6. Klei R. #1 : 6.25%

...and for getting 2nd place:

1. Irene H. #1 : 15.625%

2. Daisy N. #4 : 12.5%

3. Ava S. : 9.375%

3. Alex I. : 9.375%

3. Klei R. #1 : 9.375%

6. Rob I. #1 : 6.25%

6. Adam S. : 6.25%

6. Jim D. #2 : 6.25%

6. James R. : 6.25%

6. Jeff D. : 6.25%

11. Stefan K. : 4.6875%

12. Jonathan O. : 3.125%

13. Ben J. #4 : 1.5625%

13. Dan Dz : 1.5625%

13. Missy W. #1 : 1.5625%

...and third place:

1. Adam E. : 15.625%

2. Jonathan O. : 9.375%

2. Klei R. #1 : 9.375%

2. Missy W. #1 : 9.375%

2. James R. : 9.375%

6. Adam S. : 7.8125%

7. Joel B. #2 : 6.25%

7. Howard S. #1 : 6.25%

9. Craig G. : 4.6875%

9. Ben J. #4 : 4.6875%

11. Michelle R. : 3.125%

11. Dan Dz : 3.125%

11. Irene H. #1 : 3.125%

11. Julie S. : 3.125%

15. Stefan K. : 1.5625%

15. Jim D. #2 : 1.5625%

15. Daisy N. #4 : 1.5625%

...and 4th place:

1. Mike W. : 15.625%

2. Brian K. : 9.375%

3. Missy W. #1 : 7.8125%

4. Irene H. #1 : 6.25%

4. Howard S. #1 : 6.25%

4. Steve H. : 6.25%

4. Becky H. : 6.25%

8. Mike C. #2 : 3.125%

8. Pete J. #4 : 3.125%

8. Tomas L. #2 : 3.125%

8. Hutch H. #3 : 3.125%

8. Michelle R. : 3.125%

8. Jim D. #2 : 3.125%

8. Howard S. #2 : 3.125%

8. Adam E. : 3.125%

8. Daisy N. #4 : 3.125%

17. Craig G. : 1.5625%

17. Alex I. : 1.5625%

17. Stefan K. : 1.5625%

17. Adam S. : 1.5625%

17. Ben J. #4 : 1.5625%

17. Klei R. #1 : 1.5625%

17. Dan Dz : 1.5625%

17. Ava S. : 1.5625%

17. Julie S. : 1.5625%

For those interested in the points rankings, here they are:

1. Jim D. #2: 83 (-93)

2. Alex I.: 81 (-87)

3. Adam S.: 80 (-32)

4. Klei R. #1: 78 (-42)

5. Missy W. #1: 78 (-58)

6. Matt N.: 78 (-106)

7. Kazelli2: 77 (-91)

7. Mike C. #1: 77 (-91)

9. Ray W. #8: 77 (-99)

9. Jackson I.: 77 (-99)

11. Michelle R.: 76 (-52)

12. Becky H.: 76 (-100)

13. Daisy N. #4: 75 (-37)

14. James R.: 75 (-45)

15. Ray W. #5: 75 (-109)

16. Jeff D.: 74 (-46)

17. Jeff S.: 74 (-110)

17. Missy W. #2: 74 (-110)

19. Chris T.: 74 (-118)

20. Julie S.: 73 (-39)

21. Hutch H. #3: 73 (-55)

22. Jay K.: 73 (-111)

22. Harrell R. #3: 73 (-111)

24. Daisy N. #1: 73 (-119)

25. Craig G.: 72 (-48)

26. Joel B. #2: 72 (-56)

27. Ken P.: 72 (-88)

28. Jim D. #4: 72 (-104)

29. Ben J. #3: 72 (-120)

30. Jonathan O.: 71 (-41)

31. Mike C. #2: 71 (-49)

32. Joel B. #4: 71 (-97)

33. Irene H. #2: 71 (-105)

34. John E. #1: 71 (-113)

35. Chris M. #3: 71 (-121)

36. Ava S.: 70 (-42)

37. Carl B.: 70 (-66)

37. Brian K.: 70 (-66)

39. Hutch H. #1: 69 (-99)

40. Todd K. #2: 69 (-107)

41. Luis B. #1: 69 (-115)

41. Pete J. #2: 69 (-115)

43. Howard S. #1: 68 (-60)

44. Wayne D. #1: 68 (-68)

45. Scott H. #1: 68 (-100)

45. Mike S. #1: 68 (-100)

47. Kristina H.: 67 (-109)

48. Luis B. #2: 67 (-117)

49. Jim D. #3: 67 (-125)

50. Dustin B.: 66 (-54)

51. Daisy N. #5: 66 (-70)

51. Alyssa B.: 66 (-70)

51. Karen C.: 66 (-70)

51. Tomas L. #2: 66 (-70)

55. Irene H. #1: 66 (-78)

56. Roth W.: 66 (-102)

57. Pete J. #1: 66 (-118)

58. Dylan B.: 66 (-126)

59. Stefan K.: 65 (-47)

60. Rob I. #1: 65 (-55)

60. Ben J. #4: 65 (-55)

62. Pete J. #4: 65 (-63)

63. Chun W. #1: 65 (-71)

63. Angie B.: 65 (-71)

65. Adam E.: 65 (-79)

66. Elizabeth N.: 65 (-103)

67. Larry G. #2: 65 (-119)

67. Gary W.: 65 (-119)

67. Angie Bow.: 65 (-119)

67. Kye G. #2: 65 (-119)

67. Taima B. #1: 65 (-119)

72. Arianna S.: 65 (-127)

72. Brent E. #2: 65 (-127)

74. Steve H.: 64 (-56)

75. Hutch H. #2: 64 (-104)

76. April K.: 64 (-112)

77. Jay H. #2: 64 (-120)

77. Wayne D. #3: 64 (-120)

77. William G. #1: 64 (-120)

80. Scott K. #1: 63 (-57)

81. Ben J. #1: 63 (-73)

81. Dennis R.: 63 (-73)

83. Mike W.: 63 (-81)

84. Gutless Kye: 63 (-97)

84. Gutless Missy: 63 (-97)

84. Gutless Ray: 63 (-97)

87. Rob I. #2: 63 (-105)

87. Jim D. #1: 63 (-105)

89. Ryan W.: 63 (-113)

90. Damien R. #3: 63 (-121)

91. Jay H. #1: 63 (-129)

91. Dan Du. #1: 63 (-129)

91. Chad L. #2: 63 (-129)

91. Joe D. #2: 63 (-129)

95. Dan Dz: 62 (-58)

96. Brett W.: 62 (-74)

97. Joel B. #1: 62 (-106)

98. Taima B. #2: 62 (-114)

98. Bella S.: 62 (-114)

98. Mason A. #1: 62 (-114)

101. Kirt R.: 62 (-122)

101. Josh C.: 62 (-122)

103. Virginia L. #1: 61 (-75)

104. William G. #2: 61 (-83)

105. Brian S.: 61 (-107)

106. Jason G. #2: 61 (-131)

106. Presley J.: 61 (-131)

108. Howard S. #2: 60 (-60)

109. Scott H. #2: 60 (-76)

109. Michelle L. #2: 60 (-76)

111. Taran B.: 60 (-108)

112. Brandon H.: 60 (-116)

112. Joel B. #3: 60 (-116)

114. John B.: 60 (-124)

114. Leslie S.: 60 (-124)

114. Ally H.: 60 (-124)

114. Kansas C. #1: 60 (-124)

114. Daisy N. #6: 60 (-124)

119. Joe K. #2: 60 (-132)

119. Michelle L. #1: 60 (-132)

121. Chad L. #3: 59 (-61)

122. Larry G. #1: 59 (-77)

123. Jenny E.: 59 (-125)

123. Joel B. #5: 59 (-125)

125. Kazelli3: 59 (-133)

126. Irene H. #4: 58 (-62)

127. Jason G. #1: 58 (-110)

128. Brent E. #3: 58 (-118)

129. Chris L. #1: 58 (-126)

129. Chris L. #2: 58 (-126)

131. Gigi I.: 58 (-134)

132. Pete J. #3: 57 (-79)

133. Tomas L. #1: 57 (-103)

134. Chris M. #1: 57 (-111)

135. Chris M. #4: 57 (-127)

136. Brent S. #1: 57 (-135)

137. Joe K. #1: 56 (-72)

138. Chrissy I.: 56 (-80)

139. Brad R. #1: 56 (-120)

140. Danny H.: 56 (-136)

140. Mindi W.: 56 (-136)

140. Brett K. #2: 56 (-136)

143. Chad L. #4: 55 (-81)

144. Dan S.: 55 (-129)

144. Wayne D. #2: 55 (-129)

146. Damien R. #2: 55 (-137)

146. Joe K. #3: 55 (-137)

146. Michelle D.: 55 (-137)

149. Harrell R. #1: 54 (-82)

150. Carin C.: 54 (-106)

151. Irene H. #3: 54 (-114)

152. Ray W. #6: 54 (-130)

152. Brent S. #2: 54 (-130)

152. Stephanie P. #2: 54 (-130)

155. Daisy N. #2: 54 (-138)

155. Lisa M.: 54 (-138)

155. Marc R.: 54 (-138)

155. Eric R. #1: 54 (-138)

155. Chun W. #2: 54 (-138)

160. Ray W. #2: 53 (-75)

161. Mason A. #2: 53 (-83)

161. Larry G. #3: 53 (-83)

163. Plsczor Team: 53 (-131)

164. Michelle L. #3: 53 (-139)

164. Brent E. #1: 53 (-139)

166. Ray W. #9: 52 (-76)

167. Stephanie P. #1: 52 (-132)

167. Mike S. #2: 52 (-132)

169. Todd K. #1: 52 (-140)

169. Harrell R. #2: 52 (-140)

169. Joe D. #1: 52 (-140)

169. Ray W. #7: 52 (-140)

173. Jim K.: 51 (-141)

173. Kansas C. #2: 51 (-141)

175. Jim W.: 50 (-110)

176. John M. #2: 50 (-118)

177. Ron B.: 50 (-142)

177. Brett K. #1: 50 (-142)

177. Daisy N. #3: 50 (-142)

180. Ray W. #1: 49 (-79)

181. Damien R. #1: 49 (-119)

182. Ray W. #3: 49 (-135)

182. Chun W. #4: 49 (-135)

184. Scott K. #2: 49 (-143)

184. Paul W.: 49 (-143)

184. Bosun S.: 49 (-143)

187. Kazelli1: 48 (-88)

187. Irene H. #5: 48 (-88)

187. John M. #1: 48 (-88)

187. Ben J. #2: 48 (-88)

191. Szecho L. #1: 48 (-120)

192. Michelle L. #4: 47 (-121)

193. Tim N.: 47 (-137)

193. Brad R. #2: 47 (-137)

195. Chris M. #2: 47 (-145)

195. Todd K. #3: 47 (-145)

197. Stan C.: 46 (-138)

198. Marissa O.: 45 (-131)

199. Harrell R. #4: 45 (-139)

199. Dave M.: 45 (-139)

201. Szecho L. #2: 45 (-147)

202. Chris M. #5: 44 (-140)

203. Chun W. #3: 44 (-148)

203. John E. #2: 44 (-148)

205. Eric R. #2: 43 (-141)

205. Virginia L. #2: 43 (-141)

207. Chad L. #1: 43 (-149)

208. Jay H. #3: 42 (-150)

209. Klei R. #2: 41 (-151)

209. Brent E. #4: 41 (-151)

209. Jonathan V.: 41 (-151)

212. Dan Du. #2: 38 (-154)

213. Jeremy C.: 37 (-131)

I find it interesting that the top 2 guys in points have zero chance  of actually winning the pool.  Jim D. #2 has Xavier winning it all, and Alex I. has Kentucky.

But wait, there's more.  For your Easter enjoyment, there are two more games to decide who me and my family get to watch in Houston this year at the Final 4.  Here are the eliminations in those games:

Virginia v Syracuse

If Virginia wins:

Alex I. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Becky H. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Brian K. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Dan Dz is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Daisy N. #5 is eliminated from 1st place contention. Howard S. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Jim D. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Jonathan O. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Julie S. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Michelle R. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Mike C. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Missy W. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

If Syracuse wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Adam S. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Ava S. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 4th place contention. Ben J. #4 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention. Craig G. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Daisy N. #4 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention. Dan Dz is eliminated from 4th place contention. Howard S. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention. Hutch H. #3 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Irene H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Jim D. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Joel B. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention. Jonathan O. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Julie S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Michelle R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Pete J. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Rob I. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Stefan K. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention. Steve H. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Tomas L. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

North Carolina v Notre Dame

If North Carolina wins:

Alex I. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Ava S. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Becky H. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Ben J. #4 is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention. Daisy N. #4 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jim D. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Jonathan O. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Julie S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Ray W. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Stefan K. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Tomas L. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

If Notre Dame wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Adam S. is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention. Alex I. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Craig G. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention. Dan Dz is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention. Howard S. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Hutch H. #3 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Irene H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention. James R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Jeff D. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Jonathan O. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Julie S. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. Michelle R. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention. Mike C. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Missy W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Pete J. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

So, as we get to the end, you start seeing some strange eliminations.  Take my bracket for example.  If Virginia wins, I can't get 3rd place anymore.  If Syracuse wins, I can't get 4th place.  It seems like I lose either way.  The same for the next game.  If North Carolina wins, I can't get 4th place anymore.  If Notre Dame wins, I can't get 1st or 2nd.  That's how it goes when we are trying to whittle 32 entries down to 4 spots with only 5 games left.  Not all options can be alive.  You can look at as a win-win if you want.

One last piece of good news.  There can be no ties for 1st as of today.  All options where the pool ends in a tie are eliminated.  That's not true for 2nd, 3rd or 4th, but even those are dwindling (and hopefully won't come into play) and none are more than 2-way ties.  That's always good for me.

All right.  Enjoy the games tomorrow!  Have a Happy Easter!  Make sure you make plans to pay if you haven't already.

Good luck!!!!!!