Initial 1st place probabilities

Well, we've finally arrived at the Sweet 16.  All it took was a complete choke job from Northern Iowa, a miracle shot from Wisconsin and a close victory by Oregon to round out the field.

At this point, I stop really caring about the points.  For anyone interested, here are the points standings:

1. Chris T.: 50 (-90)

2. Brian S.: 49 (-35)

3. Danny H.: 48 (-52)

4. Dan Du. #1: 47 (-61)

5. John E. #1: 47 (-81)

6. Kazelli3: 47 (-93)

7. Carl B.: 46 (-30)

8. Daisy N. #5: 46 (-34)

9. Klei R. #1: 46 (-38)

10. Brian K.: 46 (-50)

10. Matt N.: 46 (-50)

12. Irene H. #1: 46 (-58)

13. Chun W. #1: 45 (-31)

14. Jackson I.: 45 (-35)

14. Kazelli2: 45 (-35)

16. Harrell R. #3: 45 (-51)

16. Pete J. #2: 45 (-51)

18. Jay K.: 45 (-83)

19. Alex I.: 45 (-87)

20. Brent E. #1: 45 (-99)

21. Joel B. #2: 44 (-28)

21. Michelle R.: 44 (-28)

23. Craig G.: 44 (-40)

24. Joe K. #2: 44 (-48)

25. Chrissy I.: 44 (-56)

25. Leslie S.: 44 (-56)

27. Becky H.: 44 (-92)

28. Ben J. #3: 44 (-96)

28. Brett K. #2: 44 (-96)

28. Mindi W.: 44 (-96)

31. Daisy N. #4: 43 (-25)

32. Jonathan O.: 43 (-29)

32. Rob I. #2: 43 (-29)

34. Dennis R.: 43 (-33)

35. Joel B. #4: 43 (-37)

35. Larry G. #1: 43 (-37)

37. Ray W. #5: 43 (-53)

38. Jay H. #1: 43 (-57)

38. Wayne D. #2: 43 (-57)

40. Jim D. #3: 43 (-61)

41. Joel B. #5: 43 (-89)

42. Chris M. #3: 43 (-93)

42. Jim D. #2: 43 (-93)

44. Kristina H.: 43 (-97)

45. Chad L. #2: 43 (-101)

45. Joe K. #3: 43 (-101)

47. Alyssa B.: 42 (-38)

47. Dustin B.: 42 (-38)

47. Tomas L. #2: 42 (-38)

50. Daisy N. #2: 42 (-42)

50. Jason G. #1: 42 (-42)

52. Jeff S.: 42 (-54)

52. Josh C.: 42 (-54)

52. Missy W. #2: 42 (-54)

55. Daisy N. #3: 42 (-58)

55. Gigi I.: 42 (-58)

57. Chun W. #2: 42 (-66)

58. Brent S. #2: 42 (-86)

59. Roth W.: 42 (-90)

60. Dylan B.: 42 (-94)

61. Ron B.: 42 (-98)

62. John M. #2: 42 (-102)

63. Brent E. #3: 42 (-106)

64. Hutch H. #3: 41 (-31)

64. Julie S.: 41 (-31)

66. Mike C. #1: 41 (-35)

67. Chris M. #1: 41 (-39)

68. Ben J. #4: 41 (-43)

68. Hutch H. #1: 41 (-43)

68. Pete J. #3: 41 (-43)

71. Tomas L. #1: 41 (-47)

72. Angie Bow.: 41 (-55)

72. Gary W.: 41 (-55)

72. Kye G. #2: 41 (-55)

72. Luis B. #1: 41 (-55)

72. William G. #2: 41 (-55)

77. Plsczor Team: 41 (-59)

78. Arianna S.: 41 (-63)

78. Daisy N. #1: 41 (-63)

80. Bosun S.: 41 (-67)

81. Adam E.: 41 (-79)

82. Larry G. #2: 41 (-87)

82. Todd K. #2: 41 (-87)

84. Brent S. #1: 41 (-99)

84. Scott K. #2: 41 (-99)

86. Brent E. #2: 41 (-101)

87. Adam S.: 40 (-28)

87. Howard S. #1: 40 (-28)

89. Ken P.: 40 (-32)

90. Michelle L. #2: 40 (-40)

90. Wayne D. #1: 40 (-40)

92. Hutch H. #2: 40 (-44)

92. Mike S. #1: 40 (-44)

94. Chun W. #3: 40 (-48)

94. Howard S. #2: 40 (-48)

94. Szecho L. #1: 40 (-48)

97. Ben J. #2: 40 (-52)

98. Joe K. #1: 40 (-56)

98. John B.: 40 (-56)

98. John M. #1: 40 (-56)

101. Wayne D. #3: 40 (-60)

102. Kazelli1: 40 (-68)

102. Michelle L. #1: 40 (-68)

102. Mike S. #2: 40 (-68)

105. Ally H.: 40 (-88)

105. Scott H. #1: 40 (-88)

105. William G. #1: 40 (-88)

108. Daisy N. #6: 40 (-92)

108. Stephanie P. #1: 40 (-92)

110. Jim D. #4: 40 (-96)

111. Brad R. #1: 40 (-100)

112. Brandon H.: 40 (-104)

112. Harrell R. #2: 40 (-104)

112. Joe D. #1: 40 (-104)

112. Taran B.: 40 (-104)

116. April K.: 40 (-112)

117. Gutless Kye: 39 (-33)

117. Gutless Missy: 39 (-33)

117. Gutless Ray: 39 (-33)

120. Ben J. #1: 39 (-41)

120. James R.: 39 (-41)

120. Jim D. #1: 39 (-41)

120. Mike C. #2: 39 (-41)

124. Chad L. #3: 39 (-49)

124. Scott K. #1: 39 (-49)

126. Michelle D.: 39 (-69)

126. Mike W.: 39 (-69)

128. Luis B. #2: 39 (-89)

129. Jenny E.: 39 (-93)

130. Joe D. #2: 39 (-97)

131. Irene H. #2: 39 (-99)

132. Tim N.: 39 (-101)

133. Ryan W.: 39 (-105)

134. Carin C.: 38 (-30)

135. Ava S.: 38 (-34)

136. Brett W.: 38 (-42)

136. Irene H. #3: 38 (-42)

136. Jeff D.: 38 (-42)

136. Karen C.: 38 (-42)

140. Dan Dz: 38 (-50)

141. Missy W. #1: 38 (-58)

142. Chris L. #1: 38 (-62)

142. Kirt R.: 38 (-62)

144. Stephanie P. #2: 38 (-66)

145. Pete J. #1: 38 (-90)

145. Ray W. #6: 38 (-90)

147. Chris L. #2: 38 (-94)

147. Jim W.: 38 (-94)

149. Eric R. #1: 38 (-102)

149. Lisa M.: 38 (-102)

149. Mason A. #1: 38 (-102)

149. Taima B. #2: 38 (-102)

153. Brett K. #1: 38 (-114)

154. Mason A. #2: 37 (-39)

154. Pete J. #4: 37 (-39)

156. Angie B.: 37 (-43)

156. Elizabeth N.: 37 (-43)

156. Larry G. #3: 37 (-43)

159. Klei R. #2: 37 (-47)

160. Virginia L. #1: 37 (-51)

161. Damien R. #1: 37 (-55)

161. Rob I. #1: 37 (-55)

163. Taima B. #1: 37 (-59)

164. Chun W. #4: 37 (-63)

164. Ray W. #3: 37 (-63)

166. Jason G. #2: 37 (-71)

166. Presley J.: 37 (-71)

168. Dave M.: 37 (-75)

169. Ray W. #8: 37 (-87)

170. Chris M. #4: 37 (-95)

171. Paul W.: 37 (-107)

172. Szecho L. #2: 37 (-143)

173. Scott H. #2: 36 (-44)

174. Steve H.: 36 (-48)

175. Irene H. #5: 36 (-56)

176. Kansas C. #1: 36 (-60)

177. Jay H. #2: 36 (-64)

178. Ray W. #7: 36 (-112)

178. Todd K. #1: 36 (-112)

180. Joel B. #3: 36 (-116)

181. Michelle L. #4: 35 (-65)

182. Jim K.: 35 (-69)

183. Kansas C. #2: 35 (-77)

184. Brad R. #2: 35 (-81)

185. Virginia L. #2: 35 (-85)

186. Chad L. #1: 35 (-93)

186. Damien R. #3: 35 (-93)

186. Dan S.: 35 (-93)

189. Eric R. #2: 35 (-113)

190. Todd K. #3: 35 (-121)

191. Irene H. #4: 34 (-50)

192. Stan C.: 34 (-66)

193. Marc R.: 34 (-74)

194. Joel B. #1: 34 (-94)

195. Bella S.: 34 (-110)

196. Stefan K.: 33 (-39)

197. Ray W. #2: 33 (-51)

198. Ray W. #1: 33 (-67)

199. Brent E. #4: 33 (-75)

200. Jonathan V.: 33 (-79)

201. Harrell R. #4: 33 (-103)

202. Jeremy C.: 33 (-111)

202. Michelle L. #3: 33 (-111)

204. Ray W. #9: 32 (-44)

205. John E. #2: 32 (-88)

206. Chris M. #5: 32 (-104)

207. Chad L. #4: 31 (-77)

208. Damien R. #2: 31 (-113)

209. Chris M. #2: 31 (-133)

210. Harrell R. #1: 30 (-58)

211. Dan Du. #2: 30 (-78)

212. Jay H. #3: 30 (-94)

213. Marissa O.: 29 (-107)

The fun part is figuring out who is still actually still alive.  I've already figured out who can and can't get first place.  For those that are new to this process, I assume that all outcomes from here on out are equally likely .  That means that a Kansas / North Carolina finals is equally likely as a Maryland / Syracuse final.  We all know that's not true, but for the purposes of my math, they are.  From there, I calculate how many of the different scenarios result a respective bracket finishing in 1st (or a tie for 1st).

Let's start with the dearly departed brackets.  These brackets can no longer win 1st place under any circumstances:

Ally H.

Angie B.

Angie Bow.

April K.

Bella S.

Ben J. #1

Ben J. #2

Ben J. #3

Brad R. #1

Brad R. #2

Brandon H.

Brent E. #2

Brent E. #4

Brent S. #1

Brett K. #1

Brett K. #2

Brett W.

Chad L. #1

Chad L. #2

Chad L. #4

Chris L. #1

Chris L. #2

Chris M. #2

Damien R. #2

Damien R. #3

Dan S.

Dave M.

Dylan B.

Elizabeth N.

Eric R. #1

Harrell R. #1

Harrell R. #2

Harrell R. #4

Hutch H. #1

Hutch H. #2

Irene H. #2

Irene H. #5

James R.

Jason G. #2

Jay H. #2

Jay H. #3

Jeff S.

Jeremy C.

Jim D. #3

Jim K.

Joe D. #1

Joe D. #2

Joe K. #3

Joel B. #1

Joel B. #3

Joel B. #5

John E. #2

John M. #1

Jonathan V.

Kansas C. #1

Kansas C. #2

Kirt R.

Kye G. #2

Larry G. #1

Larry G. #2

Larry G. #3

Lisa M.

Luis B. #1

Luis B. #2

Marissa O.

Mason A. #1

Michelle L. #1

Michelle L. #3

Michelle L. #4

Mike C. #2

Mike S. #1

Mike S. #2

Missy W. #2

Paul W.

Pete J. #1

Pete J. #3

Pete J. #4

Presley J.

Ray W. #2

Ray W. #5

Ray W. #6

Ray W. #7

Ryan W.

Scott H. #2

Scott K. #1

Stan C.

Stefan K.

Stephanie P. #2

Steve H.

Szecho L. #2

Taima B. #1

Taran B.

Todd K. #1

Todd K. #3

Tomas L. #1

Virginia L. #1

Virginia L. #2

Wayne D. #3

William G. #1

I haven't calculated the probabilities for 2nd, 3rd or 4th, so a lot of these brackets may still be alive for those payouts (which are still pretty good).  I'll have more time to calculate those tomorrow night, so look for that.

Below are the initial probabilities of winning:

1. Daisy N. #5 : 8.7015%

2. Jackson I. : 7.8562%

3. Daisy N. #2 : 6.3262%

4. Ray W. #1 : 6.0109%

5. Rob I. #2 : 5.0338%

6. Irene H. #1 : 3.4774%

7. Chun W. #2 : 3.3325%

8. Brian S. : 3.278%

9. Dan Du. #1 : 3.1967%

10. Daisy N. #4 : 3.0914%

11. Chun W. #3 : 2.6819%

12. Klei R. #2 : 2.5909%

13. Carl B. : 2.5736%

14. Brian K. : 2.4881%

15. Jason G. #1 : 2.3803%

16. Julie S. : 2.3223%

17. Chris M. #4 : 2.2089%

18. Danny H. : 2.1204%

19. Jonathan O. : 2.0736%

20. Chrissy I. : 1.7974%

21. William G. #2 : 1.4516%

22. Michelle R. : 1.3809%

23. Joel B. #2 : 1.3315%

24. Joe K. #2 : 1.271%

25. Alyssa B. : 1.2379%

26. Szecho L. #1 : 1.2156%

27. Howard S. #1 : 1.0426%

28. Daisy N. #1 : 0.9643%

29. Chun W. #1 : 0.8504%

30. Leslie S. : 0.7919%

31. Adam S. : 0.7344%

32. Dennis R. : 0.7324%

33. Ava S. : 0.708%

34. Ray W. #9 : 0.6958%

35. Tomas L. #2 : 0.6927%

36. Klei R. #1 : 0.6352%

37. Missy W. #1 : 0.6317%

38. Daisy N. #3 : 0.5386%

39. Mason A. #2 : 0.5187%

40. Carin C. : 0.4404%

41. Chris M. #5 : 0.4389%

42. Kazelli1 : 0.4323%

43. Dustin B. : 0.4135%

44. Jay H. #1 : 0.3494%

45. Kazelli3 : 0.2807%

46. Ben J. #4 : 0.2624%

47. Ken P. : 0.2471%

47. Matt N. : 0.2471%

49. Ron B. : 0.2431%

50. Wayne D. #2 : 0.2395%

51. Ray W. #8 : 0.238%

52. Chris M. #1 : 0.236%

53. Pete J. #2 : 0.2349%

54. Gigi I. : 0.2309%

55. Kazelli2 : 0.2176%

56. Harrell R. #3 : 0.2095%

57. Joel B. #4 : 0.2075%

58. Michelle L. #2 : 0.1892%

59. Todd K. #2 : 0.1749%

60. Chris M. #3 : 0.1739%

61. Hutch H. #3 : 0.1678%

62. Craig G. : 0.1668%

63. John E. #1 : 0.1541%

64. Becky H. : 0.1525%

65. Jeff D. : 0.1495%

66. Alex I. : 0.1413%

67. Ray W. #3 : 0.1251%

68. Chad L. #3 : 0.122%

69. Dan Dz : 0.1129%

70. Roth W. : 0.1093%

71. Jim W. : 0.1037%

72. Tim N. : 0.0976%

73. Josh C. : 0.0915%

74. Wayne D. #1 : 0.0874%

75. Scott K. #2 : 0.0854%

76. Jay K. : 0.0839%

77. Marc R. : 0.0834%

78. John B. : 0.0793%

78. Stephanie P. #1 : 0.0793%

80. Chris T. : 0.0762%

81. Rob I. #1 : 0.0732%

82. Mike C. #1 : 0.0681%

83. Gutless Kye : 0.0635%

83. Gutless Missy : 0.0635%

83. Gutless Ray : 0.0635%

86. Plsczor Team : 0.0549%

87. Gary W. : 0.0508%

88. Eric R. #2 : 0.0503%

89. Irene H. #3 : 0.0488%

89. Irene H. #4 : 0.0488%

91. Brent S. #2 : 0.0381%

92. Jenny E. : 0.0366%

92. Joe K. #1 : 0.0366%

92. Karen C. : 0.0366%

95. Howard S. #2 : 0.0305%

95. Kristina H. : 0.0305%

95. Scott H. #1 : 0.0305%

98. Jim D. #1 : 0.0274%

99. Jim D. #2 : 0.0244%

99. Michelle D. : 0.0244%

101. Brent E. #3 : 0.0228%

102. Mike W. : 0.0213%

103. Arianna S. : 0.0162%

104. Bosun S. : 0.0152%

105. Daisy N. #6 : 0.0122%

105. Mindi W. : 0.0122%

107. Damien R. #1 : 0.0101%

108. Jim D. #4 : 0.0091%

109. Taima B. #2 : 0.0076%

110. Adam E. : 0.0061%

110. Chun W. #4 : 0.0061%

112. Brent E. #1 : 0.0045%

113. Dan Du. #2 : 0.004%

114. John M. #2 : 0.003%

 It's definitely a good time to be Daisy, as she has put 3 of her brackets in the top 10 of the initial probabilities.  Since all probabilities are considered even, it rewards people that pick some strange things.  For example, Daisy N. #5 has Syracuse winning everything.  Since no one else has that, virtually every scenario where Syracuse wins results in Daisy N. #5 winning.  That's a high leverage pick.  So take these rankings with a little grain of salt.

I'll be sending out the probabilities of winning 2nd, 33rd and 4th later this week.  I will also be sending out some rather lengthy posts that identify a breakdown of what all 114 brackets still alive need to have happen in order to win.  Look for those later this week.

Finally, as the next games come closer, I will be sending out the eliminations.  The goal is not to be eliminated.  The eliminations are single games where if you lose, you will be mathematically eliminated from one of the 4 payout spots.  Keep in mind that games are usually going on simultaneously, so a combination of losses could also knock you out.  It's pretty hard to cover all possible scenarios there in a shorter blog post, so I limit it to single games.  That's coming later this week also.

That's it for now.  Good luck to everyone!!!!!