Duke cruises

 Duke put on a pretty good performance tonight against Arkansas.  Honestly, it was the kind of performance I was hoping to see from Houston, but didn’t.  I know I knock Duke a lot, but I said from the beginning that this tournament was a little different.  Duke making the Final 4 is a good story in Coach K’s last year.  He has a pretty decent shot at winning the whole thing, which would be an even more incredible story.  I’m sure they will be favored in the semi-final, no matter who they play.

So, we are down to 20 people that can still win something.  I will say that it is looking VERY good for the Hornung family, as both Kristina and Matt are now over 50% in their chances to win one of the 4 places.  Given that they essentially have the same picks from here on out, it looks like they could even go 1-2, which would be pretty incredible.  Only those two and John M. #2 and Ryan W. managed to go 2/2 today.  That seems like a very low number given that 2 #2 seeds won today, but consider that the #1 & #2 overall seeds were in these regions, and Duke and Villanova weren’t considered particularly strong #2’s when the tournament began and that’s how you get what we got.

I guess it should come as no surprise that 155 people got 0 points today.  This has been a tough tournament to predict, that’s for sure.

There are still 5 people that can win something despite having a dead champion, although none of them can actually get 1^st place.  The best any of that group can do is 2^nd with Daisy N. #1, who has Gonzaga over Kansas in the finals.

96 people can’t get any more points, and therefore are probably not reading this.

Mike W. is the only person left that can still win all available remaining points.

Here’s the matrix:

Name	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
Kristina H. - Duke	46.8750%	15.6250%	6.2500%	Houston
Matt H. - Duke	Arizona	34.3750%	15.6250%	6.2500%
Amber W. - Villanova	9.3750%	12.5000%	4.6875%	4.1667%
Becky H. - Villanova	9.3750%	12.5000%	4.6875%	4.1667%
Mike W. - Kansas	7.8125%	10.4167%	8.8542%	2.6042%
John M. #2 - Duke	6.2500%	UCLA	12.5000%	6.2500%
Ryan W. - Kansas	6.2500%	3.1250%	6.2500%	9.3750%
Craig G. - Kansas	1.5625%	7.2917%	5.7292%	2.6042%
April K. - Villanova	Initial	Gonzaga	6.2500%	9.3750%
John M. #3 - North Carolina	12.5000%	3.1250%	Houston	Houston
Lindsay R. - Villanova	Initial	Gonzaga	6.2500%	9.3750%
Brent S. #1 - Duke	Arizona	Arizona	Purdue	12.5000%
Brett G. #3 - Duke	Arizona	UCLA	6.2500%	6.2500%
Irene H. #5 - Auburn	Arizona	UCLA	3.1250%	9.3750%
Kristin G. - Gonzaga	Arkansas	Arkansas	3.1250%	6.2500%
Daisy N. #2 - Gonzaga	Arizona	Arkansas	3.1250%	3.1250%
Dustin B. - Kansas	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas	6.2500%
Stefon K. - Kansas	Initial	Gonzaga	6.2500%	Purdue
Daisy N. #1 - Gonzaga	Arkansas	1.0417%	1.0417%	1.0417%
Shawn M. - Baylor	Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	1.0417%
Adalyn H. - Auburn	Tx. Tech	Providence	Tx. Tech	Providence
Adam E. - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Providence	UCLA
Adam O. #1 (CAAT I) - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan
Adam O. #2 (CAAT II) - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Adam O. #3 (CAAT III) - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Adam O. #4 (CAAT IV) - Kansas	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Alex I - Arizona	Initial	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Ally H. - Arizona	Tx. Tech	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Alyssa B. - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Amanda R. - Ohio State	Arkansas	Houston	Houston	Houston
Andrew D. #1 - Gonzaga	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
Andrew D. #2 - Gonzaga	Houston	Houston	Houston	Houston
Avery S. - Kansas	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Baily T. - Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Ben S. - Arizona	Tx. Tech	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Brad R. - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Brandon H. - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Michigan	Initial
Brent E. #1 - Michigan State	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
Brent E. #2 - Houston	Houston	Houston	Houston	Houston
Brent E. #3 - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan
Brent E. #4 - Kentucky	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan	Arizona
Brent E. #5 - Kansas	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Arizona
Brent E. #6 - Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	UCLA	UCLA
Brent S. #2 - Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Bret K. #1 - Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Houston	Houston	Houston
Bret K. #2 - Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	UCLA
Bret K. #3 - Arizona	Arizona	Providence	Providence	Providence
Brett G. #1 - Tennessee	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan
Brett G. #2 - Arizona	Gonzaga	Arizona	Tx. Tech	Arizona
Brett G. #4 - Kentucky	Michigan	Michigan	Arizona	Arizona
Brett W. - UCLA	Michigan	Arizona	Purdue	Purdue
Brian K. - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Chalk for Charity - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Arizona	Arizona
Charlotte N. - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Chris E. - Arizona	Initial	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Chris L. #1 - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan	Arizona	Arizona
Chris L. #2 - Arizona	Michigan	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Chris L. #3 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Chris L. #4 - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Michigan	Michigan
Chris L. #5 - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Chris T. - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Chrissy S - USC	Initial	Michigan	Houston	Houston
Christian C. - Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Arizona
Cicely K. - Auburn	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Colonel S. - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Colston W. - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Connor W. - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Arizona
Creighton H. - Arizona	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
Daisy N. #10 - Tennessee	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Daisy N. #3 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Daisy N. #4 - Kansas	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Daisy N. #5 - Duke	Arizona	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
Daisy N. #6 - Arizona	Initial	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Daisy N. #7 - UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
Daisy N. #8 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Daisy N. #9 - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Damien R #1 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Damien R #2 - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Dan Du. #1 - Duke	Purdue	Purdue	Providence	Purdue
Dan Du. #2 - Duke	Houston	Houston	Houston	Houston
Dan Du. #3 - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Dan McK. #1 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Dan McK. #2 - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga
Dan P. - Baylor	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Arizona
Daniel E. #1 - Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
Daniel E. #2 - UCLA	Providence	Providence	UCLA	UCLA
Daryl J. - Arizona	Tx. Tech	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Derek H. - Tennessee	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Michigan
Diana A. - Auburn	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Dustin D. #1 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga
Dustin D. #2 - Kansas	Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Arkansas	Arkansas
Dustin D. #3 - Auburn	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Dustin D. #4 - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Dylan B. #1 - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan
Dylan B. #2 - Tennessee	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Elizabeth N. #1 - Kentucky	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan	Arizona
Elizabeth N. #2 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Elliot N. - Arizona	Initial	Tx. Tech	Arizona	Arizona
Eric G. #1 - Arizona	Michigan	Arizona	Arizona	Purdue
Eric G. #2 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga
Eric S. - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Eric V. - Arizona	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Arizona
Gary W. - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Gigi I - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Arizona
Harrell R. # 1 - Virginia Tech	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Harrell R. # 2 - Tennessee	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Harrell R. # 3 - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Hero R. - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Purdue	Providence
Howard S. #1 - Auburn	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Howard S. #2 - UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
Howie G. #1 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Arizona	Arizona
Hutch H. #1 - Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Hutch H. #2 - Kansas	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Hutch H. #3 - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	UCLA	UCLA	Arkansas
Irene H. #1 - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan
Irene H. #2 - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan
Irene H. #3 - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Irene H. #4 - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Irene H. #6 - Kentucky	Tx. Tech	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Jace D. - Ohio State	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Jackson I - UCLA	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Purdue	Purdue
Jared B. - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan	Michigan
Jason S. - Duke	Purdue	Purdue	Providence	UCLA
Jaxon S. - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Jay H. #1 - Kansas	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Houston	Houston
Jay H. #2 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Jeremy W. (SI) - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Jim D. #1 - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan
Jim D. #2 - Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Jim D. #3 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Jim W. - Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
John M. #1 - Connecticut	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
JoJo D. - Kansas	UCLA	UCLA	Houston	Houston
Josh Ch. - UCLA	Initial	Arizona	Purdue	Providence
Josiah T. #1 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Josiah T. #2 - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Josiah T. #3 - Arizona	Gonzaga	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
Kansas C. - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Karen Ch. - Kansas	Gonzaga	Purdue	UCLA	UCLA
Kealoah G. - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Ken Pom - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Michigan	Michigan
Kiah H. #1 - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Kiah H. #2 - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga
Kirt R. #1 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Kirt R. #2 - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Klei R. - Arizona	Initial	Michigan	Michigan	Arizona
Kyle V. - UCLA	Tx. Tech	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
Kylee T. - Villanova	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Arizona
Luis B. #1 - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Luis B. #2 - Arizona	Gonzaga	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
Luis B. #3 - Arizona	Arizona	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
Mary Lou H. - Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Mason A. - Arizona	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Matt M. - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Matt N. - Gonzaga	Arizona	Arizona	Purdue	Purdue
Max A. #1 - Gonzaga	Initial	Tx. Tech	Michigan	Tx. Tech
Max A. #2 - Kansas	Tx. Tech	Arizona	Arizona	Purdue
Michael S. #1 (Cluck Norris) - Gonzaga	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
Michael S. #2 (Hank the Tank) - Arizona	Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Arizona	Arizona
Michelle L. #1 - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga
Michelle L. #2 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Michelle L. #3 - Baylor	Houston	Houston	Houston	Houston
Michelle L. #4 - Kansas	UCLA	UCLA	Houston	Houston
Michelle L. #5 - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Mike N  - Kansas	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Mindi W. - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Missy W. - Tennessee	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Nathan R. - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga
Nick I - USC	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Nick V. - Kentucky	Initial	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
Niren D. - Gonzaga	Tx. Tech	Arizona	Arizona	Tx. Tech
Noah N. - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Michigan	Michigan
Otis L. - Arizona	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Arizona
Owen R. - Jacksonville State	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Paul K. - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Arizona	Arizona
Paul W. - Villanova	Arizona	Arizona	UCLA	UCLA
Pete J. #1 - Tennessee	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Pete J. #2 - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga
Pete J. #3 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Pete J. #4 - Arizona	Michigan	Tx. Tech	Arizona	Arizona
Pete J. #5 - Kansas	Gonzaga	Michigan	UCLA	UCLA
Pete J. #6 - Wisconsin	Gonzaga	Michigan	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Ray Min. #1 - Baylor	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Ray Min. #2 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Reid D. - Duke	Initial	Michigan	Iowa State	Iowa State
Rex C. - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Rich F. - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Rob I #1 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Rob I #2 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Roth W. - Arizona	Arizona	Tx. Tech	Arizona	Arizona
Scarlett H. - Wisconsin	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Scott He. #1 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga
Scott He. #2 - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan
Scott K. #1 - Kansas	Arizona	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
Scott K. #2 - Kentucky	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Michigan
Stephen C. - Auburn	Initial	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
Steve Dz. #1 - Houston	Initial	Houston	UCLA	Houston
Steve Dz. #2 - Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Arizona	Purdue
Taima B. #1 - Arizona	Arizona	UCLA	Houston	Houston
Taima B. #2 - Gonzaga	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Tim K. - Tennessee	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Tisa S. - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Tomas L. - Baylor	Initial	Houston	Houston	Houston
TommyJoe V. #1 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
TommyJoe V. #2 - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
TommyJoe V. #3 - Kansas	Initial	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
TommyJoe V. #4 - Arizona	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Tucker D. - Alabama	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial
Valerie D. - Gonzaga	Arizona	Iowa State	Iowa State	Iowa State
William G. #1 - Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Purdue
William G. #2 - Villanova	Initial	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech	Tx. Tech
Zach V. - Gonzaga	Initial	Gonzaga	Initial	Initial

Oddly, Kristina H.’s chances to win go up almost 2X if Kansas loses tomorrow, even though she has them winning.  That’s because she has Villanova beating them in the Final 4.  If Kansas wins, all the people that Kansas in the Championship game still have life.  No one has Miami making it there, so she wouldn’t lose ground to anyone.  Great position to be in.

If Kansas wins:

Result	Pick
Brett G. #3 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.	Wisconsin
Irene H. #5 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.	Auburn
John M. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.	Kansas
John M. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Providence
Kristin G. is eliminated from 4th place contention.	Kansas
Kristina H. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Kansas
Ryan W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Kansas

If Miami wins:

Result	Pick
Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.	Kansas
Craig G. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Kansas
Daisy N. #1 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.	Kansas
Daisy N. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.	Kansas
Dustin B. is eliminated from 4th place contention.	Kansas
John M. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Kansas
Kristin G. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Kansas
Matt H. is eliminated from 4th place contention.	Kansas
Mike W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Kansas
Ryan W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 4th place contention.	Kansas
Shawn M. is eliminated from 4th place contention.	Kansas
Stefon K. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Kansas

So, there’s this strange concept in physics called relativity where time starts to change the faster you get to the speed of light.  There’s a similar phenomena as we get closer to the end of the pool.  Typically, you get knocked out of 1^st, and then 2^nd and then 3^rd and finally 4^th.  Often times you’ll get knocked out of more than one spot at a time if a game was particularly meaningful, but you still typically follow the same progression.

That is not true if you are amassing a big lead.  Then it kind of goes in reverse.  Notice how 4 people will get knocked out of one of the places if they Kansas wins tomorrow, even though they picked Kansas?  That is largely because the odds for the other payouts are growing to such a size that they are converging to 1^st or 2^nd or 3^rd, and that is wedging something like 4^th out.

Another reason this could happen is because the games from here on out are worth 8, 16 and 32 points respectively.  Because those points are so high, it makes it hard for a point total to fall in between other point totals, so either you can’t land in one of the 4 places.  Honestly, if this is happening to you, that typically means you are in really good shape.

Enjoy the games tomorrow.  I’ll be back with the eliminations for the last game in between games, but my guess is that less than 3 people will actually be affected by the outcome there – and that hardly anyone will get points.

Good luck!!!!!