Saturday, March 19, 2022

End of Day 3

 I told you Gonzaga was going to have to sweat out a game against Memphis.  I could feel it with the way things were going.  I’m not even sure I would say that they didn’t look like the #1 team in the country, but more that Memphis played about where their pre-season ranking had them, which was around #9 in the country as opposed to the #9 team in this region.

In the other games, St. Peter’s broke my curse of t-shirt wearing and became only the 3rd #15 seed to make the Sweet 16 after Florida Gult Coast and Oral Roberts (just last year).  That’s really impressive.  Now they get to play their next game just down the road from their school against either Purdue or Texas.  I’m solidly team Peacock, so I hope they keep winning.  It just screws so many people.

As for the Arkansas / New Mexico State game.  That was not even borderline unwatchable.  It was way over the line into total unwatchability.  NMSU had to complete a 4-point play at the end of the first half to get to 18 points.  That is not a typo.  18 points.  At one point half way though the second half, both teams were tied at 30 for it seemed like 4-5 minutes.  It was terrible.  Gonzaga didn’t play great, but they can throw out a half-assed game against Arkansas if they play the way they did today and completely roll into the Elite 8.

As for the picks today, it was a bit of a tough day to get points.  No one got any points from St. Peter’s.  North Carolina, Providence and Michigan all weren’t widely picked to make the Sweet 16.  Just tough sledding everywhere.

The best anyone did today was 6/8, and that was done by exactly one person – Adalyn H.  The only games she got wrong were St. Peter’s and Providence.  She got the other 6.  That moved her up in the total points rankings for 180th yesterday to 35th today.  That is an amazing turnaround.  I hope that offers hope to everyone.  As long as your bracket is alive, you have hope – especially given how close some of these games have been.

The average number of points won today was 6.89.  Ouch….

I was looking at the top of the total points standings, and a few things jumped out at me.  First, the top 2 entries are a mother and daughter.  I have known Becky since college days, and Ally has been entering these pools for years.  Back in the day, Ally would enter picks and I’d give them a shout out because sometimes they’d have some strange picks in them.  Now she seems to be a real force in this pool and not someone to be taken lightly.  There must be some good sports picking genes in that family.

Second thing I noticed is that 5 of the top 6 entries in points right now are women.  That’s fantastic.  I think women are underrepresented in these pools, so the fact that they are killing everyone will make it much easier for me to market this pool for other women who are sitting on the fence.  Look, there’s nothing inherent about picking basketball games that would make men do it better than women.  I think we just tend to talk about it more.  Keep up the good work, ladies.  You’ve definitely got my attention.

All right, enough jibber jabber out of me.  Here are the standings after half of the Sweet 16 is in place:

1. Becky H.: 35 (-23) - Villanova

2. Ally H.: 35 (-29) - Arizona

3. Irene H. #6: 35 (-81) - Kentucky

4. Craig G.: 34 (-18) - Kansas

4. Taima B. #1: 34 (-18) - Arizona

6. Baily T.: 34 (-34) - Gonzaga

7. Bret K. #2: 34 (-38) - Gonzaga

8. Jay H. #1: 34 (-50) - Kansas

9. Ray Min. #1: 34 (-102) - Baylor

10. Brent E. #1: 33 (-15) - Michigan State

10. Brent E. #2: 33 (-15) - Houston

12. Bret K. #3: 33 (-19) - Arizona

13. Daniel E. #2: 33 (-21) - UCLA

14. Andrew D. #1: 33 (-33) - Gonzaga

14. Max A. #2: 33 (-33) - Kansas

16. Jaxon S.: 33 (-37) - Gonzaga

17. Dustin B.: 32 (-16) - Kansas

18. Irene H. #5: 32 (-18) - Auburn

19. Andrew D. #2: 32 (-22) - Gonzaga

20. Kristina H.: 32 (-26) - Duke

21. Chalk for Charity: 32 (-32) - Gonzaga

22. Valerie D.: 32 (-36) - Gonzaga

23. Bret K. #1: 32 (-46) - Gonzaga

24. April K.: 32 (-48) - Villanova

24. Cicely K.: 32 (-48) - Auburn

24. Irene H. #1: 32 (-48) - Gonzaga

24. Jason S.: 32 (-48) - Duke

24. Lindsay R.: 32 (-48) - Villanova

29. Scott He. #2: 32 (-60) - Gonzaga

30. Scott K. #2: 32 (-78) - Kentucky

31. Matt N.: 31 (-21) - Gonzaga

32. William G. #1: 31 (-25) - Gonzaga

33. Brian K.: 31 (-27) - Gonzaga

33. Daisy N. #5: 31 (-27) - Duke

35. Adalyn H.: 31 (-29) - Auburn

35. Brent E. #6: 31 (-29) - Arizona

37. Brent E. #3: 31 (-33) - Gonzaga

37. Hutch H. #1: 31 (-33) - Arizona

39. Chris T.: 31 (-35) - Arizona

40. Dustin D. #2: 31 (-37) - Kansas

41. Pete J. #3: 31 (-43) - Gonzaga

42. Dylan B. #1: 31 (-51) - Gonzaga

43. Shawn M.: 31 (-91) - Baylor

44. Brent E. #4: 31 (-93) - Kentucky

45. Harrell R. # 3: 31 (-97) - Kentucky

46. Derek H.: 31 (-105) - Tennessee

47. Creghton H.: 30 (-22) - Arizona

47. Pete J. #4: 30 (-22) - Arizona

49. Kristin G.: 30 (-24) - Gonzaga

50. Niren D.: 30 (-26) - Gonzaga

51. Luis B. #3: 30 (-30) - Arizona

52. Stephen C.: 30 (-32) - Auburn

53. Daisy N. #1: 30 (-34) - Gonzaga

53. Daisy N. #2: 30 (-34) - Gonzaga

55. Scott He. #1: 30 (-38) - Gonzaga

56. Josiah T. #1: 30 (-42) - Gonzaga

56. Rex C.: 30 (-42) - Arizona

58. Pete J. #6: 30 (-48) - Wisconsin

59. Diana A.: 30 (-56) - Auburn

60. Jared B.: 30 (-58) - Gonzaga

61. Daisy N. #3: 30 (-74) - Gonzaga

62. Tomas L.: 30 (-84) - Baylor

63. Nick I: 30 (-88) - USC

64. Dan P.: 30 (-90) - Baylor

65. Harrell R. # 2: 30 (-110) - Tennessee

66. Chrissy S: 30 (-116) - USC

67. Brett G. #3: 29 (-23) - Duke

67. Scott K. #1: 29 (-23) - Kansas

69. Mason A.: 29 (-27) - Arizona

70. Daniel E. #1: 29 (-29) - Purdue

70. Max A. #1: 29 (-29) - Gonzaga

72. Dustin D. #4: 29 (-31) - Arizona

72. Nathan R.: 29 (-31) - Gonzaga

72. Taima B. #2: 29 (-31) - Gonzaga

75. Brett G. #2: 29 (-33) - Arizona

75. Howard S. #1: 29 (-33) - Auburn

75. Matt H.: 29 (-33) - Duke

78. Itene H. #2: 29 (-35) - Gonzaga

78. Paul W.: 29 (-35) - Villanova

80. Howie G. #1: 29 (-37) - Gonzaga

80. Kealoah G.: 29 (-37) - Gonzaga

80. Pete J. #5: 29 (-37) - Kansas

83. Jim D. #2: 29 (-39) - Arizona

83. Klei R. #1: 29 (-39) - Arizona

85. Ken Pom: 29 (-41) - Gonzaga

86. Colston W.: 29 (-43) - Arizona

86. Stefon K.: 29 (-43) - Kansas

88. Amber W.: 29 (-45) - Villanova

89. Brent S. #2: 29 (-47) - Arizona

89. Dustin D. #3: 29 (-47) - Auburn

91. John M. #3: 29 (-51) - North Carolina

91. Mike N : 29 (-51) - Kansas

93. Steve Dz. #2: 29 (-53) - Purdue

94. Daryl J.: 29 (-59) - Arizona

95. Josiah T. #2: 29 (-87) - Kentucky

96. Brett G. #4: 29 (-89) - Kentucky

96. Pete J. #2: 29 (-89) - Kentucky

98. Pete J. #1: 29 (-93) - Tennessee

99. Harrell R. # 1: 29 (-97) - Virginia Tech

100. Mindi W.: 29 (-101) - Kentucky

101. Tim K.: 29 (-119) - Tennessee

102. Damien R #2: 28 (-24) - Gonzaga

102. Howard S. #2: 28 (-24) - UCLA

102. Luis B. #1: 28 (-24) - Gonzaga

105. Ben S.: 28 (-26) - Arizona

105. Mike W.: 28 (-26) - Kansas

107. Chris L. #1: 28 (-28) - Gonzaga

107. Chris L. #2: 28 (-28) - Arizona

107. Kyle V.: 28 (-28) - UCLA

107. Michael S. #1 (Cluck Norris): 28 (-28) - Gonzaga

111. Brett W.: 28 (-30) - UCLA

111. Chris E.: 28 (-30) - Arizona

111. Josiah T. #3: 28 (-30) - Arizona

111. Michael S. #2 (Hank the Tank): 28 (-30) - Arizona

115. Hutch H. #3: 28 (-32) - Gonzaga

116. Connor W.: 28 (-34) - Arizona

116. Jackson I: 28 (-34) - UCLA

118. Chris L. #3: 28 (-36) - Gonzaga

118. Christian C.: 28 (-36) - Gonzaga

120. Amanda R.: 28 (-40) - Ohio State

120. Gary W.: 28 (-40) - Gonzaga

120. Kansas C.: 28 (-40) - Gonzaga

123. Alyssa B.: 28 (-42) - Arizona

123. Eric V.: 28 (-42) - Arizona

123. Kirt R. #1: 28 (-42) - Gonzaga

126. Steve Dz. #1: 28 (-46) - Houston

127. Chris L. #4: 28 (-52) - Arizona

127. Luis B. #2: 28 (-52) - Arizona

129. Kylee T.: 28 (-54) - Villanova

130. Brent E. #5: 28 (-56) - Kansas

131. Avery S.: 28 (-60) - Kansas

131. Irene H. #4: 28 (-60) - Arizona

133. Damien R #1: 28 (-74) - Gonzaga

134. Dylan B. #2: 28 (-84) - Tennessee

135. Colonel S.: 28 (-88) - Kentucky

136. Daisy N. #10: 28 (-96) - Tennessee

136. Jim D. #1: 28 (-96) - Kentucky

138. Missy W.: 28 (-98) - Tennessee

139. Karen Ch.: 27 (-25) - Kansas

140. Jim D. #3: 27 (-29) - Gonzaga

141. Brent S. #1: 27 (-33) - Duke

141. Elliot N.: 27 (-33) - Arizona

143. Daisy N. #4: 27 (-39) - Kansas

144. Brad R.: 27 (-41) - Gonzaga

145. Dustin D. #1: 27 (-43) - Gonzaga

146. Daisy N. #6: 27 (-51) - Arizona

146. Ryan W.: 27 (-51) - Kansas

148. Daisy N. #7: 27 (-53) - UCLA

149. Chris L. #5: 27 (-65) - Arizona

149. Rich F.: 27 (-65) - Gonzaga

151. Eric S.: 27 (-67) - Arizona

152. Dan McK. #2: 27 (-85) - Kentucky

153. Mary Lou H.: 26 (-30) - Arizona

154. Roth W.: 26 (-32) - Arizona

155. Elizabeth N. #2: 26 (-38) - Gonzaga

156. Daisy N. #8: 26 (-42) - Gonzaga

156. Jay H. #2: 26 (-42) - Gonzaga

156. TommyJoe V. #1: 26 (-42) - Gonzaga

156. TommyJoe V. #2: 26 (-42) - Gonzaga

156. TommyJoe V. #3: 26 (-42) - Kansas

156. TommyJoe V. #4: 26 (-42) - Arizona

162. Adam O. #1 (CAAT I): 26 (-44) - Arizona

162. Adam O. #2 (CAAT II): 26 (-44) - Gonzaga

162. Adam O. #4 (CAAT IV): 26 (-44) - Kansas

165. Alex I: 26 (-46) - Arizona

166. Jeremy W. (SI): 26 (-66) - Arizona

167. William G. #2: 26 (-68) - Villanova

168. Adam O. #3 (CAAT III): 26 (-92) - Kentucky

169. Matt M.: 26 (-94) - Kentucky

170. Brandon H.: 26 (-96) - Kentucky

171. Nick V.: 26 (-98) - Kentucky

172. John M. #1: 26 (-102) - Connecticut

173. Kiah H. #1: 26 (-104) - Kentucky

174. Brett G. #1: 26 (-110) - Tennessee

175. Irene H. #3: 26 (-116) - Kentucky

176. Owen R.: 26 (-122) - Jacksonville State

177. Tisa S.: 25 (-27) - Gonzaga

178. Jim W.: 25 (-33) - Arizona

179. Dan Du. #1: 25 (-35) - Duke

180. Noah N.: 25 (-41) - Arizona

181. Hutch H. #2: 25 (-43) - Kansas

182. Kirt R. #2: 25 (-45) - Arizona

183. Dan Du. #3: 25 (-53) - Gonzaga

184. Hero R.: 25 (-55) - Gonzaga

184. Otis L.: 25 (-55) - Arizona

186. Daisy N. #9: 25 (-61) - Arizona

186. Rob I #2: 25 (-61) - Gonzaga

188. Zach V.: 25 (-75) - Gonzaga

189. Kiah H. #2: 25 (-93) - Kentucky

190. Paul K.: 24 (-38) - Arizona

191. Eric G. #2: 24 (-42) - Gonzaga

192. Gigi I: 24 (-50) - Gonzaga

193. Michelle L. #2: 24 (-52) - Gonzaga

194. Dan McK. #1: 24 (-54) - Gonzaga

195. Ray Min. #2: 24 (-58) - Gonzaga

196. Scarlett H.: 24 (-62) - Wisconsin

197. Rob I #1: 24 (-72) - Gonzaga

198. Michelle L. #3: 24 (-92) - Baylor

199. Elizabeth N. #1: 24 (-96) - Kentucky

200. Adam E.: 24 (-106) - Kentucky

201. Josh Ch.: 23 (-45) - UCLA

202. John M. #2: 23 (-49) - Duke

203. JoJo D.: 23 (-69) - Kansas

204. Jace D.: 23 (-73) - Ohio State

205. Eric G. #1: 22 (-34) - Arizona

206. Michelle L. #1: 22 (-38) - Arizona

206. Michelle L. #4: 22 (-38) - Kansas

208. Dan Du. #2: 22 (-48) - Duke

208. Reid D.: 22 (-48) - Duke

210. Charlotte N.: 22 (-54) - Gonzaga

211. Michelle L. #5: 22 (-100) - Kentucky

212. Tucker D.: 18 (-118) - Alabama

…and the net points rankings:

1. Brent E. #1 (18)

1. Brent E. #2 (18)

3. Craig G. (16)

3. Taima B. #1 (16)

3. Dustin B. (16)

6. Bret K. #3 (14)

6. Irene H. #5 (14)

8. Becky H. (12)

8. Daniel E. #2 (12)

10. Andrew D. #2 (10)

10. Matt N. (10)

12. Creghton H. (8)

12. Pete J. #4 (8)

14. Ally H. (6)

14. Kristina H. (6)

14. William G. #1 (6)

14. Kristin G. (6)

14. Brett G. #3 (6)

14. Scott K. #1 (6)

20. Brian K. (4)

20. Daisy N. #5 (4)

20. Niren D. (4)

20. Damien R #2 (4)

20. Howard S. #2 (4)

20. Luis B. #1 (4)

26. Adalyn H. (2)

26. Brent E. #6 (2)

26. Mason A. (2)

26. Ben S. (2)

26. Mike W. (2)

26. Karen Ch. (2)

32. Baily T. (0)

32. Andrew D. #1 (0)

32. Max A. #2 (0)

32. Chalk for Charity (0)

32. Luis B. #3 (0)

32. Daniel E. #1 (0)

32. Max A. #1 (0)

32. Chris L. #1 (0)

32. Chris L. #2 (0)

32. Kyle V. (0)

32. Michael S. #1 (Cluck Norris) (0)

43. Brent E. #3 (-2)

43. Hutch H. #1 (-2)

43. Stephen C. (-2)

43. Dustin D. #4 (-2)

43. Nathan R. (-2)

43. Taima B. #2 (-2)

43. Brett W. (-2)

43. Chris E. (-2)

43. Josiah T. #3 (-2)

43. Michael S. #2 (Hank the Tank) (-2)

43. Jim D. #3 (-2)

43. Tisa S. (-2)

55. Bret K. #2 (-4)

55. Jaxon S. (-4)

55. Valerie D. (-4)

55. Chris T. (-4)

55. Daisy N. #1 (-4)

55. Daisy N. #2 (-4)

55. Brett G. #2 (-4)

55. Howard S. #1 (-4)

55. Matt H. (-4)

55. Hutch H. #3 (-4)

55. Mary Lou H. (-4)

66. Dustin D. #2 (-6)

66. Itene H. #2 (-6)

66. Paul W. (-6)

66. Connor W. (-6)

66. Jackson I (-6)

66. Brent S. #1 (-6)

66. Elliot N. (-6)

66. Roth W. (-6)

74. Scott He. #1 (-8)

74. Howie G. #1 (-8)

74. Kealoah G. (-8)

74. Pete J. #5 (-8)

74. Chris L. #3 (-8)

74. Christian C. (-8)

74. Jim W. (-8)

81. Jim D. #2 (-10)

81. Klei R. #1 (-10)

81. Dan Du. #1 (-10)

84. Pete J. #3 (-12)

84. Josiah T. #1 (-12)

84. Rex C. (-12)

84. Ken Pom (-12)

84. Amanda R. (-12)

84. Gary W. (-12)

84. Kansas C. (-12)

84. Daisy N. #4 (-12)

84. Elizabeth N. #2 (-12)

84. Eric G. #1 (-12)

94. Bret K. #1 (-14)

94. Colston W. (-14)

94. Stefon K. (-14)

94. Alyssa B. (-14)

94. Eric V. (-14)

94. Kirt R. #1 (-14)

94. Brad R. (-14)

94. Paul K. (-14)

102. Jay H. #1 (-16)

102. April K. (-16)

102. Cicely K. (-16)

102. Irene H. #1 (-16)

102. Jason S. (-16)

102. Lindsay R. (-16)

102. Amber W. (-16)

102. Dustin D. #1 (-16)

102. Daisy N. #8 (-16)

102. Jay H. #2 (-16)

102. TommyJoe V. #1 (-16)

102. TommyJoe V. #2 (-16)

102. TommyJoe V. #3 (-16)

102. TommyJoe V. #4 (-16)

102. Noah N. (-16)

102. Michelle L. #1 (-16)

102. Michelle L. #4 (-16)

119. Pete J. #6 (-18)

119. Brent S. #2 (-18)

119. Dustin D. #3 (-18)

119. Steve Dz. #1 (-18)

119. Adam O. #1 (CAAT I) (-18)

119. Adam O. #2 (CAAT II) (-18)

119. Adam O. #4 (CAAT IV) (-18)

119. Hutch H. #2 (-18)

119. Eric G. #2 (-18)

128. Dylan B. #1 (-20)

128. Alex I (-20)

128. Kirt R. #2 (-20)

131. John M. #3 (-22)

131. Mike N  (-22)

131. Josh Ch. (-22)

134. Steve Dz. #2 (-24)

134. Chris L. #4 (-24)

134. Luis B. #2 (-24)

134. Daisy N. #6 (-24)

134. Ryan W. (-24)

139. Diana A. (-26)

139. Kylee T. (-26)

139. Daisy N. #7 (-26)

139. Gigi I (-26)

139. John M. #2 (-26)

139. Dan Du. #2 (-26)

139. Reid D. (-26)

146. Scott He. #2 (-28)

146. Jared B. (-28)

146. Brent E. #5 (-28)

146. Dan Du. #3 (-28)

146. Michelle L. #2 (-28)

151. Daryl J. (-30)

151. Hero R. (-30)

151. Otis L. (-30)

151. Dan McK. #1 (-30)

155. Avery S. (-32)

155. Irene H. #4 (-32)

155. Charlotte N. (-32)

158. Ray Min. #2 (-34)

159. Daisy N. #9 (-36)

159. Rob I #2 (-36)

161. Chris L. #5 (-38)

161. Rich F. (-38)

161. Scarlett H. (-38)

164. Eric S. (-40)

164. Jeremy W. (SI) (-40)

166. William G. #2 (-42)

167. Daisy N. #3 (-44)

168. Irene H. #6 (-46)

168. Scott K. #2 (-46)

168. Damien R #1 (-46)

168. JoJo D. (-46)

172. Rob I #1 (-48)

173. Zach V. (-50)

173. Jace D. (-50)

175. Tomas L. (-54)

176. Dylan B. #2 (-56)

177. Nick I (-58)

177. Josiah T. #2 (-58)

177. Dan McK. #2 (-58)

180. Shawn M. (-60)

180. Dan P. (-60)

180. Brett G. #4 (-60)

180. Pete J. #2 (-60)

180. Colonel S. (-60)

185. Brent E. #4 (-62)

186. Pete J. #1 (-64)

187. Harrell R. # 3 (-66)

187. Adam O. #3 (CAAT III) (-66)

189. Ray Min. #1 (-68)

189. Harrell R. # 1 (-68)

189. Daisy N. #10 (-68)

189. Jim D. #1 (-68)

189. Matt M. (-68)

189. Kiah H. #2 (-68)

189. Michelle L. #3 (-68)

196. Missy W. (-70)

196. Brandon H. (-70)

198. Mindi W. (-72)

198. Nick V. (-72)

198. Elizabeth N. #1 (-72)

201. Derek H. (-74)

202. John M. #1 (-76)

203. Kiah H. #1 (-78)

203. Michelle L. #5 (-78)

205. Harrell R. # 2 (-80)

206. Adam E. (-82)

207. Brett G. #1 (-84)

208. Chrissy S (-86)

209. Tim K. (-90)

209. Irene H. #3 (-90)

211. Owen R. (-96)

212. Tucker D. (-100)

There are 3 brackets out there that can still get all remaining points (Brent E. #1, Brent E. #2 & Dustin B.).  That’s pretty much where you want to be.  Give yourself a shot at points, even if you don’t actually get them in the end.  You will at least have more chances to win than people that can’t win points no matter what.

52 people still have their entire Final 4 in tact.  That may be crucial to winning this pool as well.  Typically the winner has at least 3 of the Final 4, with the 2 finalists and the champions right – unless it’s an oddball champion, then you don’t need as much to go your way.  If it’s Gonzaga, Arizona or Kansas, you better be loading up on points right now.

Only 5 people have their entire Elite 8 in tact.  The three people I mentioned earlier that have everyone still alive from here out, and Irene H. #5 and Karen Ch.  I tell ya’, women are really doing well this year.  Great picking so far.

So, after tomorrow, I’ll still be sending out updated points totals every so often, but I will be calculating the chances everyone has to win this pool (or get 2nd, 3rd or 4th).  From there, I will mostly be seding out updated probabilities of winning as my main source of keeping score.  Bear in mind that points are still what win it for you, but I think knowing your percent chances to win and how those change after each game is more interesting.  Often your odds won’t change after a game.  Sometimes your odds will go up or down on a game you don’t think you care at all about.  That’s because nothing is in a vacuum.  Just because you don’t really care about a game, you may have to because someone else can pass you based on the results of that game in the standings, and you may not have an avenue to pass them back.  It’s all very fascinating (at least to me).

I’ll be sending those out tomorrow night.

As for the games tomorrow, they are going on the same schedule as today.  All but 2 games are in the dreaded 4.5 – 8 point spread range.  That’s about 66-75% chance of winning range.  That’s not great.  I expect to see more carnage tomorrow.  I just hope it’s not carnage I want to see (see: TCU / Arizona).

Vegas Line: Houston -4.5

Picks for Illinois: 102

Picks for Houston: 92

Picks for Other: 18

My love for Houston this season should be well known by now.  IF they were in the East or Midwest bracket, I’d have them in the Final 4.  Sadly they are in this one.  Somewhat surprising to me is that they are favored in this game, when it would technically be Illinois that is the better seed.  I think this is the only game in the second round like this.  It looks like Vegas kind of likes Houston as much as I do.  Then again, Illinois didn’t look so hot in the last game, so I’m sure that was a factor as well.  I am going to be pulling hard for the Cougars.

Good luck everyone!!!!!!

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