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I was able to finally crank out the probabilities for winning this thing, as well as the probabilities for getting 2nd, 3rd or 4th. I always give this same disclaimer every year, but if there’s anyone new – here it is: These odds aren’t the actual odds of you winning, they are the probability of you winning if every game was a coin flip. That means that it weights a Gonzaga/Arizona final equally as likely as a St. Peter’s/Iowa State final. We all know that’s not really how it works, but I haven’t spent the time to figure out an efficient way to put weights on games. It would be more complicated than it sounds. What I do for this is figure out all the possible outcomes of the tournament, and then figure out all the scores for everyone’s entry over all those outcomes. I then take the number of scenarios in which you win and divide it by the total possible outcomes, and you get a probability of winning. For ties, I divide the outcome between the two tied entries. So, if you would win outright, you’d get 1 added to the numerator. If you are tied with one other person, you both would get 0.5.
What that does, especially early on is provide some somewhat
strange outcomes. For example, John M.
#3 is currently in 114th place in points. However, he has North Carolina beating
Providence in the finals. Not many
people have either of those teams in the finals, much less winning it all. Therefore, almost any scenario that has those
two teams making the finals or even North Carolina winning it all, John M. #3
is probably going to win the pool. That’s
a lot of scenarios, so his odds right now are higher. He is what I like to call “leveraged”, since
he has 3,167 way to win, and if North Carolina loses it’s next game, he’s down
to 220 ways to win. More on that later.
Other people have the opposite issue. They don’t look like they have great odds
right now, but it will take a lot of things to go against them in order to get
knocked out. The “Chalk for Charity”
bracket that is only by the seeds is usually like this, but really anyone with a
lot of points and Gonzaga v Arizona in the finals probably falls in this
category.
So, without any further ado, let me unveil first the unlucky
52 entries that are totally eliminated from any of the 4 payouts:
|
Adam O. #2 (CAAT
II) - Gonzaga |
|
Adam O. #3 (CAAT
III) - Kentucky |
|
Alyssa B. -
Arizona |
|
Avery S. - Kansas |
|
Charlotte N. -
Gonzaga |
|
Chris L. #5 -
Arizona |
|
Colonel S. -
Kentucky |
|
Colston W. -
Arizona |
|
Daisy N. #10 -
Tennessee |
|
Daisy N. #3 -
Gonzaga |
|
Daisy N. #8 -
Gonzaga |
|
Daisy N. #9 -
Arizona |
|
Damien R #1 -
Gonzaga |
|
Dan McK. #1 -
Gonzaga |
|
Diana A. - Auburn |
|
Dustin D. #4 -
Arizona |
|
Elizabeth N. #2 -
Gonzaga |
|
Eric S. - Arizona |
|
Gary W. - Gonzaga |
|
Harrell R. # 1 -
Virginia Tech |
|
Harrell R. # 2 -
Tennessee |
|
Harrell R. # 3 -
Kentucky |
|
Irene H. #3 -
Kentucky |
|
Irene H. #4 -
Arizona |
|
Jace D. - Ohio
State |
|
Jeremy W. (SI) -
Arizona |
|
John M. #1 -
Connecticut |
|
Josiah T. #2 -
Kentucky |
|
Kiah H. #1 -
Kentucky |
|
Kirt R. #1 -
Gonzaga |
|
Kirt R. #2 -
Arizona |
|
Matt M. -
Kentucky |
|
Michelle L. #2 -
Gonzaga |
|
Michelle L. #5 -
Kentucky |
|
Mindi W. -
Kentucky |
|
Missy W. -
Tennessee |
|
Nick I - USC |
|
Owen R. -
Jacksonville State |
|
Pete J. #1 -
Tennessee |
|
Pete J. #3 -
Gonzaga |
|
Ray Min. #1 -
Baylor |
|
Ray Min. #2 -
Gonzaga |
|
Rex C. - Arizona |
|
Rob I #1 -
Gonzaga |
|
Rob I #2 -
Gonzaga |
|
Scarlett H. -
Wisconsin |
|
Tim K. -
Tennessee |
|
TommyJoe V. #1 -
Gonzaga |
|
TommyJoe V. #2 -
Gonzaga |
|
TommyJoe V. #4 -
Arizona |
|
Tucker D. -
Alabama |
|
Zach V. - Gonzaga |
There are a lot of people in there where it’s easy to see why
they are knocked out because they lost their champion. Others had a live champion, but their brackets
are too similar to others such that they could overcome a points deficit.
So, I’m going to use the matrix again this year. For those unfamiliar, this matrix is ranked
by the odds of winning something (not just first). If you have a number in any of the 4 columns
next to your name, that is your chance of winning that place. Remember that the person with the second best
odds for 1st place is not the person with the best odds for 2nd
place. That’s not how this works.
As people get eliminated, whatever percentages they had will
flow to someone else who is still alive, until only one person has 100%. It’s kind of like a poker tournament in that
respect, only instead of chips, you are trying to amass percentage points.
Here is the matrix:
|
Name |
1st Place |
2nd Place |
3rd Place |
4th Place |
|
Brent E. #2 -
Houston |
10.2010% |
2.8709% |
2.3557% |
1.5211% |
|
Bret K. #3 -
Arizona |
7.2622% |
4.7996% |
2.7766% |
1.8029% |
|
Dustin B. -
Kansas |
4.3055% |
3.3269% |
5.1811% |
3.5021% |
|
Kristina H. -
Duke |
5.8553% |
3.0467% |
2.9125% |
2.6127% |
|
John M. #3 -
North Carolina |
9.3404% |
1.5802% |
1.2063% |
0.8916% |
|
Becky H. - Villanova |
4.5329% |
3.2752% |
2.5126% |
2.2607% |
|
Daniel E. #2 -
UCLA |
5.4204% |
1.5448% |
2.5863% |
2.2638% |
|
Brent E. #1 -
Michigan State |
5.1941% |
2.6301% |
1.7871% |
0.9678% |
|
Bret K. #1 -
Gonzaga |
1.1571% |
1.7573% |
4.1752% |
2.3594% |
|
Craig G. - Kansas |
2.1403% |
2.0571% |
2.1353% |
1.8073% |
|
Daniel E. #1 -
Purdue |
3.2455% |
3.2398% |
0.8111% |
0.8025% |
|
Steve Dz. #1 -
Houston |
Initial |
6.2134% |
0.7950% |
1.0476% |
|
Amber W. -
Villanova |
1.1414% |
3.4192% |
1.8239% |
1.5503% |
|
Steve Dz. #2 -
Purdue |
3.4607% |
3.1077% |
0.6576% |
0.6831% |
|
Paul W. - Villanova |
2.2746% |
1.4018% |
1.9236% |
2.1907% |
|
Adalyn H. -
Auburn |
1.9277% |
2.4119% |
1.8585% |
1.1139% |
|
Valerie D. -
Gonzaga |
2.3547% |
1.9518% |
1.6777% |
1.3227% |
|
Kristin G. -
Gonzaga |
1.7980% |
1.8425% |
1.8025% |
1.8411% |
|
Taima B. #1 -
Arizona |
1.8265% |
1.8547% |
1.8625% |
1.7208% |
|
Mike W. - Kansas |
1.6083% |
2.1916% |
1.7496% |
1.5286% |
|
Howard S. #2 -
UCLA |
1.2716% |
2.3244% |
1.7359% |
1.7110% |
|
Kyle V. - UCLA |
1.3692% |
2.1855% |
1.6779% |
1.6763% |
|
Luis B. #3 -
Arizona |
0.9216% |
1.2309% |
1.8560% |
2.3760% |
|
Scott K. #1 -
Kansas |
0.3540% |
1.3997% |
1.9352% |
2.6767% |
|
Irene H. #5 -
Auburn |
0.8759% |
1.7288% |
1.3438% |
1.8158% |
|
Matt H. - Duke |
0.6856% |
1.7741% |
1.4730% |
1.5376% |
|
Brett G. #3 -
Duke |
0.5885% |
1.2530% |
1.7984% |
1.4054% |
|
Brett W. - UCLA |
0.2960% |
0.8677% |
1.3163% |
2.2830% |
|
Daisy N. #5 -
Duke |
0.5651% |
1.2049% |
1.4369% |
1.4730% |
|
Creighton H. -
Arizona |
0.9354% |
0.7217% |
1.5249% |
1.4066% |
|
Max A. #2 -
Kansas |
0.8881% |
0.7222% |
1.3062% |
1.5944% |
|
Jason S. - Duke |
0.6714% |
1.2238% |
1.2634% |
1.3245% |
|
Amanda R. - Ohio
State |
0.9145% |
1.6451% |
0.9831% |
0.6815% |
|
Ally H. - Arizona |
0.5452% |
0.9673% |
1.1790% |
1.4349% |
|
Andrew D. #2 -
Gonzaga |
1.1378% |
0.9279% |
1.0220% |
1.0230% |
|
Brent E. #6 -
Arizona |
0.8057% |
0.9364% |
0.8395% |
1.0525% |
|
April K. -
Villanova |
Initial |
Initial |
2.0894% |
1.5352% |
|
Kylee T. -
Villanova |
0.3113% |
1.4008% |
0.8881% |
0.9979% |
|
Jackson I - UCLA |
0.2767% |
0.8453% |
1.3306% |
1.1078% |
|
Hutch H. #2 -
Kansas |
1.1312% |
1.1149% |
0.6989% |
0.6022% |
|
Dan Du. #1 - Duke |
0.6973% |
0.5706% |
0.9419% |
1.0390% |
|
Lindsay R. -
Villanova |
Initial |
0.1923% |
1.2054% |
1.7049% |
|
Daryl J. - Arizona |
0.4008% |
0.6815% |
0.8003% |
0.7725% |
|
Bret K. #2 -
Gonzaga |
0.5292% |
0.5758% |
0.6573% |
0.7856% |
|
Brent S. #1 -
Duke |
0.2899% |
0.4364% |
0.6958% |
1.0628% |
|
Pete J. #6 -
Wisconsin |
0.0122% |
0.3174% |
0.7640% |
1.2970% |
|
Brett G. #2 -
Arizona |
0.1984% |
0.7904% |
0.6526% |
0.7181% |
|
Daisy N. #7 -
UCLA |
0.5310% |
0.8850% |
0.5249% |
0.3891% |
|
Alex I - Arizona |
Initial |
1.1658% |
0.8021% |
0.3525% |
|
Pete J. #4 -
Arizona |
0.1628% |
0.3952% |
0.6302% |
1.1292% |
|
Hero R. - Gonzaga |
Initial |
0.6546% |
0.2945% |
1.3229% |
|
Otis L. - Arizona |
0.4140% |
0.5575% |
0.6668% |
0.6187% |
|
Karen Ch. -
Kansas |
0.1801% |
0.5880% |
0.8189% |
0.6499% |
|
Michelle L. #3 -
Baylor |
0.1038% |
0.4018% |
0.9258% |
0.7125% |
|
Jay H. #1 -
Kansas |
0.2696% |
0.5722% |
0.6190% |
0.6322% |
|
Daisy N. #1 -
Gonzaga |
0.2858% |
0.5511% |
0.5230% |
0.6594% |
|
Irene H. #6 -
Kentucky |
0.1211% |
0.2977% |
0.8262% |
0.7582% |
|
Hutch H. #1 -
Arizona |
0.2858% |
0.3737% |
0.5290% |
0.7251% |
|
Daisy N. #2 -
Gonzaga |
0.4567% |
0.3456% |
0.5507% |
0.5516% |
|
Matt N. - Gonzaga |
0.5549% |
0.4160% |
0.4495% |
0.4459% |
|
Michelle L. #4 -
Kansas |
0.5391% |
0.4608% |
0.3128% |
0.5079% |
|
Josh Ch. - UCLA |
Initial |
0.2792% |
0.9204% |
0.6116% |
|
Mike N - Kansas |
0.1770% |
0.4562% |
0.4679% |
0.6593% |
|
Michael S. #2
(Hank the Tank) - Arizona |
0.1404% |
0.3642% |
0.3967% |
0.7060% |
|
Jim D. #2 -
Arizona |
0.5295% |
0.4801% |
0.2106% |
0.3741% |
|
Ryan W. - Kansas |
0.1465% |
0.1678% |
0.3916% |
0.8403% |
|
Christian C. -
Gonzaga |
0.1068% |
0.3884% |
0.5628% |
0.4164% |
|
Dustin D. #2 -
Kansas |
0.0793% |
0.2523% |
0.5086% |
0.5709% |
|
Dustin D. #3 -
Auburn |
0.0122% |
0.1099% |
0.4771% |
0.7359% |
|
Mary Lou H. -
Arizona |
0.2686% |
0.3591% |
0.4140% |
0.2780% |
|
William G. #2 -
Villanova |
Initial |
0.1434% |
0.5081% |
0.6302% |
|
Taima B. #2 -
Gonzaga |
0.1923% |
0.3176% |
0.3995% |
0.3686% |
|
Baily T. -
Gonzaga |
0.1928% |
0.3425% |
0.3020% |
0.4199% |
|
Elliot N. -
Arizona |
Initial |
0.1943% |
0.4465% |
0.5619% |
|
Niren D. -
Gonzaga |
0.1984% |
0.2342% |
0.3334% |
0.4013% |
|
Dan Du. #2 - Duke |
0.0987% |
0.3172% |
0.2911% |
0.4333% |
|
Adam E. -
Kentucky |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0966% |
0.9978% |
|
Ben S. - Arizona |
0.1795% |
0.2228% |
0.2950% |
0.3896% |
|
Damien R #2 -
Gonzaga |
0.1282% |
0.2100% |
0.3278% |
0.3270% |
|
Stephen C. -
Auburn |
Initial |
0.2167% |
0.3347% |
0.4318% |
|
Luis B. #1 -
Gonzaga |
0.1058% |
0.1958% |
0.2762% |
0.3044% |
|
Brian K. -
Gonzaga |
0.0926% |
0.2223% |
0.2810% |
0.2807% |
|
Stefon K. -
Kansas |
Initial |
Initial |
0.7599% |
0.1083% |
|
Jim W. - Arizona |
0.1465% |
0.1465% |
0.2930% |
0.2716% |
|
John M. #2 - Duke |
0.1902% |
0.2950% |
0.1984% |
0.1607% |
|
Eric G. #1 -
Arizona |
0.0244% |
0.1536% |
0.1851% |
0.4654% |
|
Roth W. - Arizona |
0.1831% |
0.1099% |
0.2502% |
0.2686% |
|
Dan P. - Baylor |
0.0671% |
0.1709% |
0.1801% |
0.3693% |
|
Chalk for Charity
- Gonzaga |
0.0183% |
0.1371% |
0.2732% |
0.3389% |
|
Brent E. #4 -
Kentucky |
0.1078% |
0.1022% |
0.2207% |
0.3286% |
|
Chris L. #1 -
Gonzaga |
0.1251% |
0.1953% |
0.1741% |
0.1991% |
|
Chris E. -
Arizona |
Initial |
0.1953% |
0.2365% |
0.2467% |
|
Brent E. #5 -
Kansas |
0.0336% |
0.1337% |
0.1927% |
0.2959% |
|
Irene H. #1 -
Gonzaga |
0.0997% |
0.1221% |
0.2319% |
0.1877% |
|
Andrew D. #1 -
Gonzaga |
0.0366% |
0.0956% |
0.2207% |
0.2736% |
|
Eric V. - Arizona |
0.0732% |
0.0488% |
0.3052% |
0.1953% |
|
Chrissy S - USC |
Initial |
0.1300% |
0.2667% |
0.2116% |
|
Jared B. - Gonzaga |
0.0923% |
0.1219% |
0.1655% |
0.1874% |
|
JoJo D. - Kansas |
0.0305% |
0.0870% |
0.1724% |
0.2733% |
|
Gigi I - Gonzaga |
0.0338% |
0.1161% |
0.1227% |
0.2284% |
|
Hutch H. #3 -
Gonzaga |
0.0112% |
0.0763% |
0.2207% |
0.1827% |
|
Pete J. #5 -
Kansas |
0.0122% |
0.1119% |
0.1943% |
0.1645% |
|
Brent E. #3 -
Gonzaga |
0.0122% |
0.1516% |
0.1404% |
0.1729% |
|
Howie G. #1 -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
0.1180% |
0.1287% |
0.2167% |
|
Brent S. #2 -
Arizona |
0.0295% |
0.1187% |
0.1025% |
0.1653% |
|
Chris L. #2 -
Arizona |
0.0102% |
0.0763% |
0.1567% |
0.1668% |
|
Tisa S. - Gonzaga |
0.0854% |
0.0793% |
0.0885% |
0.1389% |
|
William G. #1 -
Gonzaga |
0.0244% |
0.0854% |
0.1017% |
0.1718% |
|
Michael S. #1
(Cluck Norris) - Gonzaga |
0.0264% |
0.0987% |
0.0956% |
0.1205% |
|
Tomas L. - Baylor |
Initial |
0.0183% |
0.1078% |
0.1988% |
|
Dylan B. #1 -
Gonzaga |
0.0183% |
0.0580% |
0.0732% |
0.1450% |
|
Shawn M. - Baylor |
0.0061% |
0.0671% |
0.0437% |
0.1729% |
|
TommyJoe V. #3 -
Kansas |
Initial |
0.1251% |
0.0702% |
0.0865% |
|
Adam O. #4 (CAAT
IV) - Kansas |
Initial |
0.0488% |
0.1129% |
0.1088% |
|
Mason A. -
Arizona |
0.0549% |
0.0666% |
0.0707% |
0.0738% |
|
Scott He. #2 -
Gonzaga |
0.0214% |
0.0397% |
0.0599% |
0.1407% |
|
Jim D. #3 -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
0.0610% |
0.0916% |
0.0961% |
|
Dan Du. #3 -
Gonzaga |
0.0183% |
0.0671% |
0.0671% |
0.0854% |
|
Klei R. - Arizona |
Initial |
0.0610% |
0.0671% |
0.0977% |
|
Brett G. #1 -
Tennessee |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0305% |
0.1851% |
|
Reid D. - Duke |
Initial |
0.0244% |
0.0549% |
0.1343% |
|
Daisy N. #6 -
Arizona |
Initial |
0.0529% |
0.0559% |
0.1040% |
|
Ken Pom - Gonzaga |
Initial |
0.0244% |
0.0793% |
0.0895% |
|
Josiah T. #3 -
Arizona |
0.0244% |
0.0514% |
0.0509% |
0.0521% |
|
Max A. #1 -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
0.0610% |
0.0264% |
0.0826% |
|
Itene H. #2 -
Gonzaga |
0.0153% |
0.0366% |
0.0407% |
0.0519% |
|
Brett G. #4 -
Kentucky |
0.0097% |
0.0326% |
0.0351% |
0.0374% |
|
Elizabeth N. #1 -
Kentucky |
0.0244% |
0.0244% |
0.0081% |
0.0514% |
|
Jaxon S. -
Gonzaga |
0.0183% |
0.0244% |
0.0305% |
0.0326% |
|
Rich F. - Gonzaga |
0.0183% |
0.0122% |
0.0290% |
0.0397% |
|
Kansas C. -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0366% |
0.0600% |
|
Dylan B. #2 -
Tennessee |
0.0214% |
0.0031% |
0.0186% |
0.0394% |
|
Luis B. #2 -
Arizona |
0.0031% |
0.0153% |
0.0254% |
0.0326% |
|
Paul K. - Arizona |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0346% |
0.0404% |
|
Noah N. - Arizona |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0244% |
0.0407% |
|
Chris T. -
Arizona |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0244% |
0.0397% |
|
Chris L. #3 -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
0.0051% |
0.0174% |
0.0409% |
|
Daisy N. #4 -
Kansas |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0153% |
0.0458% |
|
Cicely K. -
Auburn |
Initial |
0.0153% |
0.0209% |
0.0234% |
|
Kealoah G. -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
0.0076% |
0.0269% |
0.0208% |
|
Josiah T. #1 -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0153% |
0.0387% |
|
Jay H. #2 -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0366% |
0.0163% |
|
Connor W. - Arizona |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0122% |
0.0397% |
|
Scott K. #2 -
Kentucky |
Initial |
0.0092% |
0.0153% |
0.0254% |
|
Dustin D. #1 -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0488% |
|
Nick V. -
Kentucky |
Initial |
0.0092% |
0.0173% |
0.0132% |
|
Adam O. #1 (CAAT
I) - Arizona |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0142% |
0.0214% |
|
Howard S. #1 -
Auburn |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0153% |
0.0153% |
|
Scott He. #1 -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0305% |
|
Brad R. - Gonzaga |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0046% |
0.0244% |
|
Chris L. #4 -
Arizona |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0061% |
0.0168% |
|
Derek H. -
Tennessee |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0193% |
|
Eric G. #2 -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0183% |
|
Brandon H. -
Kentucky |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0122% |
Initial |
|
Nathan R. -
Gonzaga |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0092% |
|
Jim D. #1 -
Kentucky |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0015% |
0.0066% |
|
Pete J. #2 -
Kentucky |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0061% |
|
Michelle L. #1 -
Arizona |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0051% |
|
Kiah H. #2 -
Kentucky |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0031% |
|
Dan McK. #2 -
Kentucky |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0015% |
That’s the list. If
you are still alive this far, congratulations!!
Thursday and Friday of this week traditional are bloodbaths. As they should be, since we need to get 160
live entries down to 4 in just 15 games.
I’ll be back in a little bit to tell you who you need to
root for and how hard in the Sweet 16.
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