Preview of Games 1-4

 Good morning everyone.  Yesterday was a pretty interesting day, as a #2 seed , 2 #5 seeds, a #6 and 2 #8 seeds all were upset.  Looking at that, it almost doesn’t seem too bad, since the only one of those that was supposed to win more than one game was Kentucky.  That means the Chalk for Charity bracket really isn’t doing too bad.  Where it gets bad is if you look at the specific 2 & 5 seeds that lost.  Kentucky, Iowa (and to a lesser extent UConn) were all picked by a lot of people to over perform their seeding.  I think Iowa and Kentucky were easily the #2 and #5 seeds the most people had going furthest.  Ouch.

But, it’s another day today.  I douby many people are actually eliminated yet, although some people will have to have a lot go right for them today to get back in contention.  We’ll start with the first 4 games of the day:

Vegas Line: Ohio State PK

Picks for Ohio State: 97

Picks for Loyola-Chicago: 115

If you just looked at the last 5 seasons, I think it would be reasonable to assume that Loyola-Chicago was the powerhouse school here.  They went to the Final 4 a few years ago, and I’m pretty sure Ohio State has flamed out of the tournament in sometimes spectacular fashion ever since Greg Oden left.  I think Loyola-Chicago benefits from having a pretty old team.  A lot of the guy there have played in a lot of games over their careers, so shouldn’t get too rattled.  That, and they have Sister Jean, who everyone loves and I’m sure will be shown no less than a dozen times during the game.  This should be a good one to start with.

Vegas Line: Auburn -14.5

Picks for Auburn: 204

Picks for Jacksonville State: 8

For a good chunk of the season, I had Auburn as the #1 team in the country.  At the end of the season, I had them around #10, so they may have already peaked.  I still remember that really good team, so I’m inclined to think they can win this one, but who knows….  Jacksonville State is a very interesting story.  They are from the Atlantic Sun conference, but didn’t win their conference tournament.  A school named Bellarmine won it, but because the NCAA has this ridiculous rule that you can’t play in the NCAA Tournament until you’ve been a Division I team for at least 5 years, they didn’t qualify.  So, the conference selected the regular season champ to go, even though they lost in the conference semi-finals to Bellarmine.  There’s a lot wrong with this that I won’t get into, like why conference tournaments are an awful way to select who gets an automatic bid and why, if you know a team can’t qualify, you let them play a conference tournament at all.  But, Jacksonville State is here, and they are a decent team, so good luck to them.

Vegas Line: Texas Tech -15

Picks for Texas Tech: 204

Picks for Montana State: 8

This is a mirror of the pick distribution for the previous game.  People really not feeling the love for the Big Sky Champion here.  I think a good number of people like Texas Tech to make it to the Final 4, so if they go down, it won’t be as big as Kentucky losing, but it will still be big.  I can still remember when Texas Tech almost won the Championship a few years ago, so they seem to overperform in these tournaments.

Vegas Line: Purdue -16.5

Picks for Purdue: 205

Picks for Yale: 7

Conventional wisdom would tell you that the biggest winner of any team that didn’t play yesterday was Purdue.  They are the #3 seed in the East, and Kentucky was the best team standing in the way between them and an Elite 8 berth.  I mean, Kentucky, Yale and whoever they might play in the next round.  Still, if you are Purdue, you should be feeling pretty good about your position.  Not as good as St. Peter’s, but good.  That being said, Purdue, if I remember correctly, has never been to a Final 4.  They also looked like the #1 team in the country at some point this season and finished in the 12-15 range.  I’m not sure I would be feeling too cocky if I were Purdue right now.  Just focus on winning the first game first.