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We are finally headed into the home stretch of this year's
March Madness pool. Conventional wisdom
says that it's probably a good strategy to take 2 #1 seeds in the final 4, one
mid-top seeded team (a 2 or a 3), and one dark horse. This year largely went close to that
form. The trick if you are picking so
many #1 seeds to make the Final 4 in 3 of the regions, it's tough to turn
around and take a dark horse in that 4th region. Since that was the case this year, only 3
brackets managed to nail all 4 final 4 teams (Todd K. #3, Chad L. #2 and Alyssa
B.). Amazingly, Chad L. #2 can't win the
pool because he is in 2nd place in overall points, but has the exact same
Championship game as Todd K. #3, who is the only person who has more
points. That kind of sucks.
Unlike yesterday, there weren't too many people that got
both games correct on the day. Only 11 people had Michigan State and Duke both winning
today. Of those 11, 5 of them were
already eliminated from all contention, so today was only for bragging
right. That especially sucks for Jim W.,
who was our leader yesterday in the person with the most points, but eliminated
from all contention. He went 2/2 today
to move into 5th place overall in points, but can't possibly finish in the top
4. Sorry again, Jim.
On the flip side, if you went 0/2 today, you are done. of the 97 brackets that did this, none are
alive for any spots.
In other interesting news, there's no chance that there will
be a tie for 1st or 2nd, and there's only one scenario where there can be a tie
for 3rd and 4th. That's good. I don't like ties.
In other interesting news, there are 2 people who are still
alive where I haven't received payment.
One is Szecho L., but he bought me a beer on Friday and told me his
payment is in the mail, so I'll probably get it tomorrow or early next
week. The other person is Brandon
H. I'm starting to hope he wins, so I
can just pocket the money for myself. There's
no chance on God's green Earth that I am going to pay someone that was trying
to stiff me on entree fees if he manages to get 4th place.
Seriously, if you haven't paid your entry fee, you will not
be invited to ever play in one of my pools again. That's pretty much BS.
So, here's the eliminations that happened today:
With Louisville's loss:
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April K. (3rd, 4th)
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Bhav R. #1 (4th)
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Brent S. #1 (3rd)
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Brent S. #2 (4th)
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Brent S. #3 (2nd)
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Carl B. (2nd, 3rd)
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Chad L. #2 (4th)
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Chris La. #3 (3rd, 4th)
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Daisy N. #2 (2nd)
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Daisy N. #4 (2nd)
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Daryl J. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
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Irene H. #2 (4th)
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Jay K. (3rd, 4th)
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Joe R. (2nd, 4th)
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Jonathan M. #1 (1st, 3rd)
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Kirt R. #1 (3rd)
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Larry G. #2 (2nd)
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Michelle L. #2 (1st)
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Mike S. #1 (4th)
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Rich F. #2 (2nd)
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Ryan W. (3rd)
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Steve K. #2 (4th)
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Szecho L. (1st)
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Todd K. #2 (3rd)
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3rdTodd K. #3 (4th)
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Veronica A. (4th)
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With Gonzaga's Loss:
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Brent E. #1 (2nd)
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Brent S. #3 (3rd, 4th)
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Chris Lu. #2 (1st)
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Christy K. #1 (1st, 2nd, 4th)
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Daisy N. #2 (3rd, 4th)
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Dan S. (1st)
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Irene H. #2 (2nd, 3rd)
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Joe R. (3rd)
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Jonathan M. #1 (2nd)
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Kirt R. #1 (4th)
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Larry G. #2 (3rd, 4th)
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Marissa W. #1 (4th)
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Scottt #1 (1st, 4th)
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Steve D. (1st, 2nd, 4th)
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Steve K. #2 (1st, 2nd)
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Todd K. #4 (3rd)
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Tomas L. #1 (4th)
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So, virtually every one of the possible combinations of the
last 3 games were picked by someone, so most of the probabilities were
12.5%. There were a few deviations from
that. I mentioned a tie earlier for 3rd
and 4th. That makes the probabilities
12.5 / 2 = 6.75% for that one scenario.
Also, there are 2 people that can win if the team they picked wins it
all regardless what happens on the other side of the bracket. Those 2 are Daisy N. #4 (Duke) and Mark N. #2
(Wisconsin). All other places are
specific to one specific scenario. Also, Brent S. #1 is Duke-specific for 2nd
place (same as Daisy N. #4 for 1st).
Here are the probabilities for 1st place:
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1. Mark N. #2 (25%)
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1. Daisy N. #4 (25%)
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3. Todd K. #2 (12.5%)
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3. Brent E. #1 (12.5%)
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3. Alyssa B. (12.5%)
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3. Todd K. #3 (12.5%)
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...and 2nd place:
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1. Brent S. #1 (25%)
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2. Todd K. #2 (12.5%)
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2. Todd K. #3 (12.5%)
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2. Jay K. (12.5%)
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2. Chad L. #2 (12.5%)
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2. Marissa W. #1 (12.5%)
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2. Dan S. (12.5%)
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...and 3rd place:
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1. Marissa W. #1 (12.5%)
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1. Chad L. #2 (12.5%)
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1. Bobby H. (12.5%)
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1. Veronica A. (12.5%)
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1. Brent E. #1 (12.5%)
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1. Rich F. #2 (12.5%)
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1. Brent S. #2 (12.5%)
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8. Mark N. #2 (6.25%)
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8. Szecho L. (6.25%)
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....and 4th place:
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1. Todd K. #4 (12.5%)
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1. Dennis R. #1 (12.5%)
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1. Todd K. #2 (12.5%)
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1. Brandon H. (12.5%)
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1. Alyssa B. (12.5%)
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1. Joe K. #2 (12.5%)
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1. Kye G. #1 (12.5%)
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8. Mark N. #2 (6.25%)
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8. Szecho L. (6.25%)
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I guess that's it for now.
Games don't start up again until next Saturday. Enjoy the time off. I am going to get some normalcy back in my
life. IT has disappeared down a black
hole the last 2.5 weeks.....
Good Luck!!!!!!
