Sweet 16 preview

The Sweet 16 is almost over.  Up until now, I've been providing stat based on points earned and net points.  I'm still keep track of that stuff, but from here on out, my focus will be based on probabilities of winning.  I figure this out by running some data through Excel.  I look at all 2^15 ways the tournament can play out from the final 16 teams.  Assuming each of them is equally likely, I can calculate the odds of winning for every bracket entered in the pool.  I can also tell when someone is mathematically  eliminated from contention for any of the 4 places.  Many times, the data point to some strange things happening.  For example, if you are the only person to pick, say, UCLA, to win the whole thing, you probably are going to have pretty good odds to win.  This is because if UCLA wins the whole thing, you probably win regardless of anything else that happens because you'd be the only person to pick them to win.

On the flip side, you may be really high in the points standings, but eliminated from 1st because someone else is slightly ahead of you right now, and you don't have enough differences between your brackets to pass them in the standings. 

Before the various games, I post who will be eliminated in the various single game eliminations.  A lot of the time, a combination of losses can knock someone out, so I'll post who lost at various times throughout the tournament.  I'll also post updated odds of winning.  It will be fun, so good luck to everyone, and try not to get eliminated!!!!