1st place and eliminations edition

Well, I've got bad news and more bad news for people.  I've run some preliminary numbers and I have average rank finish and probabilities for 1st place.  There are some interesting numbers in here.

First, let's get all the really bad stuff out of the way.  There are 67 brackets that, no matter how hard they try, can do no better than 5th place, and are thus out of all contention for any of the payouts.  Better luck next year to all of these brackets.  I won't mention them too much after this:

Alex Q.

Andrew D. #1

Andrew D. #2

Ben J. #1

Ben J. #4

Brad E.

Bret K. #2

Bret K. #3

Brett W.

Brian G. #2

Chad L. #1

Chris L. #1

Christy K. #2

Daisy N. #3

Damian M. #3

Dan D. #2

Dave M.

Dennis R. #2

Dylan B.

Eric V. #2

Gary W.

Gigi Q.

Howard S. #1

Howard S. #2

Hutch H. #1

Hutch H. #3

Irene H. #1

James R.

Jason G.

Jax Q.

Jay H. #1

Jay H. #2

Joe K. #1

John B.

John E.

Jonathan M. #2

Kansas C.

Ken P.

Larry G. #4

Luis B. #1

Luis B. #2

Marc R.

Mark N. #1

Mason A. #2

Matt N.

Michelle L. #1

Michelle L. #4

Peter J. #1

Peter J. #2

Peter J. #3

Peter J. #4

Peter J. #5

Sally R.

Scott H. #1

Scott H. #2

Scott K. #1

Seth D.

Shane B.

Taima B #2

Taima B. #1

Tim N.

Tomas L. #2

Virginia L. #1

Virginia L. #2

William G. #1

William G. #2

William G. #4

There is a small subset of brackets that are just hanging on to a chance at 4th place, but that's the best they can do:

Ben J. #3

Ben S. #1

Brent E. #2

Damien R. #2

Harrell R. #2

Jim D. #1

Peter J. #6

Same goes for the brackets that can only get 3rd or 4th:

Ben S. #2

Bhav R. #1

Brad R.

Chun W. #4

Hutch H. #2

Irene H. #3

James G. #1

John M. #2

Justin L.

Kye G. #1

Larry G. #3

Scottt #2

William G. #3

...and finally the brackets that can't get 1st place, but are otherwise alive for 2nd, 3rd or 4th place:

Amber W.

Bobby H.

Brent E. #4

Brent S. #1

Brent S. #2

Brent S. #3

Chris La. #3

Chun W. #1

Damian M. #1

Damian M. #2

Damien R. #1

Jay H. #3

Jessica B.

Joseph H.

Kirt R. #2

Klei R. #1

Larry G. #1

Luis B. #3

Marissa W. #2

Mike G.

Paul W.

Rich F. #1

Scott K. #2

Steve H. #1

Veronica A.

That leaves a grand total of 94 brackets that are still alive for first place.  Remember that my math assumes that a Kentucky/Duke championship game is just as likely as a UCLA/Xavier championship game, so take these initial probabilities with a grain of salt.  Some of the higher ones are heavily dependent on one team making it really, really far.

So, here's the initial probabilities for getting 1st place:

1. Jonathan M. #1 (7.7418%)

2. Steve K. #1 (7.4905%)

3. Michelle L. #2 (6.9529%)

4. Chad L. #3 (6.2586%)

5. Marissa W. #1 (4.4494%)

6. Todd K. #2 (3.8828%)

7. Todd K. #1 (3.5766%)

8. Brent E. #3 (3.3045%)

9. Missy W. #2 (3.247%)

10. Jonathan O. (2.775%)

11. Mark N. #2 (2.6227%)

12. Mason A. #1 (2.511%)

13. Carl B. (2.3508%)

14. Bret K. #1 (2.3089%)

15. Julie S. (2.2125%)

16. Marissa W. #3 (2.0212%)

17. Daisy N. #2 (1.9577%)

18. Szecho L. (1.9332%)

19. Chun W. #2 (1.9317%)

20. Ron B. (1.6738%)

21. John M. #3 (1.5253%)

22. Daisy N. #5 (1.3748%)

23. Dan S. (1.3595%)

24. Irene H. #2 (1.183%)

25. Michelle R. #1 (1.1632%)

26. Todd K. #4 (1.1627%)

27. Chris Lu. #2 (1.1016%)

28. Steve K. #2 (1.0986%)

29. Chris La. #4 (1.066%)

30. Daryl J. (1.0238%)

31. Jim K. (0.949%)

32. Larry G. #2 (0.8926%)

33. Jack Q. #2 (0.8845%)

34. Ben J. #2 (0.8117%)

35. Brent E. #1 (0.7812%)

36. Mike S. #1 (0.7476%)

37. Daisy N. #4 (0.7385%)

38. Ally H. (0.6535%)

39. Steve D. (0.6423%)

40. Alyssa B. (0.6195%)

41. Dennis R. #1 (0.5643%)

42. John M. #1 (0.4791%)

43. Joe K. #3 (0.4638%)

44. Jay K. (0.4272%)

45. Dustin B. (0.4257%)

46. Harrell R. #1 (0.4241%)

47. Jim W. (0.4206%)

48. Missy W. #1 (0.4185%)

49. Kolton D. (0.415%)

50. Scottt #1 (0.4089%)

51. April K. (0.3662%)

52. Todd K. #3 (0.3631%)

53. Angie B. (0.3234%)

54. Eric V. #1 (0.3148%)

55. Steve H. #2 (0.2629%)

56. Jack Q. #4 (0.2563%)

57. Brian G. #1 (0.2212%)

58. Jonathan M. #3 (0.2136%)

59. Chad L. #2 (0.2029%)

60. Christy K. #1 (0.1632%)

61. Jenny E. (0.1586%)

62. Joe K. #2 (0.1464%)

62. Tomas L. #1 (0.1464%)

64. Mike S. #2 (0.1307%)

65. Becky H. (0.1281%)

66. Jeff W. (0.1129%)

67. Rich F. #2 (0.1042%)

68. Brandon H. (0.0961%)

69. Chris Lu. #1 (0.091%)

70. Sue L. (0.0732%)

71. Michelle R. #2 (0.061%)

72. Ryan W. (0.0579%)

73. James G. #3 (0.0549%)

73. Ray R. (0.0549%)

75. Chris La. #2 (0.0503%)

76. Jim D. #2 (0.0442%)

77. Eric V. #3 (0.0417%)

78. Kye G. #2 (0.0366%)

79. Adam E. (0.035%)

80. Chun W. #3 (0.0335%)

81. Daisy N. #1 (0.0328%)

82. Mike W. (0.0305%)

83. James G. #2 (0.0233%)

84. Jack Q. #1 (0.0228%)

85. Dan D. #1 (0.0183%)

85. Kirt R. #1 (0.0183%)

85. Michelle L. #3 (0.0183%)

88. Bhav R. #2 (0.0122%)

88. Mindi W. (0.0122%)

90. Roth W. (0.0106%)

91. Joe R. (0.0101%)

92. Kai Q. (0.0076%)

93. Jack Q. #3 (0.003%)

94. Brandon B. (0.0015%)

All in all, I'd say that there's no runaway favorite.  I was a little surprised at a few of them.  Jonathan M. #1 has been crushing it in this tournament.  He has Kentucky winning and all 4 Final 4 teams alive, so it's no surprise to see him there.

I had to look up Steve K. #1.  He has Oklahoma winning it all.  If that happens, Steve K. #1 is almost certain to win.  The same goes for Michelle L. #2 and Louisville.  A lot of the others are highly correlated with net points.

The strangest one that I saw was my old friend Jonathan O. sitting in 10th place.  He has Utah winning, but he would not only need Utah to win, but to not have Utah beat either Arizona or Kentucky in the finals.  It's a huge long shot, but still mathematically alive, despite him being the current odds on favorite to finish last.  That's interesting to me....

I'm going to give it a rest for tonight.  I have some other programs I can run and I have some more things to calculate (like probabilities for 2nd, 3rd & 4th), but I'll save those for tomorrow.

I hope everyone enjoyed the first 4 days of the tournament.  I'd have enjoyed it a lot more if I was still alive for 1st, but I can still pull for a 2nd place finish, so there's that.

For those that are curious about the traditional scoring, here's the points after the first 2 rounds:

1. Jonathan M. #1: 51 (-13)

2. Marissa W. #1: 51 (-29)

3. Bret K. #1: 50 (-26)

4. Todd K. #2: 49 (-15)

5. Ron B.: 49 (-27)

6. Steve H. #1: 49 (-83)

7. Chad L. #3: 48 (-20)

8. Chun W. #3: 48 (-32)

8. Missy W. #1: 48 (-32)

10. Larry G. #1: 48 (-48)

11. Brent E. #4: 48 (-50)

12. Kolton D.: 48 (-84)

13. Todd K. #1: 47 (-17)

14. Jim K.: 47 (-21)

15. John M. #1: 47 (-25)

16. Alyssa B.: 47 (-33)

17. James G. #3: 47 (-37)

18. Mason A. #1: 47 (-45)

19. Brandon B.: 47 (-49)

20. Amber W.: 47 (-57)

21. Bret K. #2: 47 (-73)

22. Kai Q.: 47 (-81)

23. Mark N. #2: 46 (-18)

24. Szecho L.: 46 (-22)

24. Todd K. #3: 46 (-22)

26. Daisy N. #2: 46 (-34)

26. Jim D. #2: 46 (-34)

26. Larry G. #2: 46 (-34)

29. Daisy N. #1: 46 (-38)

29. Rich F. #1: 46 (-38)

31. Harrell R. #1: 46 (-50)

31. Ken P.: 46 (-50)

33. Rich F. #2: 46 (-54)

34. Bhav R. #2: 46 (-58)

35. Damian M. #2: 46 (-82)

36. Chad L. #2: 45 (-23)

36. Jim W.: 45 (-23)

38. Dan S.: 45 (-27)

39. Daisy N. #4: 45 (-35)

39. Kirt R. #1: 45 (-35)

41. Kye G. #1: 45 (-39)

42. Mindi W.: 45 (-59)

43. Chun W. #2: 45 (-63)

44. Jessica B.: 45 (-67)

45. Brent E. #2: 45 (-83)

46. Eric V. #1: 44 (-24)

46. Scottt #1: 44 (-24)

46. Steve H. #2: 44 (-24)

49. Steve D.: 44 (-26)

50. April K.: 44 (-32)

50. Chris La. #2: 44 (-32)

52. Brent S. #2: 44 (-36)

52. Christy K. #1: 44 (-36)

52. James G. #2: 44 (-36)

52. Jay K.: 44 (-36)

56. Ben S. #1: 44 (-40)

56. Gigi Q.: 44 (-40)

56. Larry G. #4: 44 (-40)

59. Matt N.: 44 (-48)

60. Chris La. #3: 44 (-56)

60. Chun W. #1: 44 (-56)

60. Paul W.: 44 (-56)

60. Jonathan M. #2: 44 (-56)

64. Hutch H. #2: 44 (-60)

64. Peter J. #6: 44 (-60)

66. Peter J. #2: 44 (-64)

67. Dan D. #2: 44 (-68)

68. Larry G. #3: 44 (-84)

69. Carl B.: 43 (-25)

70. Irene H. #2: 43 (-29)

70. Michelle L. #2: 43 (-29)

70. Mike W.: 43 (-29)

70. Steve K. #1: 43 (-29)

70. Todd K. #4: 43 (-29)

75. Chun W. #4: 43 (-33)

75. Dan D. #1: 43 (-33)

75. Dustin B.: 43 (-33)

78. Brandon H.: 43 (-37)

79. Tomas L. #1: 43 (-49)

80. Eric V. #3: 43 (-53)

80. Jay H. #3: 43 (-53)

82. Andrew D. #2: 43 (-57)

82. Jim D. #1: 43 (-57)

82. Scott H. #1: 43 (-57)

85. Jonathan M. #3: 43 (-61)

85. Klei R. #1: 43 (-61)

85. John M. #2: 43 (-61)

88. Bret K. #3: 43 (-65)

88. John E.: 43 (-65)

90. Ben J. #1: 43 (-69)

91. Kirt R. #2: 43 (-85)

92. Brad E.: 43 (-89)

93. Dylan B.: 43 (-109)

94. Brent E. #1: 42 (-26)

94. Daryl J.: 42 (-26)

96. Steve K. #2: 42 (-30)

97. Dennis R. #1: 42 (-34)

97. Joe R.: 42 (-34)

99. James G. #1: 42 (-38)

99. Brent S. #3: 42 (-38)

99. Jack Q. #3: 42 (-38)

99. Scottt #2: 42 (-38)

103. Harrell R. #2: 42 (-42)

103. Brent E. #3: 42 (-42)

103. Kye G. #2: 42 (-42)

106. Brian G. #1: 42 (-52)

107. Bhav R. #1: 42 (-54)

108. Damian M. #3: 42 (-58)

109. Mike G.: 42 (-62)

110. Julie S.: 42 (-66)

110. Shane B.: 42 (-66)

112. Gary W.: 42 (-70)

112. Hutch H. #1: 42 (-70)

114. Chris Lu. #1: 41 (-31)

115. Ben J. #2: 41 (-35)

116. Damien R. #2: 41 (-39)

117. Brett W.: 41 (-43)

117. Angie B.: 41 (-43)

117. Michelle L. #3: 41 (-43)

117. Mark N. #1: 41 (-43)

121. Chris La. #4: 41 (-47)

122. Virginia L. #1: 41 (-51)

123. Mike S. #2: 41 (-55)

124. Joseph H.: 41 (-59)

124. Scott H. #2: 41 (-59)

126. Chad L. #1: 41 (-63)

127. Howard S. #2: 41 (-91)

128. Marissa W. #2: 41 (-99)

129. Marissa W. #3: 41 (-103)

130. Hutch H. #3: 41 (-131)

131. Mike S. #1: 40 (-28)

132. Ally H.: 40 (-32)

132. Chris Lu. #2: 40 (-32)

132. Jenny E.: 40 (-32)

132. Ryan W.: 40 (-32)

136. Becky H.: 40 (-36)

137. Brent S. #1: 40 (-40)

137. Daisy N. #5: 40 (-40)

137. Missy W. #2: 40 (-40)

140. Dennis R. #2: 40 (-44)

140. Bobby H.: 40 (-44)

140. Veronica A.: 40 (-44)

143. Ben S. #2: 40 (-56)

143. Jack Q. #4: 40 (-56)

145. Damian M. #1: 40 (-60)

146. Kansas C.: 40 (-96)

147. Sue L.: 40 (-102)

148. William G. #1: 40 (-124)

149. Daisy N. #3: 40 (-128)

150. Dave M.: 39 (-41)

151. Brad R.: 39 (-45)

152. Luis B. #1: 39 (-57)

153. Peter J. #3: 39 (-61)

154. Jason G.: 39 (-69)

155. Irene H. #1: 39 (-73)

156. Tomas L. #2: 39 (-81)

157. Scott K. #2: 39 (-85)

158. Alex Q.: 39 (-93)

159. Virginia L. #2: 39 (-97)

160. Irene H. #3: 39 (-101)

160. Jack Q. #2: 39 (-101)

160. William G. #4: 39 (-101)

163. Michelle R. #2: 39 (-113)

164. Adam E.: 38 (-32)

165. Joe K. #2: 38 (-34)

165. Ray R.: 38 (-34)

167. Roth W.: 38 (-38)

168. Michelle R. #1: 38 (-42)

169. Eric V. #2: 38 (-46)

169. Peter J. #4: 38 (-46)

171. Jax Q.: 38 (-58)

172. Chris L. #1: 38 (-62)

173. Ben J. #4: 38 (-74)

174. John M. #3: 38 (-90)

175. Jay H. #1: 38 (-102)

176. Joe K. #3: 37 (-39)

177. Damien R. #1: 37 (-43)

178. Seth D.: 37 (-47)

179. Michelle L. #1: 37 (-71)

179. William G. #2: 37 (-71)

181. Peter J. #1: 37 (-79)

182. Howard S. #1: 37 (-103)

182. James R.: 37 (-103)

184. Justin L.: 36 (-40)

185. Taima B #2: 36 (-44)

186. Ben J. #3: 36 (-52)

186. Jeff W.: 36 (-52)

188. Andrew D. #1: 36 (-64)

188. John B.: 36 (-64)

190. Taima B. #1: 36 (-72)

191. Jack Q. #1: 36 (-108)

192. Michelle L. #4: 35 (-65)

192. Peter J. #5: 35 (-65)

194. Joe K. #1: 35 (-69)

195. Marc R.: 35 (-109)

196. Luis B. #2: 34 (-46)

196. Luis B. #3: 34 (-46)

198. William G. #3: 34 (-58)

199. Jay H. #2: 34 (-78)

200. Scott K. #1: 33 (-79)

201. Mason A. #2: 32 (-56)

202. Brian G. #2: 32 (-120)

203. Christy K. #2: 31 (-113)

204. Tim N.: 29 (-81)

205. Sally R.: 24 (-104)

206. Jonathan O.: 24 (-106)

The highest ranked player that can't get first is Steve H. #1.  That should come as no surprise as he has Villanova winning it all, and is currently in 162nd in net points.  Speaking of net points:

1. Jonathan M. #1 (38)

2. Todd K. #2 (34)

3. Todd K. #1 (30)

4. Chad L. #3 (28)

4. Mark N. #2 (28)

6. Jim K. (26)

7. Bret K. #1 (24)

7. Szecho L. (24)

7. Todd K. #3 (24)

10. Marissa W. #1 (22)

10. Ron B. (22)

10. John M. #1 (22)

10. Chad L. #2 (22)

10. Jim W. (22)

15. Eric V. #1 (20)

15. Scottt #1 (20)

15. Steve H. #2 (20)

18. Dan S. (18)

18. Steve D. (18)

18. Carl B. (18)

21. Chun W. #3 (16)

21. Missy W. #1 (16)

21. Brent E. #1 (16)

21. Daryl J. (16)

25. Alyssa B. (14)

25. Irene H. #2 (14)

25. Michelle L. #2 (14)

25. Mike W. (14)

25. Steve K. #1 (14)

25. Todd K. #4 (14)

31. Daisy N. #2 (12)

31. Jim D. #2 (12)

31. Larry G. #2 (12)

31. April K. (12)

31. Chris La. #2 (12)

31. Steve K. #2 (12)

31. Mike S. #1 (12)

38. James G. #3 (10)

38. Daisy N. #4 (10)

38. Kirt R. #1 (10)

38. Chun W. #4 (10)

38. Dan D. #1 (10)

38. Dustin B. (10)

38. Chris Lu. #1 (10)

45. Daisy N. #1 (8)

45. Rich F. #1 (8)

45. Brent S. #2 (8)

45. Christy K. #1 (8)

45. James G. #2 (8)

45. Jay K. (8)

45. Dennis R. #1 (8)

45. Joe R. (8)

45. Ally H. (8)

45. Chris Lu. #2 (8)

45. Jenny E. (8)

45. Ryan W. (8)

57. Kye G. #1 (6)

57. Brandon H. (6)

57. Ben J. #2 (6)

57. Adam E. (6)

61. Ben S. #1 (4)

61. Gigi Q. (4)

61. Larry G. #4 (4)

61. James G. #1 (4)

61. Brent S. #3 (4)

61. Jack Q. #3 (4)

61. Scottt #2 (4)

61. Becky H. (4)

61. Joe K. #2 (4)

61. Ray R. (4)

71. Mason A. #1 (2)

71. Damien R. #2 (2)

73. Larry G. #1 (0)

73. Harrell R. #2 (0)

73. Brent E. #3 (0)

73. Kye G. #2 (0)

73. Brent S. #1 (0)

73. Daisy N. #5 (0)

73. Missy W. #2 (0)

73. Roth W. (0)

81. Brent E. #4 (-2)

81. Brandon B. (-2)

81. Brett W. (-2)

81. Angie B. (-2)

81. Michelle L. #3 (-2)

81. Mark N. #1 (-2)

81. Dave M. (-2)

81. Joe K. #3 (-2)

89. Harrell R. #1 (-4)

89. Ken P. (-4)

89. Matt N. (-4)

89. Dennis R. #2 (-4)

89. Bobby H. (-4)

89. Veronica A. (-4)

89. Michelle R. #1 (-4)

89. Justin L. (-4)

97. Tomas L. #1 (-6)

97. Chris La. #4 (-6)

97. Brad R. (-6)

97. Damien R. #1 (-6)

101. Rich F. #2 (-8)

101. Eric V. #2 (-8)

101. Peter J. #4 (-8)

101. Taima B #2 (-8)

105. Amber W. (-10)

105. Eric V. #3 (-10)

105. Jay H. #3 (-10)

105. Brian G. #1 (-10)

105. Virginia L. #1 (-10)

105. Seth D. (-10)

111. Bhav R. #2 (-12)

111. Chris La. #3 (-12)

111. Chun W. #1 (-12)

111. Paul W. (-12)

111. Jonathan M. #2 (-12)

111. Bhav R. #1 (-12)

111. Luis B. #2 (-12)

111. Luis B. #3 (-12)

119. Mindi W. (-14)

119. Andrew D. #2 (-14)

119. Jim D. #1 (-14)

119. Scott H. #1 (-14)

119. Mike S. #2 (-14)

124. Hutch H. #2 (-16)

124. Peter J. #6 (-16)

124. Damian M. #3 (-16)

124. Ben S. #2 (-16)

124. Jack Q. #4 (-16)

124. Ben J. #3 (-16)

124. Jeff W. (-16)

131. Chun W. #2 (-18)

131. Jonathan M. #3 (-18)

131. Klei R. #1 (-18)

131. John M. #2 (-18)

131. Joseph H. (-18)

131. Scott H. #2 (-18)

131. Luis B. #1 (-18)

138. Peter J. #2 (-20)

138. Mike G. (-20)

138. Damian M. #1 (-20)

138. Jax Q. (-20)

142. Jessica B. (-22)

142. Bret K. #3 (-22)

142. John E. (-22)

142. Chad L. #1 (-22)

142. Peter J. #3 (-22)

147. Dan D. #2 (-24)

147. Julie S. (-24)

147. Shane B. (-24)

147. Chris L. #1 (-24)

147. William G. #3 (-24)

147. Mason A. #2 (-24)

153. Bret K. #2 (-26)

153. Ben J. #1 (-26)

155. Gary W. (-28)

155. Hutch H. #1 (-28)

155. Andrew D. #1 (-28)

155. John B. (-28)

159. Jason G. (-30)

159. Michelle L. #4 (-30)

159. Peter J. #5 (-30)

162. Steve H. #1 (-34)

162. Kai Q. (-34)

162. Irene H. #1 (-34)

162. Michelle L. #1 (-34)

162. William G. #2 (-34)

162. Joe K. #1 (-34)

168. Kolton D. (-36)

168. Damian M. #2 (-36)

168. Ben J. #4 (-36)

168. Taima B. #1 (-36)

172. Brent E. #2 (-38)

173. Larry G. #3 (-40)

174. Kirt R. #2 (-42)

174. Tomas L. #2 (-42)

174. Peter J. #1 (-42)

177. Jay H. #2 (-44)

178. Brad E. (-46)

178. Scott K. #2 (-46)

178. Scott K. #1 (-46)

181. Howard S. #2 (-50)

182. John M. #3 (-52)

182. Tim N. (-52)

184. Alex Q. (-54)

185. Kansas C. (-56)

186. Marissa W. #2 (-58)

186. Virginia L. #2 (-58)

188. Marissa W. #3 (-62)

188. Sue L. (-62)

188. Irene H. #3 (-62)

188. Jack Q. #2 (-62)

188. William G. #4 (-62)

193. Jay H. #1 (-64)

194. Dylan B. (-66)

194. Howard S. #1 (-66)

194. James R. (-66)

197. Jack Q. #1 (-72)

198. Michelle R. #2 (-74)

198. Marc R. (-74)

200. Sally R. (-80)

201. Christy K. #2 (-82)

201. Jonathan O. (-82)

203. William G. #1 (-84)

204. Daisy N. #3 (-88)

204. Brian G. #2 (-88)

206. Hutch H. #3 (-90)

The highest ranked bracket in net points that can't win is Chun W. #4 (38th).  He can't win 1st or 2nd.  Amazingly, Michelle R. #2, who had SMU over Baylor in the finals is still alive for 1st.  It's wacky how these things work out.

Good Luck!!!!!