Probabilities for 2nd place edition

Okay, I started out the night sending out the ways people could win if they still had a chance.  I built this pretty sweet program that calculated this stuff and spit out this example for Ally H:

There are 245 ways for you to win the tournament.

Kentucky wins it's next game in 100% of scenarios.

Oklahoma wins it's next game in 100% of scenarios.

Wisconsin wins it's next game in 82.04% of scenarios.

Wichita State wins it's next game in 69.8% of scenarios.

Xavier wins it's next game in 64.49% of scenarios.

Gonzaga wins it's next game in 60.41% of scenarios.

Duke wins it's next game in 52.65% of scenarios.

NC State wins it's next game in 51.43% of scenarios.

Oklahoma makes the Final 4 in 100% of scenarios.

Kentucky makes the Final 4 in 68.98% of scenarios.

Xavier makes the Final 4 in 43.27% of scenarios.

Gonzaga makes the Final 4 in 40.82% of scenarios.

Wisconsin makes the Final 4 in 38.78% of scenarios.

Wichita State makes the Final 4 in 31.02% of scenarios.

UCLA makes the Final 4 in 23.67% of scenarios.

Utah makes the Final 4 in 20.82% of scenarios.

Duke makes the Final 4 in 14.69% of scenarios.

Arizona makes the Final 4 in 11.43% of scenarios.

North Carolina makes the Final 4 in 6.53% of scenarios.

WVU can't make the Final 4

ND can't make the Final 4

NC State can't make the Final 4

Louisville can't make the Final 4

Michigan State can't make the Final 4

Oklahoma makes the Championship game 98.78% of scenarios.

Kentucky makes the Championship game 53.47% of scenarios.

Xavier makes the Championship game 22.04% of scenarios.

Wichita State makes the Championship game 21.22% of scenarios.

North Carolina makes the Championship game 3.27% of scenarios.

UCLA makes the Championship game 1.22% of scenarios.

West Virginia can't make the Championship Game

Notre Dame can't make the Championship Game

Wisconsin can't make the Championship Game

Arizona can't make the Championship Game

NC State can't make the Championship Game

Louisville can't make the Championship Game

Michigan State can't make the Championship Game

Duke can't make the Championship Game

Utah can't make the Championship Game

Gonzaga can't make the Championship Game

Kentucky wins the Championship game in 53.06% of scenarios.

Xavier wins the Championship game in 22.04% of scenarios.

Wichita State wins the Championship game in 21.22% of scenarios.

North Carolina wins the Championship game in 3.27% of scenarios.

UCLA wins the Championship game in 0.41% of scenarios.

West Virginia can't win the Championship Game

Notre Dame can't win the Championship Game

Wisconsin can't win the Championship Game

Arizona can't win the Championship Game

NC State can't win the Championship Game

Louisville can't win the Championship Game

Oklahoma can't win the Championship Game

Michigan State can't win the Championship Game

Duke can't win the Championship Game

Utah can't win the Championship Game

Gonzaga can't win the Championship Game

Unfortunately, when I put it into an e-mail, the text becomes unformatted and it looks like this:

There are 245 ways for you to win the tournament. Kentucky wins it's next game in 100% of scenarios. Oklahoma wins it's next game in 100% of scenarios. Wisconsin wins it's next game in 82.04% of scenarios. Wichita State wins it's next game in 69.8% of scenarios. Xavier wins it's next game in 64.49% of scenarios. Gonzaga wins it's next game in 60.41% of scenarios. Duke wins it's next game in 52.65% of scenarios. NC State wins it's next game in 51.43% of scenarios. Oklahoma makes the Final 4 in 100% of scenarios. Kentucky makes the Final 4 in 68.98% of scenarios. Xavier makes the Final 4 in 43.27% of scenarios. Gonzaga makes the Final 4 in 40.82% of scenarios. Wisconsin makes the Final 4 in 38.78% of scenarios. Wichita State makes the Final 4 in 31.02% of scenarios. UCLA makes the Final 4 in 23.67% of scenarios. Utah makes the Final 4 in 20.82% of scenarios. Duke makes the Final 4 in 14.69% of scenarios. Arizona makes the Final 4 in 11.43% of scenarios. North Carolina makes the Final 4 in 6.53% of scenarios. WVU can't make the Final 4 ND can't make the Final 4 NC State can't make the Final 4 Louisville can't make the Final 4 Michigan State can't make the Final 4 Oklahoma makes the Championship game 98.78% of scenarios. Kentucky makes the Championship game 53.47% of scenarios. Xavier makes the Championship game 22.04% of scenarios. Wichita State makes the Championship game 21.22% of scenarios. North Carolina makes the Championship game 3.27% of scenarios. UCLA makes the Championship game 1.22% of scenarios. West Virginia can't make the Championship Game Notre Dame can't make the Championship Game Wisconsin can't make the Championship Game Arizona can't make the Championship Game NC State can't make the Championship Game Louisville can't make the Championship Game Michigan State can't make the Championship Game Duke can't make the Championship Game Utah can't make the Championship Game Gonzaga can't make the Championship Game Kentucky wins the Championship game in 53.06% of scenarios. Xavier wins the Championship game in 22.04% of scenarios. Wichita State wins the Championship game in 21.22% of scenarios. North Carolina wins the Championship game in 3.27% of scenarios. UCLA wins the Championship game in 0.41% of scenarios. West Virginia can't win the Championship Game Notre Dame can't win the Championship Game Wisconsin can't win the Championship Game Arizona can't win the Championship Game NC State can't win the Championship Game Louisville can't win the Championship Game Oklahoma can't win the Championship Game Michigan State can't win the Championship Game Duke can't win the Championship Game Utah can't win the Championship Game Gonzaga can't win the Championship Game

The information is the same, but it reads like indecipherable gobbledygook.  I'll have to figure out a better way before I continue to send anything out.

In the mean time, here are the percent chances for 2nd place.  The trick here is that you need to finish at the top of these standings to get 2nd place.  This is not the same as finishing 2nd in the probabilities for 1st place.  That just means you didn't win 1st.

Here they are:

1. Todd K. #2 (6.0221%)

2. Marissa W. #1 (4.3131%)

3. Jonathan M. #1 (4.3128%)

4. Carl B. (4.0987%)

5. Chun W. #2 (3.8574%)

6. Chad L. #3 (3.8037%)

7. John M. #1 (3.4283%)

8. Daryl J. (2.6921%)

9. Todd K. #1 (2.6341%)

10. Julie S. (2.5772%)

11. Mark N. #2 (2.5632%)

12. Bret K. #1 (2.5388%)

13. Szecho L. (2.4775%)

14. Ally H. (2.3656%)

15. Mason A. #1 (2.3529%)

16. Daisy N. #5 (2.3361%)

17. Brent E. #3 (1.8981%)

18. Steve K. #2 (1.8081%)

19. Missy W. #2 (1.7923%)

20. Ron B. (1.7796%)

21. Daisy N. #2 (1.7684%)

22. Dan S. (1.6708%)

23. Jim W. (1.656%)

24. Irene H. #2 (1.6151%)

25. John M. #3 (1.5284%)

26. Jack Q. #2 (1.2402%)

27. Jim K. (1.2265%)

28. Chris La. #4 (1.1734%)

29. Harrell R. #1 (1.1606%)

30. Todd K. #4 (1.154%)

31. Daisy N. #4 (1.1108%)

32. Steve K. #1 (1.0805%)

33. Marissa W. #3 (1.063%)

34. April K. (0.9821%)

35. Dustin B. (0.9623%)

36. Michelle L. #2 (0.9562%)

37. Jay K. (0.9185%)

38. Steve D. (0.9132%)

39. Missy W. #1 (0.8379%)

40. Larry G. #2 (0.8143%)

41. Todd K. #3 (0.7461%)

42. Angie B. (0.7385%)

43. Jonathan O. (0.7197%)

44. Mike S. #1 (0.6996%)

45. Steve H. #2 (0.6833%)

46. Chris Lu. #2 (0.6706%)

47. Scottt #1 (0.6546%)

48. Jeff W. (0.5981%)

49. Dennis R. #1 (0.5755%)

50. Sue L. (0.5676%)

51. Alyssa B. (0.4954%)

52. Jack Q. #4 (0.4684%)

53. Eric V. #1 (0.4641%)

54. Chad L. #2 (0.4486%)

55. Brent E. #1 (0.4241%)

56. Kolton D. (0.4119%)

57. Becky H. (0.4007%)

58. Christy K. #1 (0.3781%)

59. Joe K. #2 (0.3402%)

60. Rich F. #2 (0.3372%)

61. Michelle R. #1 (0.3036%)

62. Marissa W. #2 (0.3016%)

63. Jack Q. #1 (0.2853%)

64. Chris La. #2 (0.2799%)

65. Joe K. #3 (0.2441%)

66. Brent S. #1 (0.2365%)

67. Ray R. (0.2243%)

68. Eric V. #3 (0.2189%)

69. Jonathan M. #3 (0.2105%)

70. Brian G. #1 (0.2095%)

71. Ben J. #2 (0.1973%)

72. Jenny E. (0.1892%)

73. Brandon H. (0.1739%)

74. Tomas L. #1 (0.1708%)

75. Chris Lu. #1 (0.1607%)

76. Mike W. (0.1495%)

77. Bhav R. #2 (0.1444%)

78. Mike S. #2 (0.1286%)

79. Jessica B. (0.1281%)

80. James G. #3 (0.1256%)

81. Mindi W. (0.122%)

82. Jim D. #2 (0.1098%)

83. Ryan W. (0.0991%)

84. Dan D. #1 (0.0986%)

85. Chun W. #3 (0.094%)

86. Paul W. (0.0732%)

87. Luis B. #3 (0.0722%)

88. James G. #2 (0.0717%)

89. Daisy N. #1 (0.0679%)

90. Veronica A. (0.0671%)

91. Kai Q. (0.064%)

92. Kirt R. #1 (0.0595%)

93. Kye G. #2 (0.0574%)

94. Kirt R. #2 (0.0526%)

95. Damian M. #1 (0.0488%)

96. Adam E. (0.0483%)

97. Mike G. (0.0457%)

98. Brent S. #3 (0.0422%)

99. Michelle L. #3 (0.0366%)

100. Brent E. #4 (0.035%)

101. Chris La. #3 (0.0325%)

102. Bobby H. (0.0315%)

103. Joe R. (0.0213%)

104. Jack Q. #3 (0.0203%)

105. Damian M. #2 (0.0198%)

106. Michelle R. #2 (0.0172%)

107. Brandon B. (0.0152%)

108. Steve H. #1 (0.0122%)

108. Klei R. #1 (0.0122%)

110. Roth W. (0.0106%)

110. Chun W. #1 (0.0106%)

112. Damien R. #1 (0.0091%)

113. Scott K. #2 (0.0073%)

114. Jay H. #3 (0.0061%)

115. Rich F. #1 (0.0045%)

115. Brent S. #2 (0.0045%)

117. Larry G. #1 (0.0022%)

118. Joseph H. (0.002%)

119. Amber W. (0.001%)