Saturday, March 28, 2015

The "Best game of the Season" edition



Wow.  I complain every year about a lack of upsets, but the hopeful side affect of fewer upsets is that the games are better played at the end.  That makes watching the games more intense and more interesting.

Both games were exquisitely played.  I was 100% certain that Notre Dame was going to knock off Kentucky.  They looked dead.  I think Notre Dame played about a perfect game, and it was just barely not enough.  I'm sure I would not have been a fun person to watch that game with.  I am not a Kentucky fan by any stretch of the imagination, but I've been telling anyone that will listen that this team is different than any other team I've seen since 1989 UNLV, so I've been pulling for them all season.  I was amazed at how well Notre Dame was able to score on Kentucky and how they were able to compete with Kentucky on the glass and in the paint.  Great game from them.

In the Wisconsin game, I was equally amazed at how well Sam Dekker shot the ball in the second half.  Based on what I've seen, it's not as much of a foregone conclusion that Kentucky will roll to the championship.  They made not even make it past Wisconsin.  Anyone that can shoot that good always has a chance.

So, even though 2 #1 seeds are in the Final 4 so far, I'm not totally disappointed.  They are great teams and the National Semifinal should be a fun one.

But because so many people had either Wisconsin or Arizona coming out of that region, it was a bloodbath of eliminations.  Here's what happened:

With Arizona loss:

Alyssa B. (2nd)
Angie B. (3rd, 4th)
Ben J. #2 (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Brandon H. (1st)
Brent E. #1 (4th)
Brent E. #4 (3rd, 4th)
Chad L. #3 (1st)
Chris La. #2 (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Chun W. #3 (1st, 3rd, 4th)
Chun W. #4 (4th)
Daisy N. #2 (1st)
Daisy N. #4 (4th)
Damian M. #2 (3rd, 4th)
Dan D. #1 (3rd, 4th)
Eric V. #1 (2nd, 4th)
Eric V. #3 (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
James G. #1 (3rd, 4th)
Jim D. #2 (3rd, 4th)
Jim K. (4th)
Jim W. (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Joe K. #2 (1st, 3rd)
Joe K. #3 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
Jonathan M. #1 (4th)
Julie S. (4th)
Kye G. #2 (2nd, 3rd)
Larry G. #1 (4th)
Luis B. #3 (3rd)
Michelle L. #2 (4th)
Michelle L. #3 (3rd, 4th)
Michelle R. #1 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
Mike W. (3rd, 4th)
Missy W. #2 (2nd)
Rich F. #1 (3rd, 4th)
Scott K. #2 (4th)
Scottt #1 (2nd)
Scottt #2 (3rd, 4th)
Steve H. #2 (3rd)
Todd K. #1 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
Todd K. #4 (1st)

With Notre Dame's Loss:
Bobby H. (4th)
Brent S. #1 (4th)
Carl B. (4th)
Chad L. #3 (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Chris Lu. #2 (3rd, 4th)
Christy K. #1 (3rd)
Chun W. #2 (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Daisy N. #4 (3rd)
Dan S. (3rd, 4th)
Daryl J. (4th)
Julie S. (2nd, 3rd)
Mark N. #2 (2nd)
Michelle R. #1 (4th)
Missy W. #2 (1st, 3rd, 4th)
Rich F. #2 (4th)
Steve D. (3rd)
Steve K. #2 (3rd)
Szecho L. (2nd)
Todd K. #1 (4th)

That leaves us with 42 people that still alive for at least one of the 4 payouts.  Based on points, the bracket with the fewest currently that can still get a place is Todd K. #4.  He currently has 67 points and sits in 140th place.  He has MSU winning it all, and Gonzaga in the Final 4.  I'm guessing if those things happen, either 3rd or 4th is his.  On the flip side, Jim W. is in 19th place with 81 points and can't win anything.  He had Arizona winning everything, so no matter what happens, he can't make up enough ground on the field to move into the top 4.  Tough break.

So both #1 seeds won today, and Kentucky was the overwhelming choice to win by most people.  Despite that, the average points gathered today was only 9.94.  69 people went 2/2.  If you were alive this morning, and you went 2/2, your bracket is still alive for something tonight.  That's a nice perk.  19 people went 0/2.  Of those 19, only the aforementioned Todd K. #4 is still alive for any kind of payment.  The tournament is also finished for another 16 people (bring the overall total to 18).  The highest total for a person that has no more points available is Bhav R. #2 with 78.  A decent total, but I feel that is not going to be eventually wind up in the bottom 1/3 by the time everything is said and done.

Here are the probabilities for 1st place:

1. Mark N. #2 (12.5%)
1. Michelle L. #2 (12.5%)
3. Daisy N. #4 (9.375%)
4. Christy K. #1 (7.8125%)
5. Todd K. #2 (6.25%)
5. Steve K. #2 (6.25%)
5. Chris Lu. #2 (6.25%)
5. Brent E. #1 (6.25%)
5. Daryl J. (6.25%)
5. Todd K. #3 (6.25%)
5. Alyssa B. (6.25%)
12. Szecho L. (3.125%)
12. Dan S. (3.125%)
12. Jonathan M. #1 (3.125%)
12. Scottt #1 (3.125%)
16. Steve D. (1.5625%)

I've mentioned Michelle L. #2's dependence on Louisville.  Mark N. #2 is currently the highest pointed sheet with Wisconsin winning it all.  Unlike Michelle L. #2, Mark N. #2 can still not got 1st place if Wisconsin wins it all.

Here are the probabilities for 2nd place:
1. Todd K. #2 (12.5%)
2. Daryl J. (9.375%)
2. Brent S. #1 (9.375%)
4. Jay K. (6.25%)
4. Steve K. #2 (6.25%)
4. Carl B. (6.25%)
4. Chad L. #2 (6.25%)
4. Todd K. #3 (6.25%)
9. Marissa W. #1 (3.125%)
9. Daisy N. #4 (3.125%)
9. Daisy N. #2 (3.125%)
9. Irene H. #2 (3.125%)
9. Dan S. (3.125%)
9. Brent E. #1 (3.125%)
9. Jonathan M. #1 (3.125%)
9. Rich F. #2 (3.125%)
9. Larry G. #2 (3.125%)
9. Brent S. #3 (3.125%)
9. Joe R. (3.125%)
20. Steve D. (1.5625%)
20. Christy K. #1 (1.5625%)

...and 3rd place:
1. Marissa W. #1 (7.8125%)
2. Bobby H. (6.25%)
2. Daisy N. #2 (6.25%)
2. Irene H. #2 (6.25%)
2. Carl B. (6.25%)
2. Chad L. #2 (6.25%)
7. Mark N. #2 (4.6875%)
7. Larry G. #2 (4.6875%)
7. Brent S. #3 (4.6875%)
7. Veronica A. (4.6875%)
11. Brent E. #1 (3.125%)
11. Todd K. #2 (3.125%)
11. Daryl J. (3.125%)
11. Brent S. #1 (3.125%)
11. Rich F. #2 (3.125%)
11. Todd K. #3 (3.125%)
11. Jonathan M. #1 (3.125%)
11. Joe R. (3.125%)
11. Brent S. #2 (3.125%)
11. Ryan W. (3.125%)
11. Kirt R. #1 (3.125%)
22. Todd K. #4 (1.5625%)
22. Szecho L. (1.5625%)
22. Jay K. (1.5625%)
22. Chris La. #3 (1.5625%)
22. April K. (1.5625%)

...and 4th place:

1. Todd K. #4 (7.8125%)
2. Dennis R. #1 (6.25%)
2. Scottt #1 (6.25%)
2. Tomas L. #1 (6.25%)
2. Mike S. #1 (6.25%)
6. Christy K. #1 (4.6875%)
6. Mark N. #2 (4.6875%)
8. Todd K. #3 (4.1666%)
9. Todd K. #2 (3.125%)
9. Irene H. #2 (3.125%)
9. Daisy N. #2 (3.125%)
9. Brandon H. (3.125%)
9. Chad L. #2 (3.125%)
9. Veronica A. (3.125%)
9. Steve K. #2 (3.125%)
9. Kirt R. #1 (3.125%)
9. April K. (3.125%)
9. Brent S. #2 (3.125%)
9. Alyssa B. (3.125%)
9. Joe K. #2 (3.125%)
9. Kye G. #1 (3.125%)
22. Steve D. (1.5625%)
22. Marissa W. #1 (1.5625%)
22. Larry G. #2 (1.5625%)
22. Brent S. #3 (1.5625%)
22. Szecho L. (1.5625%)
22. Jay K. (1.5625%)
22. Chris La. #3 (1.5625%)
29. Joe R. (1.0416%)
29. Bhav R. #1 (1.0416%)

For those that care about the points, here they are:

1. Todd K. #2: 97 (-15)
2. Todd K. #3: 90 (-22)
3. Chad L. #2: 89 (-23)
4. Jonathan M. #1: 87 (-33)
5. Brent E. #1: 86 (-26)
5. Daryl J.: 86 (-26)
5. Mark N. #2: 86 (-26)
8. Daisy N. #4: 85 (-35)
9. Brent S. #2: 84 (-36)
9. Christy K. #1: 84 (-36)
11. Steve K. #2: 82 (-30)
12. Joe R.: 82 (-38)
12. Brent S. #3: 82 (-38)
12. Larry G. #2: 82 (-38)
15. Bhav R. #1: 82 (-54)
15. Rich F. #2: 82 (-54)
17. Kye G. #1: 81 (-39)
17. Kirt R. #1: 81 (-39)
19. Jim W.: 81 (-79)
20. Ryan W.: 80 (-32)
20. Scottt #1: 80 (-32)
22. Chun W. #3: 80 (-40)
22. Gigi Q.: 80 (-40)
22. Larry G. #4: 80 (-40)
22. James G. #2: 80 (-40)
22. Mike S. #1: 80 (-40)
22. Brent S. #1: 80 (-40)
22. Jay K.: 80 (-40)
29. Brent E. #4: 80 (-56)
29. Larry G. #1: 80 (-56)
29. Jonathan M. #2: 80 (-56)
29. Chris La. #3: 80 (-56)
33. Chris La. #2: 80 (-88)
33. Kolton D.: 80 (-88)
35. Alyssa B.: 79 (-33)
36. Irene H. #2: 79 (-41)
37. Andrew D. #2: 79 (-57)
37. Jay H. #3: 79 (-57)
37. Amber W.: 79 (-57)
40. Klei R. #1: 79 (-65)
41. Todd K. #1: 79 (-81)
42. Dan D. #1: 79 (-89)
42. Brad E.: 79 (-89)
44. Daisy N. #1: 78 (-42)
44. Harrell R. #2: 78 (-42)
44. Jack Q. #3: 78 (-42)
47. Szecho L.: 78 (-50)
48. Ken P.: 78 (-58)
49. Bhav R. #2: 78 (-114)
50. Chris Lu. #1: 77 (-43)
50. Mark N. #1: 77 (-43)
52. Ben J. #2: 77 (-91)
52. Brent E. #2: 77 (-91)
52. Steve H. #1: 77 (-91)
55. Steve D.: 76 (-36)
56. Eric V. #1: 76 (-44)
56. Steve H. #2: 76 (-44)
56. Missy W. #1: 76 (-44)
56. Taima B #2: 76 (-44)
56. Dennis R. #2: 76 (-44)
56. Chris Lu. #2: 76 (-44)
56. Veronica A.: 76 (-44)
56. Bobby H.: 76 (-44)
64. Ally H.: 76 (-60)
64. Hutch H. #2: 76 (-60)
66. Larry G. #3: 76 (-92)
67. Marissa W. #1: 75 (-37)
67. Carl B.: 75 (-37)
69. Jim K.: 75 (-45)
69. Chun W. #4: 75 (-45)
71. Brandon B.: 75 (-61)
71. Peter J. #3: 75 (-61)
73. Ben J. #1: 75 (-69)
73. Jason G.: 75 (-69)
75. Mike W.: 75 (-85)
76. James G. #3: 75 (-93)
77. Eric V. #3: 75 (-109)
77. Scott K. #2: 75 (-109)
79. Daisy N. #2: 74 (-38)
80. James G. #1: 74 (-46)
80. Scottt #2: 74 (-46)
80. Rich F. #1: 74 (-46)
80. Jim D. #2: 74 (-46)
80. Peter J. #4: 74 (-46)
80. Dennis R. #1: 74 (-46)
86. Jax Q.: 74 (-62)
86. Chris L. #1: 74 (-62)
88. Hutch H. #1: 74 (-70)
89. Ron B.: 73 (-39)
89. Dan S.: 73 (-39)
91. Mike S. #2: 73 (-71)
91. Chad L. #1: 73 (-71)
91. Michelle L. #1: 73 (-71)
91. Jessica B.: 73 (-71)
95. Joe K. #3: 73 (-95)
96. Howard S. #1: 73 (-103)
97. Mindi W.: 73 (-119)
97. Chun W. #2: 73 (-119)
99. Matt N.: 72 (-48)
99. Ben S. #1: 72 (-48)
99. Becky H.: 72 (-48)
102. Andrew D. #1: 72 (-64)
102. John B.: 72 (-64)
104. Peter J. #2: 72 (-72)
105. Paul W.: 72 (-112)
106. Michelle L. #2: 71 (-41)
107. Dave M.: 71 (-49)
107. John M. #1: 71 (-49)
107. Brad R.: 71 (-49)
107. Tomas L. #1: 71 (-49)
107. Brandon H.: 71 (-49)
112. Luis B. #1: 71 (-65)
112. Scott H. #1: 71 (-65)
112. Peter J. #5: 71 (-65)
112. Jonathan M. #3: 71 (-65)
116. John E.: 71 (-73)
117. Kai Q.: 71 (-97)
117. Steve K. #1: 71 (-97)
119. Mason A. #1: 71 (-121)
120. Joe K. #2: 70 (-42)
121. Kye G. #2: 70 (-50)
121. Bret K. #1: 70 (-50)
123. Mike G.: 70 (-74)
124. Damian M. #2: 70 (-114)
125. Harrell R. #1: 70 (-122)
125. Shane B.: 70 (-122)
127. Michelle L. #3: 69 (-51)
127. Virginia L. #1: 69 (-51)
127. Damien R. #2: 69 (-51)
130. Scott H. #2: 69 (-67)
131. Howard S. #2: 69 (-99)
132. Joseph H.: 69 (-115)
133. April K.: 68 (-44)
134. Ben J. #3: 68 (-52)
135. Ben S. #2: 68 (-68)
135. Chad L. #3: 68 (-68)
137. Jenny E.: 68 (-100)
138. Peter J. #6: 68 (-116)
139. Dan D. #2: 68 (-124)
140. Todd K. #4: 67 (-61)
141. Jim D. #1: 67 (-69)
141. Joe K. #1: 67 (-69)
143. Bret K. #3: 67 (-77)
143. Bret K. #2: 67 (-77)
145. Kirt R. #2: 67 (-101)
145. Alex Q.: 67 (-101)
145. Virginia L. #2: 67 (-101)
148. Luis B. #2: 66 (-54)
148. Eric V. #2: 66 (-54)
150. Damian M. #3: 66 (-70)
151. Gary W.: 66 (-78)
151. Ben J. #4: 66 (-78)
153. Julie S.: 66 (-126)
154. Angie B.: 65 (-55)
154. Damien R. #1: 65 (-55)
154. Brett W.: 65 (-55)
154. Seth D.: 65 (-55)
158. Peter J. #1: 65 (-79)
159. Justin L.: 64 (-48)
160. Mason A. #2: 64 (-56)
160. Chun W. #1: 64 (-56)
162. Taima B. #1: 64 (-80)
162. Daisy N. #5: 64 (-80)
164. Kansas C.: 64 (-104)
165. Dustin B.: 63 (-57)
166. Irene H. #1: 63 (-73)
166. Michelle L. #4: 63 (-73)
166. John M. #2: 63 (-73)
169. Tomas L. #2: 63 (-81)
170. Dylan B.: 63 (-113)
170. William G. #4: 63 (-113)
172. Adam E.: 62 (-50)
172. Roth W.: 62 (-50)
174. Ray R.: 62 (-58)
175. Brian G. #1: 62 (-74)
176. William G. #3: 62 (-122)
177. Jay H. #1: 62 (-130)
178. Chris La. #4: 61 (-75)
179. Tim N.: 61 (-83)
180. James R.: 61 (-115)
180. Marissa W. #2: 61 (-115)
182. Hutch H. #3: 61 (-131)
183. Damian M. #1: 60 (-124)
183. William G. #1: 60 (-124)
183. Jack Q. #4: 60 (-124)
186. Irene H. #3: 59 (-101)
187. Michelle R. #2: 59 (-125)
188. Marc R.: 59 (-133)
189. Brent E. #3: 58 (-70)
190. Luis B. #3: 58 (-78)
190. Michelle R. #1: 58 (-78)
192. John M. #3: 58 (-126)
193. William G. #2: 57 (-87)
194. Scott K. #1: 57 (-135)
194. Marissa W. #3: 57 (-135)
196. Sue L.: 56 (-112)
196. Missy W. #2: 56 (-112)
198. Jeff W.: 56 (-136)
199. Jack Q. #2: 55 (-137)
200. Jay H. #2: 54 (-90)
201. Brian G. #2: 52 (-124)
202. Daisy N. #3: 52 (-140)
203. Christy K. #2: 51 (-117)
204. Jack Q. #1: 40 (-152)
205. Sally R.: 36 (-108)
206. Jonathan O.: 24 (-168)

Todd K. is having a pretty good run so far.  It's an enviable position to be in, but considering every game tomorrow is worth 8 points, and the next set of games is 16, and the last game is 32, there are still a lot of swings that could happen.

Here are the single game eliminations for tomorrow:

If Louisville loses:
April K. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Bhav R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Brent S. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Carl B. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Chad L. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Chris La. #3 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Daisy N. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Daisy N. #4 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Daryl J. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Irene H. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Jay K. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Joe R. is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention.
Jonathan M. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.
Kirt R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Larry G. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Mike S. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Rich F. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Ryan W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Steve K. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Szecho L. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Todd K. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Todd K. #3 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Veronica A. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

If Michigan State loses:
Alyssa B. is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.
Brandon H. is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Brent S. #3 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Chad L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Christy K. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Daisy N. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Dan S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.
Irene H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Joe K. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Joe R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Jonathan M. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Kirt R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Kye G. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Larry G. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Marissa W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Mark N. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Rich F. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Scottt #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Steve D. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 4th place contention.
Szecho L. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Todd K. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.
Todd K. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Todd K. #4 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

If Duke loses:
Alyssa B. is eliminated from 4th place contention.
April K. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Bobby H. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Brandon H. is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chad L. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention.
Chris La. #3 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Daisy N. #4 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.
Dan S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Dennis R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Jay K. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Joe K. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Kye G. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Marissa W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Mark N. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.
Rich F. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Ryan W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Szecho L. is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Todd K. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Todd K. #3 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.
Veronica A. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

If Gonzaga loses:
Bhav R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Brent S. #3 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chris Lu. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Christy K. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 4th place contention.
Daisy N. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Dan S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Daryl J. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Irene H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Joe R. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Jonathan M. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Kirt R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Larry G. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Marissa W. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Mike S. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Scottt #1 is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.
Steve D. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 4th place contention.
Steve K. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 4th place contention.
Todd K. #4 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Tomas L. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

So that's it.  We'll be down to 4 teams left by tomorrow night.  The stakes will be higher since the points will be higher after tomorrow.  If the games are anything like today's we are in for a great day of basketball.

I would be remiss if I didn't give a little credit to Dan & Julie S.  I got their payment today, and it had a postcard and a scratcher with it.  That made me smile.  Sadly, I didn't win anything with the scratcher, but I appreciated the gesture.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow!!!!!

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