Thursday, March 19, 2015

The "I Hate UCLA" edition.....



I never used to hate UCLA, but I think I'm growing to become a pretty solid anti-UCLA partisan.  First off, they shouldn't be in the tournament at all.  Second of all, now they are probably going to be favored to make the Sweet 16.  I'm sure they will say that that justifies putting them in them tournament.  It doesn't.  No amount of convincing will get me to believe that their record deserved to be put in the field.  Today they got the benefit of a few things.  First, SMU choked like dogs.  They threw a pass away when no one was pressuring them.  Next, the refs called goaltending on a desperation 3-point shot that maybe looks like goaltending if you squint really hard at it.  Problem is: referees shouldn't be squinting to make calls.  That was a terrible call.  SMU also helped by putting the refs in position to make that call, but come on.  That was a disgraceful performance against an NIT team.  Maybe the committee was right to snub SMU last year.  I'm not happy about it.

As far as the pool goes, SMU crushed any hope most people had of getting points from that part of the region.  A whopping 3 people predicted a UCLA / UAB second round game (Brian G. #2, Jonathan O., Christy K. #2).  Good picking by those 3.  My SMU / Iowa State prediction could not have been more wrong.  SMU was also a trendy pick to advance.  21 people had them in the Sweet 16.  8 people had them in the elite 8.  5 people had SMU in the Final 4.  2 people had them in the Championship game.  Sadly, Michelle R. #2 had them winning it all.  It gets worse for Michelle R. #2.  Her Championship game was SMU beating Baylor.  That counts as the first person to lose both members of the final game.  That hurts.

Texas also lost to Butler, so at least one mediocre team got bounced.  Only 8 people had Texas in the Sweet 16.  2 people had them in the Elite 8 (Kolton D. , Eric V. #2).  That was probably worth a shot to gain some points on the field.  No one had them going to the Final 4.

Here are the updated scores:
1. Scottt #2: 5 (-3)
2. William G. #4: 5 (-15)
3. Brandon H.: 4 (-2)
3. Marissa W. #1: 4 (-2)
3. Brian G. #2: 4 (-2)
6. Scottt #1: 4 (-4)
6. Jax Q.: 4 (-4)
6. Jim W.: 4 (-4)
6. Kirt R. #2: 4 (-4)
10. Bhav R. #1: 4 (-6)
10. Eric V. #3: 4 (-6)
10. Gigi Q.: 4 (-6)
10. Irene H. #2: 4 (-6)
10. Jonathan M. #2: 4 (-6)
10. Kansas C.: 4 (-6)
10. Kirt R. #1: 4 (-6)
10. Tim N.: 4 (-6)
10. Todd K. #2: 4 (-6)
10. Jeff W.: 4 (-6)
10. Chris La. #4: 4 (-6)
21. Dan S.: 4 (-8)
21. Jessica B.: 4 (-8)
21. Michelle L. #3: 4 (-8)
21. Bret K. #1: 4 (-8)
25. Andrew D. #2: 4 (-10)
25. Ben J. #3: 4 (-10)
25. Daisy N. #1: 4 (-10)
25. Jay K.: 4 (-10)
25. Peter J. #6: 4 (-10)
25. Roth W.: 4 (-10)
25. Carl B.: 4 (-10)
25. Jonathan O.: 4 (-10)
33. Ron B.: 4 (-14)
34. Amber W.: 4 (-18)
35. Peter J. #1: 4 (-22)
36. Dylan B.: 4 (-30)
37. Julie S.: 4 (-34)
38. Jay H. #2: 4 (-46)
39. Marissa W. #2: 3 (-3)
39. Bhav R. #2: 3 (-3)
39. Marissa W. #3: 3 (-3)
42. Dan D. #1: 3 (-5)
42. Jim K.: 3 (-5)
42. Larry G. #4: 3 (-5)
42. William G. #3: 3 (-5)
42. John M. #1: 3 (-5)
42. Missy W. #2: 3 (-5)
42. Michelle R. #1: 3 (-5)
42. William G. #2: 3 (-5)
42. William G. #1: 3 (-5)
51. Alex Q.: 3 (-7)
51. Angie B.: 3 (-7)
51. Brandon B.: 3 (-7)
51. Brent E. #2: 3 (-7)
51. Brent E. #4: 3 (-7)
51. Brent S. #3: 3 (-7)
51. Christy K. #1: 3 (-7)
51. Daisy N. #4: 3 (-7)
51. Dennis R. #2: 3 (-7)
51. Jack Q. #4: 3 (-7)
51. James G. #1: 3 (-7)
51. James G. #2: 3 (-7)
51. Joseph H.: 3 (-7)
51. Kye G. #1: 3 (-7)
51. Mark N. #1: 3 (-7)
51. Scott H. #2: 3 (-7)
51. Steve H. #2: 3 (-7)
51. Todd K. #1: 3 (-7)
51. Todd K. #3: 3 (-7)
51. Veronica A.: 3 (-7)
51. Bret K. #3: 3 (-7)
51. Jack Q. #1: 3 (-7)
51. Bobby H.: 3 (-7)
51. Jack Q. #3: 3 (-7)
51. Todd K. #4: 3 (-7)
51. Michelle L. #2: 3 (-7)
51. Ally H.: 3 (-7)
51. Damien R. #1: 3 (-7)
51. Dave M.: 3 (-7)
51. Larry G. #1: 3 (-7)
51. Larry G. #2: 3 (-7)
51. Steve K. #1: 3 (-7)
51. Steve D.: 3 (-7)
51. Szecho L.: 3 (-7)
85. Chad L. #3: 3 (-9)
85. Ryan W.: 3 (-9)
85. Ben S. #1: 3 (-9)
85. Jim D. #2: 3 (-9)
85. Steve H. #1: 3 (-9)
85. Damien R. #2: 3 (-9)
85. Kolton D.: 3 (-9)
92. Andrew D. #1: 3 (-11)
92. Chris L. #1: 3 (-11)
92. Damian M. #1: 3 (-11)
92. Damian M. #2: 3 (-11)
92. Hutch H. #2: 3 (-11)
92. Irene H. #1: 3 (-11)
92. Jenny E.: 3 (-11)
92. Joe K. #1: 3 (-11)
92. Joe K. #2: 3 (-11)
92. Justin L.: 3 (-11)
92. Larry G. #3: 3 (-11)
92. Mike W.: 3 (-11)
92. Scott H. #1: 3 (-11)
92. Dennis R. #1: 3 (-11)
92. Mason A. #2: 3 (-11)
92. Seth D.: 3 (-11)
92. Christy K. #2: 3 (-11)
92. Brett W.: 3 (-11)
92. Chad L. #2: 3 (-11)
92. Daryl J.: 3 (-11)
92. Harrell R. #2: 3 (-11)
92. April K.: 3 (-11)
92. John B.: 3 (-11)
115. Alyssa B.: 3 (-15)
115. Matt N.: 3 (-15)
115. Virginia L. #1: 3 (-15)
118. Jason G.: 3 (-17)
118. Jack Q. #2: 3 (-17)
118. Howard S. #1: 3 (-17)
121. Joe K. #3: 3 (-19)
121. Daisy N. #3: 3 (-19)
121. Michelle L. #1: 3 (-19)
121. Daisy N. #2: 3 (-19)
121. Tomas L. #1: 3 (-19)
121. Tomas L. #2: 3 (-19)
121. Missy W. #1: 3 (-19)
121. Dan D. #2: 3 (-19)
129. Klei R. #1: 3 (-33)
129. Shane B.: 3 (-33)
131. Mason A. #1: 3 (-35)
131. Paul W.: 3 (-35)
131. Ben J. #4: 3 (-35)
131. Bret K. #2: 3 (-35)
131. Mindi W.: 3 (-35)
131. Brian G. #1: 3 (-35)
131. John E.: 3 (-35)
131. Mike G.: 3 (-35)
131. Peter J. #2: 3 (-35)
131. Jonathan M. #3: 3 (-35)
141. Jay H. #1: 3 (-67)
141. Virginia L. #2: 3 (-67)
143. Michelle R. #2: 3 (-95)
144. Jonathan M. #1: 2 (-6)
144. Ben J. #2: 2 (-6)
144. Kai Q.: 2 (-6)
144. Becky H.: 2 (-6)
148. Ben S. #2: 2 (-8)
148. Brent E. #1: 2 (-8)
148. Brent E. #3: 2 (-8)
148. Brent S. #1: 2 (-8)
148. Brent S. #2: 2 (-8)
148. Chun W. #3: 2 (-8)
148. Chun W. #4: 2 (-8)
148. Daisy N. #5: 2 (-8)
148. Eric V. #1: 2 (-8)
148. Jay H. #3: 2 (-8)
148. Joe R.: 2 (-8)
148. Ken P.: 2 (-8)
148. Kye G. #2: 2 (-8)
148. Luis B. #1: 2 (-8)
148. Luis B. #2: 2 (-8)
148. Luis B. #3: 2 (-8)
148. Mark N. #2: 2 (-8)
148. Mike S. #1: 2 (-8)
148. Taima B #2: 2 (-8)
148. Chris La. #2: 2 (-8)
148. Scott K. #2: 2 (-8)
148. Howard S. #2: 2 (-8)
170. Brad E.: 2 (-10)
170. Dustin B.: 2 (-10)
170. Peter J. #4: 2 (-10)
170. John M. #3: 2 (-10)
174. Adam E.: 2 (-12)
174. Chris La. #3: 2 (-12)
174. Damian M. #3: 2 (-12)
174. James G. #3: 2 (-12)
174. Jim D. #1: 2 (-12)
174. Peter J. #3: 2 (-12)
174. Peter J. #5: 2 (-12)
174. Ray R.: 2 (-12)
174. Rich F. #1: 2 (-12)
174. Rich F. #2: 2 (-12)
174. John M. #2: 2 (-12)
174. Chris Lu. #1: 2 (-12)
174. Chris Lu. #2: 2 (-12)
174. Steve K. #2: 2 (-12)
174. Brad R.: 2 (-12)
174. Sally R.: 2 (-12)
190. Eric V. #2: 2 (-14)
191. Taima B. #1: 2 (-20)
191. Marc R.: 2 (-20)
191. Ben J. #1: 2 (-20)
191. Hutch H. #1: 2 (-20)
191. James R.: 2 (-20)
191. Sue L.: 2 (-20)
191. Chad L. #1: 2 (-20)
198. Chun W. #1: 2 (-24)
198. Hutch H. #3: 2 (-24)
200. Michelle L. #4: 2 (-34)
201. Harrell R. #1: 2 (-36)
201. Gary W.: 2 (-36)
201. Mike S. #2: 2 (-36)
201. Chun W. #2: 2 (-36)
205. Scott K. #1: 2 (-38)
206. Irene H. #3: 2 (-68)


So the best we've got is 5/8.  The average points are 2.88 with the average points lost -13.60.  That's pretty bad.  Things have been really strange so far, that's for sure.  IF it were anyone other than UCLA, I would love it so far.  Good times.....

The afternoon games are staggered a little differently.  They seem to all go off at about the same time, so I'll give the stats now.

The first is the first #1 seed to play.  Villanova / Lafayette:
Villanova: 205
Lafayette: 1
Vegas Line: Villanova -22.5

Not the biggest point spread of the day so far (Arizona -24), but it was close.  Fun fact: I think Butler was the first favorite to cover the spread so far today.   Once again, my Mom is the lone brave soul to pick Lafayette.  No #1 seed has ever lost an opening round game, and Villanova does have a recent history of choking.  I'd love to see it.  My Mom would have bragging rights for a lifetime.

The next game promises to be closer: Cincinnati / Purdue
Purdue: 117
Cincinnati: 89
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -1.5

There are two conflicting trends on this one.  Vegas likes Cincinnati, but I think historically, 9s have a better record than 8s.  IF you use that last stat, it makes sense we would take Purdue more.  Honestly, I can't understand why this isn't closer to being even.  Maybe that's a value pick for Cincinnati.  Every point counts, right?

The third game is North Carolina / Harvard
North Carolina: 194
Harvard: 12
Vegas Line:  North Carolina -10.5

It's the match up of two schools that have been found guilty by the NCAA of academic fraud.  Good times!!!  Harvard was a super trendy pick last year, and they didn't let you down.  This year, the polish is not nearly as shiny.  They still have a shot.  North Carolina has been kind of inconsistent this year, so its possible they roll a terrible game.  Given this year, nothing would surprise me.  Georgia State only had 9 people pick them after all, and they won.  UAB had even less.

The last game is the infamous 12/5 game that everyone loves:  Utah / Stephen F Austin
Utah: 145
SF Austin: 61
Vegas Line: Utah -6.5

This a super trendy pick.  SF Austin made the second round last year, and I think they have most of the team back.  Of course people are aware that 5's get knocked off all the time.  This is probably the game I'm most interested in.  Watch, this will be a blowout.  It's some kind of karmic payback for people that think they can accurately pick upsets.  The best bet for an upset is a terrible game, and the game no one predicts wins.  Such is the tournament, and that's why I love it.

I'll be back once the last of the early games are finished with updated standings.

No comments:

Post a Comment