Friday, March 27, 2015

MXC Edition



Good evening again everyone.  I had an entertaining night watching basketball.  The games largely went to form, with the exception of the MSU / Oklahoma  game.  When the brackets were released, I felt that largely everyone would take Kentucky and the winner of the pool would be whoever did the best on the other side of the bracket.  It turns out that I was close.  3 of the 4 regions are going largely by the seeds.  Two of them feature a 1 vs. 2, and a third featured a 1 vs. a 3 seed.  By and large, people still have a large of potential points available in those regions.  It is really the 4th region that is really separating the field.  If you somehow picked largely chalk in the other 3 regions and went off the reservation to pick something crazy from that East bracket, you are probably looking pretty good.  If you manage to get that regions winner correct, you are probably gaining 10-14 points on the field.  That is a ton....  This is all evidenced by the eliminations that went along with the MSU / Oklahoma game.  As I've mentioned in other posts, our pool skews heavily towards MSU.  The fact that they won tonight gave all those brackets an additional 4 points on the field.  That knocked a lot people out.

Speaking of which, here were the eliminations today.   I sent out data yesterday, but remember that those were single game eliminations.  Some people may have been knocked out if a combination of 2 or more teams lost today where no single could have.

With UCLA's Loss:

Ben S. #1 (4th)
Brian G. #1 (1st, 3rd)
Chad L. #2 (1st)
Daisy N. #1 (1st, 2nd)
Damien R. #2 (4th)
Dustin B. (3rd)
Harrell R. #2 (4th)
Hutch H. #2 (3rd, 4th)
James G. #3 (1st)
Jay K. (1st)
Jeff W. (1st)
Jessica B. (3rd, 4th)
Jim D. #2 (2nd)
Joe K. #2 (2nd)
Joe K. #3 (4th)
Jonathan M. #3 (2nd, 3rd)
Jonathan O. (3rd)
Klei R. #1 (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Kolton D. (2nd)
Larry G. #3 (3rd, 4th)
Marissa W. #1 (1st)
Michelle L. #2 (2nd, 3rd)
Michelle L. #3 (1st, 2nd)
Mike W. (1st)
Mindi W. (1st, 2nd)
Paul W. (3rd, 4th)
Rich F. #1 (2nd)
Ron B. (4th)
Ryan W. (2nd)
Steve H. #1 (2nd, 3rd)

With NC State's Loss:

Angie B. (1st, 2nd)
Bhav R. #1 (3rd)
Brandon B. (4th)
Brandon H. (3rd)
Brent E. #2 (4th)
Brent S. #2 (2nd)
Chris La. #2 (1st)
Chris La. #3 (2nd)
Daisy N. #1 (3rd, 4th)
Damian M. #1 (2nd, 3rd)
Eric V. #3 (1st)
James G. #3 (2nd, 3rd)
Jenny E. (3rd)
John M. #1 (2nd)
Joseph H. (4th)
Kye G. #2 (4th)
Mike S. #2 (4th)
Mike W. (2nd)
Mindi W. (3rd)
Scott K. #2 (2nd, 3rd)
Steve H. #1 (4th)
Steve K. #1 (2nd)
Tomas L. #1 (2nd, 3rd)
William G. #3 (3rd, 4th)

With Utah's Loss:
Alyssa B. (3rd)
Becky H. (4th)
Bhav R. #2 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
Brent E. #4 (2nd)
Brian G. #1 (2nd, 4th)
Chris Lu. #1 (3rd)
Daisy N. #5 (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Damian M. #2 (2nd)
Harrell R. #1 (2nd, 3rd)
Jack Q. #3 (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Jenny E. (4th)
John M. #1 (3rd, 4th)
Jonathan M. #3 (4th)
Jonathan O. (4th)
Julie S. (1st)
Kolton D. (1st, 3rd, 4th)
Larry G. #1 (2nd)
Larry G. #2 (1st)
Mason A. #1 (1st)
Mike S. #2 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
Mindi W. (4th)
Scottt #1 (3rd)
Sue L. (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Todd K. #4 (2nd)


...and the bloodbath of the tournament:  Oklahoma's Loss:

Ally H. (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Becky H. (2nd, 3rd)
Bhav R. #2 (4th)
Brandon H. (2nd)
Bret K. #1 (4th)
Chris Lu. #1 (1st, 2nd, 4th)
Chris Lu. #2 (2nd)
Chun W. #3 (2nd)
Chun W. #4 (3rd)
Damian M. #1 (4th)
Dan D. #1 (1st, 2nd)
Dennis R. #1 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
Dustin B. (4th)
Eric V. #1 (1st, 3rd)
Harrell R. #1 (4th)
Irene H. #2 (1st)
James G. #3 (4th)
Jeff W. (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Jenny E. (1st, 2nd)
Jim K. (2nd, 3rd)
Joe R. (1st)
Kirt R. #1 (2nd)
Larry G. #1 (3rd)
Luis B. #3 (2nd, 4th)
Mason A. #1 (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Mike S. #1 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
Missy W. #1 (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Ray R. (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Rich F. #2 (1st)
Roth W. (3rd, 4th)
Ryan W. (4th)
Steve H. #2 (1st, 2nd, 4th)
Steve K. #1 (1st, 3rd, 4th)

That leaves us with 72 people that are still alive for at least one of the 4 places.  Let's get a rundown of the picks on the day.  Remember yesterday when the average bracket got a little over 12 points.  the average today was 6.99 points.  That is compliments of Virginia & Villanova's early exits.  7 people managed to go 4/4 today, including Irene H. #3, who was mathematically eliminated from all positions before the day started.  At least this will help with bragging rights.  The other 6 people that went 4/4 today were: Carl B., Jim W., Mark N. #2, Szecho L., Todd K. #1 & Todd K. #2.  There were slightly more people today that went 0/4 at 13.  The must untimely of those was Mason A. #1, who dropped in the points standings from 9th yesterday to 86th today.  The only one of the 11 0/4 teams to not be eliminated from all contention was Julie S, who can still get 2nd, 3rd or 4th.  That is largely due to her having Notre Dame winning it all.

So, here are the brackets that are still alive for 1st place:

1. Michelle L. #2 (12.5%)
2. Chun W. #2 (8.5937%)
3. Mark N. #2 (8.2031%)
4. Todd K. #1 (6.25%)
5. Szecho L. (5.0781%)
6. Todd K. #2 (4.6875%)
6. Todd K. #4 (4.6875%)
8. Steve K. #2 (4.427%)
9. Michelle R. #1 (3.6458%)
10. Missy W. #2 (3.125%)
10. Ben J. #2 (3.125%)
10. Chris Lu. #2 (3.125%)
10. Daisy N. #4 (3.125%)
10. Brent E. #1 (3.125%)
15. Jim W. (2.7343%)
16. Daryl J. (2.3437%)
16. Jonathan M. #1 (2.3437%)
16. Todd K. #3 (2.3437%)
16. Scottt #1 (2.3437%)
20. Steve D. (1.9531%)
20. Christy K. #1 (1.9531%)
22. Chad L. #3 (1.5625%)
22. Brandon H. (1.5625%)
22. Dan S. (1.5625%)
22. Alyssa B. (1.5625%)
26. Daisy N. #2 (1.302%)
27. Joe K. #3 (1.1718%)
28. Chun W. #3 (0.7812%)
28. Joe K. #2 (0.7812%)

Michelle L. #2 is at the top entirely because she is the only person to pick Louisville to win everything.  You can see that her percentage equates to 1/8.  Regardless of any other games outcome, if Louisville doesn't win it all, she's out.  If Louisville wins it all, she wins.  Most of the other picks are not so dependent on one team, so they have lower percentages.

Here are the probabilities for 2nd place:

1. Todd K. #2 (10.1562%)
2. Daryl J. (5.4687%)
2. Julie S. (5.4687%)
4. Steve K. #2 (5.2083%)
5. Todd K. #1 (5.0781%)
6. Jim W. (4.6875%)
7. Daisy N. #2 (4.427%)
8. Chun W. #2 (3.9062%)
8. Szecho L. (3.9062%)
8. Chad L. #3 (3.9062%)
11. Mark N. #2 (3.5156%)
11. Jonathan M. #1 (3.5156%)
13. Marissa W. #1 (3.125%)
13. Jay K. (3.125%)
15. Steve D. (2.7343%)
16. Daisy N. #4 (2.3437%)
16. Carl B. (2.3437%)
16. Brent S. #1 (2.3437%)
16. Chad L. #2 (2.3437%)
20. Missy W. #2 (1.5625%)
20. Ben J. #2 (1.5625%)
20. Irene H. #2 (1.5625%)
20. Eric V. #3 (1.5625%)
20. Dan S. (1.5625%)
20. Todd K. #3 (1.5625%)
20. Brent E. #1 (1.5625%)
20. Joe K. #3 (1.5625%)
20. Chris La. #2 (1.5625%)
29. Kye G. #2 (1.1718%)
29. Christy K. #1 (1.1718%)
31. Eric V. #1 (0.7812%)
31. Rich F. #2 (0.7812%)
31. Larry G. #2 (0.7812%)
31. Brent S. #3 (0.7812%)
31. Scottt #1 (0.7812%)
31. Joe R. (0.7812%)
31. Alyssa B. (0.7812%)
38. Michelle R. #1 (0.5208%)

...and the probabilities for 3rd place:

1. Brent E. #1 (6.25%)
2. Julie S. (5.4687%)
3. Luis B. #3 (4.6875%)
4. Daisy N. #2 (4.427%)
5. Jim W. (4.2968%)
5. Mark N. #2 (4.2968%)
7. Todd K. #4 (3.9062%)
7. Marissa W. #1 (3.9062%)
9. Todd K. #1 (3.5156%)
10. Missy W. #2 (3.125%)
10. Daryl J. (3.125%)
10. Carl B. (3.125%)
13. Steve K. #2 (2.8645%)
14. Todd K. #2 (2.7343%)
14. Bobby H. (2.7343%)
16. Irene H. #2 (2.3437%)
17. Steve D. (1.9531%)
18. Todd K. #3 (1.7187%)
19. Eric V. #3 (1.5625%)
19. Chad L. #3 (1.5625%)
19. Steve H. #2 (1.5625%)
19. Larry G. #2 (1.5625%)
19. Brent S. #3 (1.5625%)
19. Chris La. #2 (1.5625%)
19. Brent S. #1 (1.5625%)
19. Angie B. (1.5625%)
19. Rich F. #2 (1.5625%)
19. Mike W. (1.5625%)
19. Chad L. #2 (1.5625%)
30. Jonathan M. #1 (1.1718%)
30. Veronica A. (1.1718%)
30. Szecho L. (1.1718%)
30. Chun W. #3 (1.1718%)
30. Daisy N. #4 (1.1718%)
35. Dan D. #1 (0.7812%)
35. Chris Lu. #2 (0.7812%)
35. Dan S. (0.7812%)
35. Joe R. (0.7812%)
35. Brent S. #2 (0.7812%)
35. Ryan W. (0.7812%)
35. Christy K. #1 (0.7812%)
35. Ben J. #2 (0.7812%)
35. Joe K. #2 (0.7812%)
35. Kirt R. #1 (0.7812%)
45. Michelle R. #1 (0.5208%)
46. Chun W. #2 (0.3906%)
46. Jay K. (0.3906%)
46. Chris La. #3 (0.3906%)
46. Kye G. #2 (0.3906%)
46. Michelle L. #3 (0.3906%)
46. April K. (0.3906%)
46. Damian M. #2 (0.3906%)
46. Brent E. #4 (0.3906%)
46. Joe K. #3 (0.3906%)
55. Rich F. #1 (0.1562%)
55. Scottt #2 (0.1562%)
55. James G. #1 (0.1562%)
55. Jim D. #2 (0.1562%)


...and finally for 4th place:

1. Todd K. #1 (5.7291%)
2. Marissa W. #1 (5.4687%)
3. Todd K. #4 (4.6875%)
3. Angie B. (4.6875%)
5. Chris La. #2 (3.9062%)
6. Irene H. #2 (3.125%)
6. Steve D. (3.125%)
6. Missy W. #2 (3.125%)
9. Todd K. #2 (2.7343%)
9. Brandon H. (2.7343%)
9. Scottt #1 (2.7343%)
12. Jim W. (2.3437%)
12. Daryl J. (2.3437%)
12. Dan D. #1 (2.3437%)
12. Tomas L. #1 (2.3437%)
12. Dennis R. #1 (2.3437%)
12. Mike W. (2.3437%)
12. Carl B. (2.3437%)
19. Christy K. #1 (1.9531%)
20. Mark N. #2 (1.5625%)
20. Mike S. #1 (1.5625%)
20. Szecho L. (1.5625%)
20. Julie S. (1.5625%)
20. Chad L. #2 (1.5625%)
20. Brent S. #1 (1.5625%)
20. Ben J. #2 (1.5625%)
27. Todd K. #3 (1.1979%)
28. Daisy N. #2 (1.1718%)
28. Larry G. #2 (1.1718%)
28. Brent S. #3 (1.1718%)
28. Eric V. #3 (1.1718%)
28. Larry G. #1 (1.1718%)
33. Jonathan M. #1 (1.0416%)
34. Chris Lu. #2 (0.7812%)
34. Jim K. (0.7812%)
34. Rich F. #2 (0.7812%)
34. Eric V. #1 (0.7812%)
34. Veronica A. (0.7812%)
34. Steve K. #2 (0.7812%)
34. Chad L. #3 (0.7812%)
34. Damian M. #2 (0.7812%)
34. Chun W. #4 (0.7812%)
34. Chun W. #3 (0.7812%)
34. Dan S. (0.7812%)
34. Kirt R. #1 (0.7812%)
34. Daisy N. #4 (0.7812%)
34. Michelle L. #3 (0.7812%)
34. April K. (0.7812%)
34. Brent S. #2 (0.7812%)
34. Alyssa B. (0.7812%)
34. Joe K. #2 (0.7812%)
34. Brent E. #4 (0.7812%)
34. Brent E. #1 (0.7812%)
34. Kye G. #1 (0.7812%)
55. Michelle L. #2 (0.651%)
56. Chun W. #2 (0.3906%)
56. Jay K. (0.3906%)
56. Bobby H. (0.3906%)
56. Chris La. #3 (0.3906%)
56. Michelle R. #1 (0.3906%)
56. Scott K. #2 (0.3906%)
62. Joe R. (0.2604%)
62. Bhav R. #1 (0.2604%)
64. Rich F. #1 (0.1562%)
64. Scottt #2 (0.1562%)
64. James G. #1 (0.1562%)
64. Jim D. #2 (0.1562%)

For those that care about the points standings:

1. Todd K. #2: 81 (-15)
2. Todd K. #1: 79 (-17)
3. Jonathan M. #1: 79 (-25)
4. Mark N. #2: 78 (-18)
5. Todd K. #3: 74 (-22)
6. Jim W.: 73 (-23)
6. Chad L. #2: 73 (-23)
8. Scottt #1: 72 (-24)
9. Chris La. #2: 72 (-32)
9. Chun W. #3: 72 (-32)
11. Larry G. #1: 72 (-48)
11. Brent E. #4: 72 (-48)
13. Dan D. #1: 71 (-33)
14. Amber W.: 71 (-57)
15. Szecho L.: 70 (-26)
15. Daryl J.: 70 (-26)
15. Brent E. #1: 70 (-26)
18. Ken P.: 70 (-50)
19. Bhav R. #2: 70 (-58)
20. Damian M. #2: 70 (-82)
21. Ben J. #2: 69 (-35)
21. Daisy N. #4: 69 (-35)
23. Brent E. #2: 69 (-83)
23. Steve H. #1: 69 (-83)
25. Steve D.: 68 (-28)
26. Brent S. #2: 68 (-36)
26. Christy K. #1: 68 (-36)
26. Chad L. #3: 68 (-36)
26. Eric V. #1: 68 (-36)
26. Steve H. #2: 68 (-36)
31. Missy W. #1: 68 (-44)
32. Larry G. #3: 68 (-84)
33. Mike W.: 67 (-29)
33. Todd K. #4: 67 (-29)
35. Carl B.: 67 (-37)
35. James G. #3: 67 (-37)
35. Chun W. #4: 67 (-37)
35. Jim K.: 67 (-37)
35. Marissa W. #1: 67 (-37)
40. Brandon B.: 67 (-53)
40. Eric V. #3: 67 (-53)
42. Scott K. #2: 67 (-85)
43. Steve K. #2: 66 (-30)
44. James G. #1: 66 (-38)
44. Scottt #2: 66 (-38)
44. Rich F. #1: 66 (-38)
44. Jim D. #2: 66 (-38)
44. Brent S. #3: 66 (-38)
44. Larry G. #2: 66 (-38)
44. Daisy N. #2: 66 (-38)
44. Joe R.: 66 (-38)
52. Bhav R. #1: 66 (-54)
52. Rich F. #2: 66 (-54)
54. Dan S.: 65 (-31)
55. Ron B.: 65 (-39)
55. Joe K. #3: 65 (-39)
55. Kye G. #1: 65 (-39)
55. Kirt R. #1: 65 (-39)
59. Chad L. #1: 65 (-63)
59. Mindi W.: 65 (-63)
59. Chun W. #2: 65 (-63)
62. Ryan W.: 64 (-32)
63. Gigi Q.: 64 (-40)
63. Larry G. #4: 64 (-40)
63. Ben S. #1: 64 (-40)
63. James G. #2: 64 (-40)
63. Brent S. #1: 64 (-40)
63. Jay K.: 64 (-40)
63. Mike S. #1: 64 (-40)
70. Jonathan M. #2: 64 (-56)
70. Paul W.: 64 (-56)
70. Chris La. #3: 64 (-56)
73. Peter J. #2: 64 (-64)
74. Kolton D.: 64 (-88)
75. Michelle L. #2: 63 (-33)
75. Alyssa B.: 63 (-33)
77. Dave M.: 63 (-41)
77. John M. #1: 63 (-41)
77. Brandon H.: 63 (-41)
77. Irene H. #2: 63 (-41)
81. Tomas L. #1: 63 (-49)
82. Luis B. #1: 63 (-57)
82. Andrew D. #2: 63 (-57)
82. Scott H. #1: 63 (-57)
82. Jay H. #3: 63 (-57)
86. John E.: 63 (-65)
86. Klei R. #1: 63 (-65)
86. Jonathan M. #3: 63 (-65)
86. Mason A. #1: 63 (-65)
90. Kai Q.: 63 (-89)
90. Brad E.: 63 (-89)
90. Steve K. #1: 63 (-89)
93. Joe K. #2: 62 (-34)
94. Daisy N. #1: 62 (-42)
94. Kye G. #2: 62 (-42)
94. Harrell R. #2: 62 (-42)
94. Jack Q. #3: 62 (-42)
98. Bret K. #1: 62 (-50)
99. William G. #3: 62 (-58)
100. Shane B.: 62 (-66)
100. Harrell R. #1: 62 (-66)
102. Mike G.: 62 (-74)
103. Mark N. #1: 61 (-43)
103. Damien R. #2: 61 (-43)
103. Chris Lu. #1: 61 (-43)
103. Michelle L. #3: 61 (-43)
107. Joseph H.: 61 (-59)
107. Scott H. #2: 61 (-59)
109. Howard S. #2: 61 (-91)
110. Taima B #2: 60 (-44)
110. Dennis R. #2: 60 (-44)
110. Jenny E.: 60 (-44)
110. Veronica A.: 60 (-44)
110. Bobby H.: 60 (-44)
110. April K.: 60 (-44)
110. Chris Lu. #2: 60 (-44)
117. Hutch H. #2: 60 (-60)
117. Peter J. #6: 60 (-60)
117. Damian M. #1: 60 (-60)
117. Ally H.: 60 (-60)
121. Ben S. #2: 60 (-68)
121. Dan D. #2: 60 (-68)
121. Jack Q. #4: 60 (-68)
124. William G. #1: 60 (-124)
125. Jim D. #1: 59 (-61)
125. Peter J. #3: 59 (-61)
127. Bret K. #3: 59 (-69)
127. Ben J. #1: 59 (-69)
127. Jason G.: 59 (-69)
130. Bret K. #2: 59 (-77)
131. Alex Q.: 59 (-93)
132. Irene H. #3: 59 (-101)
132. Kirt R. #2: 59 (-101)
132. Virginia L. #2: 59 (-101)
135. Michelle R. #2: 59 (-117)
136. Peter J. #4: 58 (-46)
136. Luis B. #2: 58 (-46)
136. Eric V. #2: 58 (-46)
136. Luis B. #3: 58 (-46)
136. Dennis R. #1: 58 (-46)
136. Michelle R. #1: 58 (-46)
142. Jax Q.: 58 (-62)
142. Damian M. #3: 58 (-62)
142. Chris L. #1: 58 (-62)
145. Gary W.: 58 (-70)
145. Hutch H. #1: 58 (-70)
145. Brent E. #3: 58 (-70)
145. Julie S.: 58 (-70)
149. Damien R. #1: 57 (-47)
149. Brett W.: 57 (-47)
149. Seth D.: 57 (-47)
149. Angie B.: 57 (-47)
153. Mike S. #2: 57 (-71)
153. Michelle L. #1: 57 (-71)
153. Jessica B.: 57 (-71)
156. Howard S. #1: 57 (-103)
157. Justin L.: 56 (-40)
158. Matt N.: 56 (-48)
158. Becky H.: 56 (-48)
160. Chun W. #1: 56 (-56)
160. Missy W. #2: 56 (-56)
162. Andrew D. #1: 56 (-64)
162. John B.: 56 (-64)
164. Taima B. #1: 56 (-72)
165. Daisy N. #5: 56 (-80)
166. Kansas C.: 56 (-96)
167. Sue L.: 56 (-104)
168. Brad R.: 55 (-49)
169. Dustin B.: 55 (-57)
170. Michelle L. #4: 55 (-65)
170. Peter J. #5: 55 (-65)
172. Irene H. #1: 55 (-73)
172. John M. #2: 55 (-73)
174. Tomas L. #2: 55 (-81)
175. Dylan B.: 55 (-113)
175. William G. #4: 55 (-113)
177. Jack Q. #2: 55 (-129)
178. Adam E.: 54 (-42)
178. Roth W.: 54 (-42)
180. Ray R.: 54 (-50)
181. Brian G. #1: 54 (-66)
182. Jay H. #1: 54 (-106)
183. Virginia L. #1: 53 (-51)
184. Chris La. #4: 53 (-75)
185. James R.: 53 (-107)
186. Marissa W. #2: 53 (-115)
187. Hutch H. #3: 53 (-131)
188. Ben J. #3: 52 (-52)
189. Daisy N. #3: 52 (-132)
190. Joe K. #1: 51 (-69)
191. Marc R.: 51 (-109)
192. Ben J. #4: 50 (-78)
193. John M. #3: 50 (-126)
194. Scott K. #1: 49 (-79)
194. Peter J. #1: 49 (-79)
196. William G. #2: 49 (-87)
197. Marissa W. #3: 49 (-135)
198. Mason A. #2: 48 (-56)
199. Jeff W.: 48 (-80)
200. Jay H. #2: 46 (-90)
201. Tim N.: 45 (-83)
202. Brian G. #2: 44 (-124)
203. Christy K. #2: 43 (-117)
204. Jack Q. #1: 40 (-152)
205. Sally R.: 28 (-108)
206. Jonathan O.: 24 (-168)

Sadly, the loss for Utah gave us our second person who has completed their points for the tournament:  Jonathan O.  You're bracket will not soon be forgotten.  It was a beautiful statistics test case.  Better luck next time....

There are 2 games tomorrow, and I think from here on out we need to whittle 72 brackets down to 4, so there's going to be much carnage.  I think that from here on out, you probably need to win every one of the last 7 games to win this thing.  Someone will do it.  There has to be a winner after all.

Here are the single game eliminations for tomorrow:

If Notre Dame Loses:
Ben J. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Bobby H. is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Chad L. #3 is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chris La. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Chris Lu. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Christy K. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Chun W. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Damian M. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Dan S. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Daryl J. is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Eric V. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Joe K. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Jonathan M. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Julie S. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Mark N. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Michelle R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Missy W. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Rich F. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Steve D. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Todd K. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Kentucky loses:
Alyssa B. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 4th place contention.
Angie B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
April K. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Ben J. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Bhav R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Brandon H. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Brent E. #4 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Brent S. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Carl B. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Chad L. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chris La. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Chris La. #3 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Christy K. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Chun W. #3 is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chun W. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Daisy N. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Dan D. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Daryl J. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Eric V. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention.
Eric V. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
James G. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Jay K. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Jim D. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Jim K. is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Jim W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Joe K. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Joe K. #3 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Joe R. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Jonathan M. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Kirt R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Kye G. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Kye G. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Larry G. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Larry G. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Michelle L. #3 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Mike S. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Rich F. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Rich F. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Ryan W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Scott K. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Scottt #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.
Scottt #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Steve H. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Steve K. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Todd K. #3 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Tomas L. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Veronica A. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
If Wisconsin loses:
Alyssa B. is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.
April K. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Bhav R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Bobby H. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Brent S. #3 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chad L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Chad L. #3 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chris La. #3 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chris Lu. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Christy K. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chun W. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Daisy N. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Daisy N. #4 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.
Dan S. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Dennis R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Irene H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Jay K. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Joe K. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Joe R. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Kirt R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Kye G. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Larry G. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Marissa W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Mark N. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 4th place contention.
Michelle R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Mike S. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Rich F. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Ryan W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Steve D. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Steve K. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Todd K. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Todd K. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Veronica A. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.


If Arizona loses:
Alyssa B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Angie B. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Ben J. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Brandon H. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Brent E. #4 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chad L. #3 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Chris La. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chun W. #3 is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Chun W. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Daisy N. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Daisy N. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Damian M. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Dan D. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Eric V. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention.
Eric V. #3 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
James G. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Jim D. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Jim K. is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Jim W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.
Joe K. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.
Joe K. #3 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Jonathan M. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Julie S. is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Kye G. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Larry G. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Luis B. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Michelle L. #3 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Michelle R. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Mike W. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Missy W. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Rich F. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Scott K. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.
Scottt #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Scottt #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.
Steve H. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Todd K. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Todd K. #4 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

So, it looks like Wisconsin / Arizona has all the makings of a bloodbath.  That makes sense, since almost everyone left has a stake in who wins the game, it's worth 8 points and there isn't a ton of separation between all brackets that are still alive.  It has the added benefit of being a pretty good game on paper.  Let's hope it actually turns out that way.

One last thing I noticed today.  I wanted to thank Szecho L. for inviting me out for a beer during the first two games of the night.  Even though his UCLA team didn't win, he did manage to go 4/4 and move up from 105th in points to 15th.  I'd like to say that it's just a coincidence that he bought me a beer and he happened to get all four games right on the same day, but it's hard to refute such overwhelming karmic evidence.  I appreciated the invite and the beer.  Thanks a lot!

Good luck to everyone still alive.  Like they used to say on MXC --  "Don't Get Eliminated!!!"
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