Monday, March 20, 2017

3rd place probabilities



Good evening.  I was able to calculate the probabilities of getting 3rd place.  Like 1st and 2nd, I will start with the people that are mathematically eliminated from getting 3rd:

Adam S. #1
Adam S. #2
Allie I.
April K.
Arianna S.
Brent E. #2
Brent S. #1
Brent S. #2
Chad L. #2
Chad L. #3
Chris M.
Craig G.
Daisy N. #12
Daisy N. #5
Daisy N. #7
Daisy N. #8
Dennis R. #1
Eleanor
Emily W.
Eric R. #1
Hal R. #2
Howard S. #1
Howard S. #2
Irene H. #4
Irene H. #5
Jack K. #4
Jaxon S.
Jay H. #1
Jill M. #1
Jill M. #2
Jim D. #1
Jim D. #2
Jim D. #3
Jim D. #4
Joe D. #2
John M. #2
Josh D.
Kansas C. #4
Karen C.
Kevin F. #3
Kiah H.
Klei R.
Larry G. #1
Larry G. #4
Luis B. #2
Michelle L. #1
Michelle L. #2
Michelle L. #4
Mike McQ. #2
Mike W.
Missy W. #2
Nathan R.
Pete J. #1
Pete J. #4
Presley J.
Ray W. #3
Riley Y.
Ron V. #2
Roth W. #1
Roth W. #3
Roth W. #4
Scott H. #1
Seth D.
Stefan K.
Szecho L. #1
Taima B.
Tim N.
Wayne D. #2


....and here are the probabilities:

1. Brent E. #4 (3.2875%)
2. Michelle D. (3.2824%)
3. Irene H. #2 (3.2652%)
4. Kansas C. #3 (3.1794%)
5. Irene H. #3 (2.682%)
6. Dan Dz. (2.5019%)
7. Brad E. (2.4597%)
8. Sanjay T. (2.2403%)
9. Paul R. #1 (2.1591%)
10. Mike C. #1 (2.1543%)
11. Daisy N. #11 (1.9716%)
12. Dan D. #2 (1.8772%)
13. Kevin F. #1 (1.8671%)
14. Kirt R. #1 (1.8666%)
15. Ashley D. (1.6481%)
16. Zach V. (1.5772%)
17. Kirt R. #2 (1.5524%)
18. Paul R. #2 (1.5131%)
19. Dan D. #1 (1.4325%)
20. Julie S. (1.3977%)
21. Ron KY (1.3778%)
22. Todd K. #1 (1.2695%)
23. Mindi W. (1.2649%)
24. Bosun S. (1.2603%)
25. Hal R. #1 (1.2296%)
26. Scott K. #2 (1.2166%)
27. Larry G. #3 (1.198%)
28. Josh C. (1.1953%)
29. Taylor F. (1.185%)
30. Daisy N. #9 (1.1685%)
31. Alex N. #1 (1.1589%)
32. Jon F. (1.152%)
33. Eric V. (1.1222%)
34. Brian K. (1.0851%)
35. Cool Guy (1.0715%)
36. Pete J. #3 (1.0378%)
37. Jay H. #2 (0.9476%)
38. Irene H. #1 (0.9376%)
39. Jack K. #2 (0.9284%)
40. Pete J. #6 (0.888%)
41. Carrie F. (0.8621%)
42. Ben J. #1 (0.8392%)
43. Alyssa B. (0.7934%)
44. Michelle R. (0.7847%)
45. Ryan S. (0.7802%)
46. Damien R. #3 (0.7789%)
47. Adam E. (0.712%)
48. Ally H. (0.7096%)
49. Chris T. #3 (0.7017%)
50. Matt M. (0.6912%)
51. Josh S. #2 (0.6846%)
52. Joe D. #1 (0.6825%)
53. Ron V. #1 (0.6805%)
54. David S. (0.6785%)
55. Dennis R. #2 (0.6698%)
56. Tim's Stepson (0.6647%)
57. Ben J. #4 (0.653%)
58. Jim W. (0.6121%)
59. Kansas C. #1 (0.6101%)
60. Howard S. #3 (0.6022%)
61. Ben S. #1 (0.5853%)
62. Larry G. #2 (0.5593%)
63. Ray W. #1 (0.5432%)
64. Brett K. #1 (0.5249%)
65. Roth W. #2 (0.513%)
66. Joel B. #1 (0.5076%)
67. Missy W. #1 (0.4749%)
68. Mike C. #2 (0.4624%)
69. John E. #2 (0.4594%)
70. Hal R. #3 (0.4582%)
71. Brayden R. (0.414%)
71. Chris T. #1 (0.414%)
73. Mike S. #2 (0.3906%)
74. Jax I. (0.3873%)
75. Luis B. #3 (0.3662%)
76. Ben J. #3 (0.3545%)
77. Kansas C. #2 (0.3514%)
78. John E. #1 (0.3372%)
79. Becky H. (0.326%)
80. Brad R. (0.3107%)
81. Daisy N. #10 (0.3092%)
82. Rob I. (0.3061%)
83. Dan S. (0.3017%)
84. Chrissy I. (0.2929%)
84. Mike S. #1 (0.2929%)
86. Joel B. #2 (0.2919%)
87. Wayne D. #1 (0.2901%)
88. Ben J. #5 (0.2899%)
89. James R. (0.2819%)
90. Dustin B. #1 (0.2662%)
91. John M. #1 (0.2655%)
92. Ben S. #2 (0.2639%)
93. Mike McQ. #1 (0.2548%)
93. Szecho L. #2 (0.2548%)
95. Marc R. (0.2465%)
96. Pete J. #5 (0.2441%)
97. Alex N. #2 (0.237%)
98. James G. #2 (0.2248%)
99. Matt N. (0.2097%)
100. Jay H. #3 (0.2075%)
101. Joe D. #3 (0.2014%)
102. Daisy N. #2 (0.1953%)
103. Chris T. #2 (0.1949%)
104. Missy W. #3 (0.1937%)
105. Gutless Jack (0.1825%)
106. Scott H. #2 (0.1779%)
107. Jim K. (0.1647%)
108. Brandon H. (0.1617%)
109. Michelle L. #5 (0.1571%)
110. Jeff S. (0.1536%)
111. Luis B. #1 (0.1495%)
112. Ken P. (0.1464%)
113. Dylan B. (0.1459%)
114. Jack K. #1 (0.1419%)
115. Josh S. #1 (0.1358%)
116. Cory W. (0.1281%)
117. Daisy N. #6 (0.1251%)
118. Alex N. #3 (0.1248%)
119. Kyle V. (0.1174%)
120. Chris L. #1 (0.1152%)
121. Brent E. #1 (0.1108%)
122. Hutch H. #1 (0.1093%)
123. Jana T. (0.1049%)
124. Ava S. (0.0974%)
125. Daisy N. #4 (0.0951%)
126. Brett K. #2 (0.093%)
127. Todd K. #2 (0.092%)
128. Chad L. #1 (0.0877%)
129. Ray W. #2 (0.0869%)
130. Daisy N. #3 (0.0762%)
130. Richard Z. (0.0762%)
132. Luis B. #4 (0.0732%)
133. Brent E. #3 (0.0668%)
134. Ben J. #2 (0.0625%)
135. Scott K. #1 (0.061%)
136. Gigi I. (0.0569%)
137. Hutch H. #2 (0.0564%)
138. Damien R. #2 (0.0549%)
139. Dustin B. #2 (0.0488%)
139. Michelle L. #3 (0.0488%)
141. Barack O. (0.0473%)
142. Elizabeth N. (0.0388%)
143. James G. #1 (0.0366%)
143. Joshua R. (0.0366%)
143. Molly R. (0.0366%)
146. Luis B. #5 (0.0347%)
147. Brett W. (0.0284%)
148. Chris L. #2 (0.0282%)
148. Chris L. #3 (0.0282%)
150. Pete J. #2 (0.0274%)
151. Eric R. #2 (0.025%)
152. Daisy N. #1 (0.0244%)
153. Kevin F. #2 (0.0198%)
154. Bella S. (0.0195%)
155. Damien R. #1 (0.0122%)
156. Alyssa N. (0.003%)
157. Scott Has. (0.0022%)


I'll be back later with the 4th place probabilities.  Good luck to everyone!!!!

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