4/4 Chalk edition.

Well, my dream of a #16 seed knocking off a #1 seed will have to wait until later today to come true.  Gonzaga slowly pulled away to win by about 20.  Butler more or less crushed Winthrop, amounting for a very ho hum set of games.  At least the games going on right now seem to be pretty good.  ETSU and Bucknell are hanging with Florida and West Virginia.  C'mon guys!!!  We need some upsets!!!  The favorites are 4/4 so far, and what that means is that there is a 152-way tie for 1st place.  That's way too many people in a tie for 1st.  I think we have some games that will whittle that down in the next set, but I'm keeping hope alive that we can get some more upsets.  About 1/4 would be a good ratio for me....

Anyway, here are the updated standings:

1. Adam E.: 4 (0)

1. Adam S. #1: 4 (0)

1. Adam S. #2: 4 (0)

1. Alex N. #1: 4 (0)

1. Alex N. #2: 4 (0)

1. Alex N. #3: 4 (0)

1. Alyssa B.: 4 (0)

1. Alyssa N.: 4 (0)

1. April K.: 4 (0)

1. Arianna S.: 4 (0)

1. Ashley D.: 4 (0)

1. Ava S.: 4 (0)

1. Barack O.: 4 (0)

1. Becky H.: 4 (0)

1. Bella S.: 4 (0)

1. Ben J. #1: 4 (0)

1. Ben J. #2: 4 (0)

1. Ben J. #3: 4 (0)

1. Ben J. #5: 4 (0)

1. Ben S.: 4 (0)

1. Bosun S.: 4 (0)

1. Brad E.: 4 (0)

1. Brad R.: 4 (0)

1. Brayden R.: 4 (0)

1. Brent E. #1: 4 (0)

1. Brent E. #2: 4 (0)

1. Brent E. #3: 4 (0)

1. Brent E. #4: 4 (0)

1. Brett K. #2: 4 (0)

1. Brett W.: 4 (0)

1. Brian K.: 4 (0)

1. Chad L. #2: 4 (0)

1. Chad L. #3: 4 (0)

1. Chris L. #1: 4 (0)

1. Chris L. #2: 4 (0)

1. Chris L. #3: 4 (0)

1. Chris M.: 4 (0)

1. Chris T. #1: 4 (0)

1. Chris T. #2: 4 (0)

1. Chris T. #3: 4 (0)

1. Chrissy I.: 4 (0)

1. Cory W.: 4 (0)

1. Craig G.: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #1: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #10: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #11: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #12: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #2: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #3: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #4: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #5: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #6: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #7: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #8: 4 (0)

1. Daisy N. #9: 4 (0)

1. Damien R. #3: 4 (0)

1. Dan D.: 4 (0)

1. Dan S.: 4 (0)

1. David S.: 4 (0)

1. Dennis R. #1: 4 (0)

1. Dennis R. #2: 4 (0)

1. Dustin B. #2: 4 (0)

1. Dylan B.: 4 (0)

1. Eric R. #1: 4 (0)

1. Eric V.: 4 (0)

1. Gigi I.: 4 (0)

1. Gutless Jack: 4 (0)

1. Hal R. #1: 4 (0)

1. Howard S. #1: 4 (0)

1. Howard S. #2: 4 (0)

1. Howard S. #3: 4 (0)

1. Hutch H. #1: 4 (0)

1. Hutch H. #2: 4 (0)

1. Irene H. #1: 4 (0)

1. Irene H. #3: 4 (0)

1. Jack K. #1: 4 (0)

1. Jack K. #2: 4 (0)

1. James G. #1: 4 (0)

1. James G. #2: 4 (0)

1. James R.: 4 (0)

1. Jana T.: 4 (0)

1. Jaxon S.: 4 (0)

1. Jay H. #2: 4 (0)

1. Jeff S.: 4 (0)

1. Jill M. #2: 4 (0)

1. Jim D. #2: 4 (0)

1. Jim W.: 4 (0)

1. Joe D. #1: 4 (0)

1. Joe D. #3: 4 (0)

1. Joel B. #2: 4 (0)

1. John M. #1: 4 (0)

1. John M. #2: 4 (0)

1. Josh C.: 4 (0)

1. Josh D.: 4 (0)

1. Josh S. #2: 4 (0)

1. Julie S.: 4 (0)

1. Kansas C. #1: 4 (0)

1. Kansas C. #2: 4 (0)

1. Kansas C. #3: 4 (0)

1. Kansas C. #4: 4 (0)

1. Ken P.: 4 (0)

1. Kevin F. #1: 4 (0)

1. Kiah H.: 4 (0)

1. Kirt R. #1: 4 (0)

1. Klei R.: 4 (0)

1. Kyle V.: 4 (0)

1. Luis B. #1: 4 (0)

1. Luis B. #2: 4 (0)

1. Luis B. #3: 4 (0)

1. Luis B. #4: 4 (0)

1. Luis B. #5: 4 (0)

1. Marc R.: 4 (0)

1. Matt M.: 4 (0)

1. Matt N.: 4 (0)

1. Michelle L. #3: 4 (0)

1. Michelle R.: 4 (0)

1. Mike C. #1: 4 (0)

1. Mike C. #2: 4 (0)

1. Mike McQ. #1: 4 (0)

1. Mike McQ. #2: 4 (0)

1. Mike S. #1: 4 (0)

1. Mindi W.: 4 (0)

1. Missy W. #3: 4 (0)

1. Nathan R.: 4 (0)

1. Paul R. #1: 4 (0)

1. Paul R. #2: 4 (0)

1. Pete J. #2: 4 (0)

1. Pete J. #4: 4 (0)

1. Pete J. #5: 4 (0)

1. Presley J.: 4 (0)

1. Ray W. #1: 4 (0)

1. Ray W. #3: 4 (0)

1. Richard Z.: 4 (0)

1. Rob I.: 4 (0)

1. Ron KY: 4 (0)

1. Ron V. #1: 4 (0)

1. Ron V. #2: 4 (0)

1. Roth W. #2: 4 (0)

1. Roth W. #3: 4 (0)

1. Roth W. #4: 4 (0)

1. Sanjay T.: 4 (0)

1. Seth D.: 4 (0)

1. Stefan K.: 4 (0)

1. Szecho L. #1: 4 (0)

1. Szecho L. #2: 4 (0)

1. Taima B.: 4 (0)

1. Taylor F.: 4 (0)

1. Tim's Stepson: 4 (0)

1. Todd K. #2: 4 (0)

1. Wayne D. #1: 4 (0)

1. Wayne D. #2: 4 (0)

1. Zach V.: 4 (0)

153. Ben J. #4: 3 (-1)

153. Brent S. #2: 3 (-1)

153. Cool Guy: 3 (-1)

153. Dan D. #1: 3 (-1)

153. Dustin B. #1: 3 (-1)

153. Elizabeth N.: 3 (-1)

153. Hal R. #2: 3 (-1)

153. Hal R. #3: 3 (-1)

153. Irene H. #4: 3 (-1)

153. Jax I.: 3 (-1)

153. Jim D. #1: 3 (-1)

153. Jim D. #3: 3 (-1)

153. Jim D. #4: 3 (-1)

153. Joe D. #2: 3 (-1)

153. Joel B. #1: 3 (-1)

153. John E. #1: 3 (-1)

153. John E. #2: 3 (-1)

153. Jon F.: 3 (-1)

153. Josh S. #1: 3 (-1)

153. Karen C.: 3 (-1)

153. Kirt R. #2: 3 (-1)

153. Larry G. #2: 3 (-1)

153. Larry G. #3: 3 (-1)

153. Michelle D.: 3 (-1)

153. Mike S. #2: 3 (-1)

153. Mike W.: 3 (-1)

153. Missy W. #1: 3 (-1)

153. Molly R.: 3 (-1)

153. Pete J. #3: 3 (-1)

153. Riley Y.: 3 (-1)

153. Scott K. #2: 3 (-1)

153. Todd K. #1: 3 (-1)

185. Ally H.: 3 (-3)

185. Brandon H.: 3 (-3)

185. Brent S. #1: 3 (-3)

185. Carrie F.: 3 (-3)

185. Chad L. #1: 3 (-3)

185. Damien R. #2: 3 (-3)

185. Dan D. #2: 3 (-3)

185. Eric R. #2: 3 (-3)

185. Jay H. #1: 3 (-3)

185. Kevin F. #3: 3 (-3)

185. Larry G. #1: 3 (-3)

185. Larry G. #4: 3 (-3)

185. Michelle L. #1: 3 (-3)

185. Michelle L. #2: 3 (-3)

185. Michelle L. #4: 3 (-3)

185. Ryan S.: 3 (-3)

185. Scott H. #1: 3 (-3)

185. Scott H. #2: 3 (-3)

185. Scott Has.: 3 (-3)

185. Scott K. #1: 3 (-3)

205. Ray W. #2: 3 (-7)

206. Irene H. #2: 2 (-2)

206. Jay H. #3: 2 (-2)

206. Kevin F. #2: 2 (-2)

206. Michelle L. #5: 2 (-2)

206. Pete J. #1: 2 (-2)

211. Allie I.: 2 (-4)

211. Brett K. #1: 2 (-4)

211. Damien R. #1: 2 (-4)

211. Eleanor: 2 (-4)

211. Emily W.: 2 (-4)

211. Irene H. #5: 2 (-4)

211. Jill M. #1: 2 (-4)

211. Jim K.: 2 (-4)

211. Pete J. #6: 2 (-4)

211. Roth W. #1: 2 (-4)

211. Tim N.: 2 (-4)

222. Joshua R.: 2 (-8)

223. Jack K. #4: 1 (-5)

223. Missy W. #2: 1 (-5)

...and the net points rankings (virtually unchanged from last time):

1. Adam E. (4)

1. Adam S. #1 (4)

1. Adam S. #2 (4)

1. Alex N. #1 (4)

1. Alex N. #2 (4)

1. Alex N. #3 (4)

1. Alyssa B. (4)

1. Alyssa N. (4)

1. April K. (4)

1. Arianna S. (4)

1. Ashley D. (4)

1. Ava S. (4)

1. Barack O. (4)

1. Becky H. (4)

1. Bella S. (4)

1. Ben J. #1 (4)

1. Ben J. #2 (4)

1. Ben J. #3 (4)

1. Ben J. #5 (4)

1. Ben S. (4)

1. Bosun S. (4)

1. Brad E. (4)

1. Brad R. (4)

1. Brayden R. (4)

1. Brent E. #1 (4)

1. Brent E. #2 (4)

1. Brent E. #3 (4)

1. Brent E. #4 (4)

1. Brett K. #2 (4)

1. Brett W. (4)

1. Brian K. (4)

1. Chad L. #2 (4)

1. Chad L. #3 (4)

1. Chris L. #1 (4)

1. Chris L. #2 (4)

1. Chris L. #3 (4)

1. Chris M. (4)

1. Chris T. #1 (4)

1. Chris T. #2 (4)

1. Chris T. #3 (4)

1. Chrissy I. (4)

1. Cory W. (4)

1. Craig G. (4)

1. Daisy N. #1 (4)

1. Daisy N. #10 (4)

1. Daisy N. #11 (4)

1. Daisy N. #12 (4)

1. Daisy N. #2 (4)

1. Daisy N. #3 (4)

1. Daisy N. #4 (4)

1. Daisy N. #5 (4)

1. Daisy N. #6 (4)

1. Daisy N. #7 (4)

1. Daisy N. #8 (4)

1. Daisy N. #9 (4)

1. Damien R. #3 (4)

1. Dan D. (4)

1. Dan S. (4)

1. David S. (4)

1. Dennis R. #1 (4)

1. Dennis R. #2 (4)

1. Dustin B. #2 (4)

1. Dylan B. (4)

1. Eric R. #1 (4)

1. Eric V. (4)

1. Gigi I. (4)

1. Gutless Jack (4)

1. Hal R. #1 (4)

1. Howard S. #1 (4)

1. Howard S. #2 (4)

1. Howard S. #3 (4)

1. Hutch H. #1 (4)

1. Hutch H. #2 (4)

1. Irene H. #1 (4)

1. Irene H. #3 (4)

1. Jack K. #1 (4)

1. Jack K. #2 (4)

1. James G. #1 (4)

1. James G. #2 (4)

1. James R. (4)

1. Jana T. (4)

1. Jaxon S. (4)

1. Jay H. #2 (4)

1. Jeff S. (4)

1. Jill M. #2 (4)

1. Jim D. #2 (4)

1. Jim W. (4)

1. Joe D. #1 (4)

1. Joe D. #3 (4)

1. Joel B. #2 (4)

1. John M. #1 (4)

1. John M. #2 (4)

1. Josh C. (4)

1. Josh D. (4)

1. Josh S. #2 (4)

1. Julie S. (4)

1. Kansas C. #1 (4)

1. Kansas C. #2 (4)

1. Kansas C. #3 (4)

1. Kansas C. #4 (4)

1. Ken P. (4)

1. Kevin F. #1 (4)

1. Kiah H. (4)

1. Kirt R. #1 (4)

1. Klei R. (4)

1. Kyle V. (4)

1. Luis B. #1 (4)

1. Luis B. #2 (4)

1. Luis B. #3 (4)

1. Luis B. #4 (4)

1. Luis B. #5 (4)

1. Marc R. (4)

1. Matt M. (4)

1. Matt N. (4)

1. Michelle L. #3 (4)

1. Michelle R. (4)

1. Mike C. #1 (4)

1. Mike C. #2 (4)

1. Mike McQ. #1 (4)

1. Mike McQ. #2 (4)

1. Mike S. #1 (4)

1. Mindi W. (4)

1. Missy W. #3 (4)

1. Nathan R. (4)

1. Paul R. #1 (4)

1. Paul R. #2 (4)

1. Pete J. #2 (4)

1. Pete J. #4 (4)

1. Pete J. #5 (4)

1. Presley J. (4)

1. Ray W. #1 (4)

1. Ray W. #3 (4)

1. Richard Z. (4)

1. Rob I. (4)

1. Ron KY (4)

1. Ron V. #1 (4)

1. Ron V. #2 (4)

1. Roth W. #2 (4)

1. Roth W. #3 (4)

1. Roth W. #4 (4)

1. Sanjay T. (4)

1. Seth D. (4)

1. Stefan K. (4)

1. Szecho L. #1 (4)

1. Szecho L. #2 (4)

1. Taima B. (4)

1. Taylor F. (4)

1. Tim's Stepson (4)

1. Todd K. #2 (4)

1. Wayne D. #1 (4)

1. Wayne D. #2 (4)

1. Zach V. (4)

153. Ben J. #4 (2)

153. Brent S. #2 (2)

153. Cool Guy (2)

153. Dan D. #1 (2)

153. Dustin B. #1 (2)

153. Elizabeth N. (2)

153. Hal R. #2 (2)

153. Hal R. #3 (2)

153. Irene H. #4 (2)

153. Jax I. (2)

153. Jim D. #1 (2)

153. Jim D. #3 (2)

153. Jim D. #4 (2)

153. Joe D. #2 (2)

153. Joel B. #1 (2)

153. John E. #1 (2)

153. John E. #2 (2)

153. Jon F. (2)

153. Josh S. #1 (2)

153. Karen C. (2)

153. Kirt R. #2 (2)

153. Larry G. #2 (2)

153. Larry G. #3 (2)

153. Michelle D. (2)

153. Mike S. #2 (2)

153. Mike W. (2)

153. Missy W. #1 (2)

153. Molly R. (2)

153. Pete J. #3 (2)

153. Riley Y. (2)

153. Scott K. #2 (2)

153. Todd K. #1 (2)

185. Ally H. (0)

185. Brandon H. (0)

185. Brent S. #1 (0)

185. Carrie F. (0)

185. Chad L. #1 (0)

185. Damien R. #2 (0)

185. Dan D. #2 (0)

185. Eric R. #2 (0)

185. Irene H. #2 (0)

185. Jay H. #1 (0)

185. Jay H. #3 (0)

185. Kevin F. #2 (0)

185. Kevin F. #3 (0)

185. Larry G. #1 (0)

185. Larry G. #4 (0)

185. Michelle L. #1 (0)

185. Michelle L. #2 (0)

185. Michelle L. #4 (0)

185. Michelle L. #5 (0)

185. Pete J. #1 (0)

185. Ryan S. (0)

185. Scott H. #1 (0)

185. Scott H. #2 (0)

185. Scott Has. (0)

185. Scott K. #1 (0)

210. Allie I. (-2)

210. Brett K. #1 (-2)

210. Damien R. #1 (-2)

210. Eleanor (-2)

210. Emily W. (-2)

210. Irene H. #5 (-2)

210. Jill M. #1 (-2)

210. Jim K. (-2)

210. Pete J. #6 (-2)

210. Roth W. #1 (-2)

210. Tim N. (-2)

221. Jack K. #4 (-4)

221. Missy W. #2 (-4)

221. Ray W. #2 (-4)

224. Joshua R. (-6)

The next set of games will hopefully start to peel some people out of the realm of the undefeated.  I think in the grand scheme of things, these games don't mean a lot, since they are only worth 1 point, and most people don't have the winner going very far after this game anyway, but when there are so many people in the pool and a lot of people have very similar picks in the out rounds, these games amount to tie-breakers.  So, if you picked something Villanova / Kansas in the finals, you probably need to win these games more than someone that picked Florida State or Louisville in the Finals.

The 2 games that round out the early games on Day 1 are Minnesota / Middle Tennessee State and Northwestern / Vanderbilt.

Here are the picks:

Middle Tennessee State: 120

Minnesota: 104

VegasLine:  MTSU by 1.5

It's pretty uncommon for a #12 seed to be favored over the #5 seed, but that's exactly what we have here.  I think that there are probably a lot of people pretty proud of themselves for having the foresight to pick MTSU over a #5 seed, but it looks like our distribution really just mirrors the line in general.  So good job picking a 12 seed, but this game looks a lot more like an 8/9 game in reality, and nobody would feel particularly clever picking a 9 over an 8.

Speaking of which, our first 8/9 game is up next.  Here's the distribution:

Northwestern: 117

Vanderbilt: 107

Vegas line: Vanderbilt for 2.5

Pretty close range here, as you would expect from an 8/9 game.  Northwestern is probably the feel good story of the tournament, as this is the first time they've made the tournament in school history.  Good job to them.  Now I hope they lose because I picked the Commodores.

Just for fun, I was looking at the various regions.  There is almost always one region that is an absolute disaster, like the region that produced Syracuse last year.  I don't know where that region is this time around, but I was thinking that looking at the Sweet 16 teams in the regions might tell us where people think it will be.  I looked at the percentage of sheets that took the 1-4 seeds in the Sweet 16 in the various regions.

Here's what it looks like:

East: 19.64% of brackets have 1-4 in the Sweet 16

West: 21.31% of brackets have 1-4.

Midwest: 24.55%

South: 45.54%

Wow, the South seems really chalky according to most people.  That would be a Sweet 16 of North Carolina / Butler / UCLA / Kentucky.  Maybe that means that the East will be the pandemonium region.  That would be cool because I hate Duke.  They can lose.  I want to see Troy be the second coming of Lehigh...  That would make the rest of the tournament gravy.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!