Initial Odds for 1st place

We finally made it to my favorite part of the tournament.  The Most Extreme Elimination Challenge.  This is where points are a little less important, and making sure your bracket is still alive is more important.

The fun part is figuring out who is still actually still alive.  I've already figured out who can and can't get first place.  For those that are new to this process, I assume that all outcomes from here on out are equally likely .  That means that a Kansas / Gonzaga finals is equally likely as a South Carolina / Michigan final.  We all know that's not true, but for the purposes of my math, they are.  From there, I calculate how many of the different scenarios result a respective bracket finishing in 1st (or a tie for 1st).

Let's start with the dearly departed brackets.  These brackets can no longer win 1st place under any circumstances:

Adam S. #1

Adam S. #2

Allie I.

Alyssa N.

April K.

Arianna S.

Ava S.

Barack O.

Becky H.

Bella S.

Ben J. #2

Ben S. #2

Brent E. #2

Brent S. #1

Brent S. #2

Brett K. #1

Brett K. #2

Brett W.

Chad L. #1

Chad L. #2

Chad L. #3

Chris M.

Craig G.

Daisy N. #1

Daisy N. #12

Daisy N. #2

Daisy N. #3

Daisy N. #5

Daisy N. #7

Daisy N. #8

Damien R. #1

Dennis R. #1

Dustin B. #2

Eleanor

Emily W.

Eric R. #1

Eric R. #2

Hal R. #2

Howard S. #1

Howard S. #2

Hutch H. #1

Irene H. #4

Irene H. #5

Jack K. #1

Jack K. #2

Jack K. #4

James G. #1

James G. #2

Jaxon S.

Jay H. #1

Jay H. #3

Jill M. #1

Jill M. #2

Jim D. #1

Jim D. #2

Jim D. #3

Jim D. #4

Jim K.

Joe D. #2

Joel B. #1

Joel B. #2

John E. #1

John M. #1

John M. #2

Josh D.

Joshua R.

Kansas C. #4

Karen C.

Ken P.

Kevin F. #2

Kevin F. #3

Kiah H.

Klei R.

Larry G. #1

Larry G. #4

Luis B. #2

Luis B. #3

Luis B. #4

Luis B. #5

Michelle L. #1

Michelle L. #2

Michelle L. #3

Michelle L. #4

Michelle L. #5

Mike McQ. #2

Mike S. #2

Mike W.

Missy W. #2

Molly R.

Nathan R.

Pete J. #1

Pete J. #2

Pete J. #4

Presley J.

Ray W. #1

Ray W. #3

Riley Y.

Ron V. #2

Roth W. #1

Roth W. #3

Roth W. #4

Scott H. #1

Scott Has.

Scott K. #1

Seth D.

Stefan K.

Szecho L. #1

Szecho L. #2

Taima B.

Tim N.

Todd K. #2

Wayne D. #2

You may be alive for 2nd, 3rd or 4th, so don't give up hope.  You just can't win it all.

Without any further ado, here are the probabilities of winning the pool, assuming every game is a 50/50 toss up:

1. Daisy N. #9 (7.4467%)

2. Ally H. (7.2445%)

3. Brent E. #4 (6.3911%)

4. Bosun S. (6.3018%)

5. Howard S. #3 (5.9829%)

6. Brad E. (4.632%)

7. Dan Dz. (3.9947%)

8. Kansas C. #3 (3.9138%)

9. Julie S. (3.7063%)

10. Paul R. #2 (3.1188%)

11. Paul R. #1 (2.6901%)

12. Irene H. #2 (2.3511%)

13. Irene H. #3 (2.182%)

14. Larry G. #3 (2.007%)

15. Sanjay T. (1.7735%)

16. Kevin F. #1 (1.5589%)

17. Mike C. #1 (1.552%)

18. Kirt R. #1 (1.4409%)

19. Hal R. #1 (1.3809%)

20. Daisy N. #11 (1.212%)

21. Zach V. (1.1383%)

22. Cool Guy (1.1199%)

23. Dan D. #1 (1.1077%)

23. Kirt R. #2 (1.1077%)

25. Michelle D. (1.0284%)

26. Scott K. #2 (1.0009%)

27. Josh C. (0.826%)

28. Pete J. #3 (0.8153%)

29. Jon F. (0.7893%)

30. Alyssa B. (0.7324%)

30. Matt N. (0.7324%)

32. Pete J. #6 (0.7095%)

33. Jay H. #2 (0.679%)

34. Ron KY (0.6754%)

35. Ryan S. (0.6713%)

36. Ben J. #1 (0.65%)

37. Ashley D. (0.6286%)

38. Pete J. #5 (0.5859%)

39. Todd K. #1 (0.5747%)

40. Kansas C. #1 (0.5658%)

41. Chris T. #3 (0.5017%)

42. Alex N. #2 (0.5004%)

43. Damien R. #3 (0.4689%)

44. Mike C. #2 (0.4623%)

45. Mindi W. (0.4577%)

46. Michelle R. (0.4328%)

47. Hal R. #3 (0.3906%)

47. Marc R. (0.3906%)

49. Irene H. #1 (0.3707%)

50. David S. (0.3479%)

50. Jim W. (0.3479%)

50. Josh S. #2 (0.3479%)

53. Eric V. (0.325%)

54. Ben J. #4 (0.3173%)

55. Dan D. #2 (0.3046%)

56. Alex N. #1 (0.299%)

57. Brian K. (0.2883%)

58. Missy W. #1 (0.2756%)

59. Ben S. #1 (0.2599%)

60. John E. #2 (0.2468%)

61. Carrie F. (0.2421%)

62. Mike S. #1 (0.2319%)

63. Dennis R. #2 (0.2237%)

64. Ben J. #5 (0.2197%)

65. Kansas C. #2 (0.2136%)

66. Matt M. (0.2105%)

67. Joe D. #1 (0.2044%)

68. Adam E. (0.1973%)

69. Richard Z. (0.1892%)

70. Tim's Stepson (0.1876%)

71. Jeff S. (0.177%)

72. Gutless Jack (0.1729%)

73. Brandon H. (0.1708%)

74. Ron V. #1 (0.1663%)

75. Daisy N. #10 (0.1647%)

76. Wayne D. #1 (0.1637%)

77. Jax I. (0.1602%)

78. Luis B. #1 (0.1592%)

79. Dan S. (0.1428%)

80. Brayden R. (0.1424%)

80. Chris T. #1 (0.1424%)

82. Larry G. #2 (0.1378%)

83. Roth W. #2 (0.1375%)

84. Taylor F. (0.1312%)

85. Cory W. (0.1271%)

86. Josh S. #1 (0.1251%)

87. Joe D. #3 (0.1129%)

88. Rob I. (0.0935%)

89. Ben J. #3 (0.0854%)

89. Chrissy I. (0.0854%)

91. Chris T. #2 (0.0823%)

92. Dustin B. #1 (0.0727%)

93. Missy W. #3 (0.0696%)

94. Brent E. #1 (0.0671%)

95. Daisy N. #6 (0.0488%)

96. Gigi I. (0.0457%)

97. Brad R. (0.0396%)

98. Chris L. #1 (0.0376%)

99. James R. (0.0345%)

100. Scott H. #2 (0.0343%)

101. Alex N. #3 (0.0254%)

102. Daisy N. #4 (0.0244%)

102. Damien R. #2 (0.0244%)

102. Dylan B. (0.0244%)

102. Mike McQ. #1 (0.0244%)

106. Ray W. #2 (0.0137%)

107. Kyle V. (0.0122%)

108. Jana T. (0.0116%)

109. Hutch H. #2 (0.0091%)

110. Brent E. #3 (0.0076%)

111. Chris L. #2 (0.004%)

111. Chris L. #3 (0.004%)

113. Elizabeth N. (0.0035%)

Something to know about these probabilities.  At least at the top, they are heavily leveraged on one team.  For example, Daisy N. #9 is the only bracket in the pool that has Butler winning it all.  Therefore, if Butler wins it all, she will win regardless of what happens other than that.  The same goes for Ally H. (Purdue), Bosun S. (Florida) and Howard S. #3 (West Virginia).

I will send out some data later this week regarding who will be eliminated in the single games coming up on Thursday.  So long as you are still mathematically alive, there is always a chance.  I did notice that some people's brackets are only alive so long as Xavier, Wisconsin or South Carolina win it all because no one picked that to happen.  The other 13 teams had at least one person pick them to win.  That's what makes it fun.

Good luck!!!!