4th place probabilities

Finally finished the 4th place probabilities.  First the eliminations:

Adam S. #1

Adam S. #2

Allie I.

April K.

Brent E. #2

Brent S. #1

Brent S. #2

Chad L. #2

Chad L. #3

Chris M.

Craig G.

Daisy N. #12

Daisy N. #5

Daisy N. #8

Eleanor

Emily W.

Eric R. #1

Hal R. #2

Howard S. #2

Irene H. #4

Irene H. #5

Jay H. #1

Jill M. #1

Jill M. #2

Jim D. #1

Jim D. #2

Jim D. #3

Jim D. #4

John M. #2

Kansas C. #4

Karen C.

Kevin F. #3

Kiah H.

Klei R.

Larry G. #1

Larry G. #4

Luis B. #2

Michelle L. #1

Michelle L. #2

Mike McQ. #2

Missy W. #2

Nathan R.

Pete J. #4

Presley J.

Ray W. #3

Riley Y.

Roth W. #1

Roth W. #3

Roth W. #4

Scott H. #1

Seth D.

Stefan K.

Szecho L. #1

Taima B.

Tim N.

Wayne D. #2

...and then the odds:

1. Dan D. #1 (2.4815%)

2. Dan Dz. (2.4653%)

3. Daisy N. #11 (2.444%)

4. Kansas C. #3 (2.4356%)

5. Irene H. #2 (2.3359%)

6. Ashley D. (2.3116%)

7. Paul R. #1 (2.3043%)

8. Michelle D. (2.2493%)

9. Sanjay T. (2.2089%)

10. Kirt R. #1 (2.0948%)

11. Irene H. #3 (1.9608%)

12. Zach V. (1.8702%)

13. Brent E. #4 (1.8328%)

14. Mike C. #1 (1.7942%)

15. Dan D. #2 (1.7326%)

16. Brad E. (1.5387%)

17. Kirt R. #2 (1.4287%)

18. Kevin F. #1 (1.4257%)

19. Ron KY (1.3172%)

20. Julie S. (1.2973%)

21. Hal R. #1 (1.2751%)

22. Todd K. #1 (1.224%)

23. Pete J. #3 (1.1889%)

24. Mindi W. (1.1537%)

25. Daisy N. #9 (1.1513%)

26. Paul R. #2 (1.1471%)

27. Bosun S. (1.0991%)

28. Ben J. #1 (1.0965%)

29. David S. (1.062%)

30. Pete J. #6 (1.051%)

31. Dennis R. #2 (1.0328%)

32. Josh C. (1.0146%)

33. Joe D. #1 (1.0108%)

34. Larry G. #3 (0.9991%)

35. Howard S. #3 (0.9839%)

36. Ryan S. (0.9768%)

37. Alex N. #1 (0.9765%)

38. Scott K. #2 (0.9618%)

39. Tim's Stepson (0.9236%)

40. Taylor F. (0.9236%)

41. Josh S. #2 (0.8681%)

42. Carrie F. (0.8424%)

43. Cool Guy (0.8012%)

44. Jim W. (0.7784%)

45. Damien R. #3 (0.7741%)

46. Eric V. (0.7688%)

47. Jay H. #2 (0.7608%)

48. Brian K. (0.7279%)

49. Chris T. #3 (0.7137%)

50. Ben J. #4 (0.7095%)

51. Kansas C. #1 (0.6983%)

52. Irene H. #1 (0.6968%)

53. Luis B. #3 (0.6958%)

54. Mike C. #2 (0.6956%)

55. Adam E. (0.6612%)

56. Ron V. #1 (0.6566%)

57. Ray W. #1 (0.6464%)

58. Jon F. (0.6436%)

59. Michelle R. (0.6385%)

60. Jack K. #2 (0.62%)

61. Wayne D. #1 (0.6167%)

62. Ben S. #1 (0.6057%)

63. Matt M. (0.597%)

64. Larry G. #2 (0.58%)

65. Ally H. (0.5658%)

66. Joel B. #1 (0.5259%)

67. Ben J. #3 (0.5091%)

68. Missy W. #3 (0.4938%)

69. James G. #2 (0.4816%)

70. Jax I. (0.481%)

71. John E. #2 (0.4754%)

72. Missy W. #1 (0.4734%)

73. Roth W. #2 (0.4684%)

74. Jack K. #1 (0.4653%)

75. Michelle L. #5 (0.4623%)

76. Joel B. #2 (0.4282%)

77. Daisy N. #2 (0.4272%)

78. Brett K. #1 (0.4241%)

79. Hal R. #3 (0.4196%)

80. Alyssa B. (0.4145%)

81. Mike S. #1 (0.4114%)

82. Rob I. (0.4078%)

83. Matt N. (0.3919%)

84. Jay H. #3 (0.3798%)

85. Brad R. (0.3728%)

86. Luis B. #1 (0.3626%)

87. Ben S. #2 (0.3623%)

88. Kansas C. #2 (0.3611%)

89. Dan S. (0.3592%)

90. James R. (0.3548%)

91. Jeff S. (0.3545%)

92. Daisy N. #10 (0.3479%)

93. Mike McQ. #1 (0.3307%)

94. Hutch H. #1 (0.3285%)

95. Chris T. #2 (0.3188%)

96. Brayden R. (0.3182%)

96. Chris T. #1 (0.3182%)

98. Dustin B. #1 (0.3015%)

99. Becky H. (0.2904%)

100. Gutless Jack (0.2795%)

101. Brett K. #2 (0.2772%)

102. Josh S. #1 (0.2731%)

103. Scott H. #2 (0.2691%)

104. Pete J. #5 (0.2471%)

105. Daisy N. #3 (0.2304%)

106. Alex N. #3 (0.2278%)

107. Richard Z. (0.2156%)

108. Jim K. (0.212%)

109. Marc R. (0.211%)

110. Barack O. (0.2059%)

111. Szecho L. #2 (0.1978%)

112. Jana T. (0.1947%)

113. Ava S. (0.1941%)

114. Cory W. (0.1861%)

115. Joe D. #3 (0.1846%)

116. Ben J. #5 (0.1841%)

117. Dustin B. #2 (0.1708%)

118. James G. #1 (0.1678%)

119. Kyle V. (0.1653%)

120. Ken P. (0.1647%)

121. Brandon H. (0.1586%)

121. Chrissy I. (0.1586%)

123. Todd K. #2 (0.1584%)

124. Daisy N. #6 (0.1536%)

125. Chris L. #1 (0.1523%)

126. Dylan B. (0.1439%)

127. Molly R. (0.1434%)

128. Ben J. #2 (0.1419%)

129. Alex N. #2 (0.1393%)

130. Brent E. #3 (0.1373%)

131. Michelle L. #3 (0.132%)

132. Chad L. #1 (0.1261%)

133. Daisy N. #4 (0.1256%)

134. John E. #1 (0.1235%)

135. Joshua R. (0.1129%)

135. Scott K. #1 (0.1129%)

137. Bella S. (0.0939%)

138. Gigi I. (0.0915%)

139. Luis B. #5 (0.0874%)

140. Brent E. #1 (0.0839%)

141. Kevin F. #2 (0.0834%)

142. Hutch H. #2 (0.0834%)

143. Luis B. #4 (0.0813%)

144. Ray W. #2 (0.0808%)

145. Michelle L. #4 (0.0732%)

146. John M. #1 (0.0722%)

147. Pete J. #2 (0.0661%)

148. Elizabeth N. (0.0651%)

149. Brett W. (0.063%)

150. Mike W. (0.061%)

151. Eric R. #2 (0.0488%)

152. Pete J. #1 (0.0437%)

153. Alyssa N. (0.0427%)

154. Jaxon S. (0.0391%)

155. Jack K. #4 (0.0386%)

156. Chris L. #2 (0.0363%)

156. Chris L. #3 (0.0363%)

158. Damien R. #1 (0.0335%)

159. Howard S. #1 (0.0244%)

159. Mike S. #2 (0.0244%)

161. Damien R. #2 (0.0228%)

162. Daisy N. #7 (0.0203%)

163. Daisy N. #1 (0.0183%)

164. Arianna S. (0.0091%)

165. Scott Has. (0.0083%)

166. Josh D. (0.0045%)

167. Joe D. #2 (0.0044%)

168. Dennis R. #1 (0.003%)

169. Ron V. #2 (0.0015%)

That means that through 48 games of this tournament we have only managed to mathematically eliminate 56 entries from all payout positions.  That also means that we 169 brackets are alive for something with 15 games to go.  What that also means, which is more fun for me is that every game from here on out promises to be a bloodbath.  Maybe the Wisconsin / Florida game not as much as, say, Kentucky / UCLA, but I think people would be surprised at how important some of these off games are.  You may not have picked Wisconsin or Florida to win their next game, but it's possible that someone else whose bracket is similar to yours did, and that person could pass you or gain an insurmountable lead, meaning that you HAVE to win that game.

This is where the fun really starts.  Good luck!!!!!