Day 3 - Preview

Good morning everyone.  Who’s up for 2 more days of basketball?!  I am!  The big difference is that there are fewer games, they mean more and more than a few people need to stop actually rooting for teams and rooting for chaos.

I was putting together a cheat sheet for this round, and it’s interesting to see just how many people can get zero points from what games.  Of the top 5 games where people can get nothing, only one of them is today, so most people will have at least some rooting interest in most of the games that happen today.  The rule of thumb if you don’t have someone in a game is that you want the team that knocked your team out to win.  So, if you had Nevada making the Sweet 16, you probably want Dayton to win today.  That’s not always true, but it typically is.

So, they are scheduling the games the same way they seem to do every weekend.  They are starting with 2 games all by themselves.  They they start to stagger the start times, 1 every hour.  That doesn’t give me a ton of good places to update stuff, so I’m going to go in 4 block sets like yesterday for previews.  I’ll probably update standings after every game, unless there are 2 that wind up ending around the same time.

Game 33

Arizona v Dayton

Vegas Line: Arizona -9

Picks for Arizona: 236

Picks for Dayton: 16

Picks for Other: 32

As I was putting together the pick sheet for today, I was kind of surprised about just how many of the favorites were taken.  A lot of the games kind of look like this one.  As a matter of fact, there is only one game where the underdog by the seeds is picked more than the favorite.  I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by that.  In all but 2 games, the top 4 seed is still alive.  Maybe I should’ve been surprised that there is even one.  Anyway, this is not that one.

Arizona beat Long Beach State in the first round, and they looked about as good as people expected them to look.  Dayton did a little bit better than people expected.  I say that because a majority of people had them losing to Nevada.  They were actually not favored to win that game based on the Vegas line either, so they seem to be overachieving slightly so far.  Not sure if it’s enough to beat Arizona, but at least it sets up for an interesting game, although 9 points is a pretty big spread.  It’s actually the 2^nd biggest line of the day, so almost get to wear the Dayton t-shirt today.  Almost…

Game 34

Kansas v Gonzaga

Vegas Line: Gonzaga -4.5

Picks for Kansas: 93

Picks for Gonzaga: 130

Picks for Other: 51

It’s payback time, basketball gods!  Don’t think I’ve forgotten.  Kansas should have lost in the first round to Samford.  The refs blew a call at the end of the game that sealed the win for Kansas.  If they get that call right, Samford has the ball down two and all the momentum in the world.  There’s no guarantee they would win from there, but blowing the whistle insured that they didn’t.  The basketball gods can’t help Samford, but they can sure punish Kansas.  I hope they do.

This was the game I was referring to in the Game 33 preview.  Gonzaga is the worse seed at #5, but more people have them winning than Kansas at #4.  There are some special circumstances that make that a reasonable pick to make.  Kansas is coming in injured and not playing particularly well.  Gonzaga is healthy and is.  Gonzaga is actually favored to win this game, by a pretty decent amount for a 4/5 game.  It seems like the public is with Gonzaga here.

Game 35

North Carolina v Michigan State

Vegas Line: North Carolina -3.5

Picks For North Carolina: 235

Picks for Michigan State: 23

Picks for Other: 16

I know this is a 1/9 game, so the picks are going to be lopsided towards the 1, but this is Michigan State.  They are one of the few teams out there that seems to consistently overperform vs their seed level.  You could argue that they already have, since they were a 9 and beat an 8.  North Carolina was supposed to be the weakest of the #1 seeds, so this seems a little low.

Also, look at the Vegas line.  It’s only 3.5.  There is another game today with a 3.5 point spread and people picked the upset there at twice the rate as they did here.  I’m going to pull for Michigan State in this one.  I hope this is our 2^nd or 3^rd upset of the day.

Game 36

Iowa State v Washington State

Vegas Line: Iowa State -6.5

Picks for Iowa State: 228

Picks for Washington State: 19

Picks for Other: 27

I feel like the default point spread for most of these second round games is around 6.5 points.  6 of the 16 games fall within 1 point of that number.  This is the first of them.  Not sure what to say about this game.  Both teams outperformed expectations, but not by a ton in the first round.  I know Iowa State was a trendy pick.  I know precious little about Washington State, so it’s hard for me to get too excited about this one.  My gut tells me that this is going to be the upset of the morning 4.  That’s always how it works.  The game I can’t see as an upset is the upset.

OK, I have to start my laundry and get situated for the early games.  I’m going to calculate some stuff this morning that I’ll have for everyone a little later regarding points in each region, so look for that.

Otherwise, enjoy the games, everyone!!!!