NCAA Day 2 - Preview and pick link

 Good morning.  Let me start off with this – If you want to check the picks that I have for you and the scoring that I use, here is the link to the spreadsheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ll7LEMzOKQnwvS9KjZ_OXxT6MEnu-s1p/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=115935305822530497124&rtpof=true&sd=true

Let me know if you see anything that I have entered wrong.  I have to enter a lot of picks, so it’s possible.  I calculate probabilities of winning after this weekend, so whatever is there is going to be the official entry.  Nothing will change after that.

I can share all the other spreadsheets if anyone is interested.  The only interesting thing about them is probably the code, but if you want to see how you can win a region or something, that info is available as well.

OK, there are 4 games going off this morning.

Game 17

Florida Atlantic v Northwestern

Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -2.5

Picks for Florida Atlantic: 180

Picks for Northwestern: 94

This is a bit of a strange distribution for an 8/9 game.  I feel like people have long memories of last year when Florida Atlantic made the Final Four.  I’d say that this Florida Atlantic is different from last years team, but they pretty much brought back the entire team, and they finished as about the same seed.  I think the main difference between last year and this year was the expectations going in.  Last year, no one knew who they were.  This year, they were ranked at the start of the season.  One could make the case that they got this high of a seed based on reputation.  I’m not sure a generic team with the same record would get an 8 seed.

As for Northwestern, meh…  They are a mid-tier power conference team.  I guess they get a little of a break because they had a really long track record of not making the tournament.  They’ve been making it pretty consistently the last few years, so some of that feel good story is diminished.  Still, this game should be good as a tie-breaker.  Not many people have the winner going to the Sweet 16.

Game 18

Baylor v Colgate

Vegas Line: Baylor -13.5

Picks for Baylor: 260

Picks for Colgate: 14

I think for about 5 years in a row, I would fall in love with Baylor during the regular season, pick them to make the Final 4, and then get kicked in the guts when they went out a round or two earlier than they should have.  There was a saying in my house: “Baylor will always let you down”.  Then, they won the Championship a few years ago.  Was that an outlier, or are they back to their choking ways?  Hard to say.  More correctly, if they lose to Colgate, we will have our answer.

I think Colgate is no slouch.  They’ve been to the tournament something like 5 years in a row.  That is really impressive from a 1-bid league.  They shouldn’t be intimidated by Baylor, so maybe this Oakland revisited.  I also like that it’s a school founded by a toothpaste magnate.  That’s a fun fact.

Game 19

San Diego State vs UAB

Vegas Line: SDSU -6.5

Picks for SDSU: 231

Picks for UAB: 43

Is this the most important game of the day?  For most of the country, probably not.  For just about everyone I interact with on a daily basis, yes.  Yes, it is.

I had someone ask me once what my favorite college t-shirt was, and I think my answer was either Oregon, because it has the logo in the armpit so that you can see them when you raise your arms to celebrate.  I also said UAB, because it’s forest green and has a dragon on it.  That being said, there was zero chance I was wearing that t-shirt today.  I remember two years ago, I had two “sleepers” I was going to pick to go really far – Houston and UAB.  Then the committee put them against each other in the first round.  I typically like picking UAB, but not this year.  I hope this is a game where I can take a nap.

Do I think that SDSU can make another run to the Final 4?  Sure.  Why not?  They are virtually in the same position they were last year.  They are in the 4/5 part of the bracket with the #1 overall seed.  That was the same as last year, only they were the 4 and the #1 overall seed was Alabama.

Go Aztecs!

Game 20

Marquette v Western Kentucky

Vegas Line: Marquette -14.5

Picks for Marquette: 264

Picks for Western Kentucky: 10

Does anyone have a good feeling about Marquette?  Their best player missed the last 6 games of the season, so no one seems to have a good feeling for how well he will play.  I think that made Kentucky a trendy pick in this part of the bracket.  Based on the distribution, it didn’t give many people pause about this game, however.

Good luck!!!!!