Saturday, March 23, 2024

Regional details

 I put together a regional picks spreadsheet.  It has the points and picks for all games within a region.  It gives some additional context to who can win what in what region.  It also illustrates why some people have higher odds of winning a region than others.

First, let’s break down who is at the top by points in each region.

In the East region, we had only one person go 8/8 in the first round.  That person was April K.  The average amount of points we got in that region was 4.69 correct out of 8.

In the West region, we had 7 people that went 8/8 in the first round.  The average amount of points we won in that region was 5.52 correct out of 8.

In the South region, no one went 8/8.  The best anyone did was 11 people that went 7/8, including 2 people (Chun W. #1, Gigi I.) whose only missed pick was Kentucky, who they had winning the region.  That’s rough….  Those picks show as being knocked out by Western Kentucky.  That is because they could have still won the region if chaos broke out everywhere.  When Marquette won, the chaos was limited and they were knocked out.  The average amount of points we won in that region was 4.71 correct out of 8.  I would have thought this was the hardest region to predict, but apparently the East is the toughest.

In the Midwest region, 15 people went 8/8.  The average amount of points we won in that region was 6.08 correct out of 8, making it the most predictable bracket so far.

For the East Region, here are the brackets that are alive right now, their points won/lost, the Elite 8 and Final 4 picks along with the percent chances of winning:

Display

Total

Marshmellow (Nik B.): 6 (-4) - Northwestern / Duquesne / Duquesne

21.0938%

April K.: 8 (0) - Connecticut / Illinois / Illinois

13.2813%

Becky H.: 7 (-1) - Connecticut / Washington State / Connecticut

12.5000%

Dan Dug. #2: 7 (-1) - Connecticut / Iowa State / Iowa State

10.1563%

Kim F.: 7 (-1) - San Diego State / Iowa State / Iowa State

10.1563%

Constance McA.: 5 (-7) - San Diego State / Washington State / Washington State

8.5938%

Jackson I.: 7 (-3) - Connecticut / Iowa State / Iowa State

6.2500%

Matt W.: 7 (-3) - Connecticut / Iowa State / Iowa State

6.2500%

Legend of Zelli: 5 (-3) - San Diego State / Illinois / San Diego State

6.2500%

DESGRU8 (Dan Dz.): 6 (-2) - Connecticut / Illinois / Illinois

5.4688%

Connor W.: 7 (-1) - Connecticut / Iowa State / Connecticut

4.6875%

Bryce O.: 7 (-7) - Auburn / Iowa State / Iowa State

4.6875%

Def Efficiency: 7 (-7) - Auburn / Iowa State / Iowa State

4.6875%

Dylan B.: 6 (-2) - San Diego State / Iowa State / San Diego State

4.6875%

Marc R.: 6 (-2) - Connecticut / Iowa State / Connecticut

3.9063%

Mark B.: 6 (-2) - Connecticut / Iowa State / Connecticut

3.9063%

Moochie #4: 5 (-3) - Connecticut / Illinois / Connecticut

3.9063%

Scott K. #2: 7 (-3) - Connecticut / Iowa State / Connecticut

3.1250%

Paul W.: 4 (-4) - San Diego State / Iowa State / San Diego State

3.1250%

Amanda R.: 7 (-15) - Auburn / Illinois / Auburn

2.3438%

Ali A. #2: 4 (-12) - Auburn / Washington State / Washington State

2.3438%

Brad R.: 6 (-2) - Connecticut / Illinois / Connecticut

1.5625%

Kirt R. #2: 6 (-2) - San Diego State / Illinois / Illinois

1.5625%

Greg R.: 6 (-4) - Connecticut / Iowa State / Connecticut

1.5625%

Stephen C.: 6 (-4) - Connecticut / Iowa State / Connecticut

1.5625%

John N.: 5 (-3) - San Diego State / Illinois / San Diego State

1.5625%

Szecho L.: 5 (-3) - San Diego State / Illinois / Illinois

1.5625%

Dan Dug. #1: 7 (-3) - Connecticut / Illinois / Connecticut

0.7813%

Brandon B. #2: 6 (-2) - Connecticut / Illinois / Connecticut

0.7813%

Brooklynn B.: 6 (-2) - Connecticut / Illinois / Connecticut

0.7813%

Mike N.: 6 (-2) - Connecticut / Illinois / Connecticut

0.7813%

…and the West Region:

Display

Total

Moochie #3: 6 (-10) - Mississippi State / Dayton / Dayton

11.7188%

Daisy N. #2: 5 (-5) - North Carolina / Clemson / Clemson

10.9375%

Finn D.: 5 (-5) - Grand Canyon / Clemson / Grand Canyon

7.8125%

Brent E. #1: 8 (0) - Michigan State / Arizona / Michigan State

7.0313%

Howard S. #2: 7 (-1) - Alabama / Clemson / Alabama

6.2500%

Kiah H. #1: 6 (-2) - Alabama / Dayton / Alabama

5.4688%

Moochie #2: 5 (-11) - Mississippi State / Clemson / Clemson

5.4688%

Szecho L.: 8 (0) - North Carolina / Baylor / Baylor

4.6875%

Mason A. #1: 7 (-1) - Michigan State / Baylor / Baylor

4.6875%

Brandie H.: 5 (-7) - Grand Canyon / Arizona / Grand Canyon

4.6875%

Chris M.: 7 (-1) - Michigan State / Baylor / Michigan State

3.1250%

Off Efficiency: 7 (-1) - Alabama / Baylor / Alabama

3.1250%

D. Mag #1: 7 (-1) - Alabama / Arizona / Alabama

3.1250%

Legend of Zelli: 6 (-4) - Michigan State / Arizona / Arizona

3.1250%

Kristina H.: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Clemson / North Carolina

3.1250%

Brent E. #2: 8 (0) - North Carolina / Arizona / North Carolina

2.3438%

Dawn T.: 8 (0) - North Carolina / Arizona / North Carolina

2.3438%

Daisy N. #7: 8 (0) - North Carolina / Arizona / North Carolina

2.3438%

Ryan G.: 7 (-7) - Michigan State / Nevada / Michigan State

2.3438%

Steve Dz. #2: 7 (-1) - North Carolina / Baylor / North Carolina

2.3438%

Ryan Green: 6 (-4) - North Carolina / Arizona / North Carolina

2.3438%

Brent E. #3: 8 (0) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

1.5625%

Brent E. #4: 8 (0) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

1.5625%

Kristin G.: 7 (-3) - Grand Canyon / Arizona / Arizona

1.5625%

John Mack #1: 7 (-1) - North Carolina / Arizona / North Carolina

1.5625%

Alyssa B.: 7 (-1) - Alabama / Arizona / Arizona

1.5625%

Irene H. #4: 7 (-1) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

1.5625%

Dave A.: 7 (-1) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

1.5625%

Elizabeth N. #1: 7 (-1) - Alabama / Arizona / Arizona

1.5625%

Melissa M.: 7 (-1) - North Carolina / Arizona / North Carolina

1.5625%

Tim Dz. #1: 6 (-4) - Alabama / Baylor / Baylor

1.5625%

John N.: 6 (-6) - Michigan State / Arizona / Arizona

1.5625%

Missy W. #1: 6 (-4) - North Carolina / Clemson / North Carolina

1.5625%

Michelle L. #1: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Baylor / Baylor

1.5625%

D. Mag #3: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Baylor / North Carolina

1.5625%

Brandon H. #1: 6 (-2) - Grand Canyon / Arizona / Arizona

1.5625%

Wayne D. #2: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Baylor / Baylor

1.5625%

Harrell R. #2: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Baylor / North Carolina

1.5625%

Harrell R. #1: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Baylor / North Carolina

1.5625%

Harrell R. #3: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Baylor / North Carolina

1.5625%

Paul K. #2: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Baylor / Baylor

1.5625%

Harrell R. #4: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Baylor / North Carolina

1.5625%

Irene H. #5: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Baylor / Baylor

1.5625%

Pete J. #1: 5 (-3) - Alabama / Arizona / Alabama

1.5625%

Jared V.: 5 (-3) - Alabama / Baylor / Baylor

1.5625%

Noah G.: 7 (-3) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

0.7813%

Gigi I.: 7 (-3) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

0.7813%

Ally H.: 7 (-1) - Alabama / Arizona / Arizona

0.7813%

Dan Dug. #1: 7 (-1) - Alabama / Arizona / Arizona

0.7813%

Deanna T.: 7 (-1) - North Carolina / Baylor / North Carolina

0.7813%

Moochie #1: 7 (-1) - North Carolina / Baylor / North Carolina

0.7813%

Joe C.: 7 (-1) - North Carolina / Baylor / North Carolina

0.7813%

Kim F.: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

0.7813%

Matt W.: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

0.7813%

Dan Mck.: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

0.7813%

Moochie #5: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Arizona / North Carolina

0.7813%

Brent S. #1: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

0.7813%

Luis B. #3: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

0.7813%

Seth D.: 6 (-2) - North Carolina / Arizona / Arizona

0.7813%

Patrick McC. #2: 4 (-6) - Michigan State / Arizona / Arizona

0.7813%

..and the South region:

Display

Total

Charlotte N.: 6 (-4) - Texas A&M / Marquette / Texas A&M

14.0625%

Moochie #3: 5 (-5) - James Madison / NC State / James Madison

12.5000%

Faye N.: 6 (-8) - Texas A&M / Kentucky / Texas A&M

10.9375%

Ali A. #1: 3 (-7) - Texas A&M / Oakland / Oakland

10.1563%

Mark A.: 7 (-3) - Houston / BSU / Colo / Houston

9.3750%

Harrell R. #2: 6 (-2) - Houston / NC State / NC State

7.8125%

Derek H.: 6 (-4) - Duke / BSU / Colo / Duke

7.0313%

Daisy N. #8: 6 (-2) - Duke / NC State / NC State

6.2500%

Shawn D.: 6 (-4) - Houston / Oakland / Houston

5.4688%

Nick I.: 6 (-4) - James Madison / Marquette / Marquette

4.6875%

Bryce S.: 5 (-5) - Houston / BSU / Colo / Houston

4.6875%

Kirt R. #2: 6 (-2) - Duke / Marquette / Duke

3.9063%

Ryan G.: 6 (-2) - Duke / Marquette / Duke

3.9063%

Daniel E.: 6 (-2) - Duke / Marquette / Duke

3.9063%

Ryan Green: 5 (-5) - Houston / Marquette / Houston

3.9063%

Derek B.: 7 (-1) - Duke / Marquette / Marquette

3.1250%

Daisy N. #4: 7 (-1) - Duke / NC State / Duke

3.1250%

Jim W.: 7 (-1) - Houston / Marquette / Houston

3.1250%

David F. #2: 5 (-5) - Texas A&M / Marquette / Marquette

3.1250%

Roth W.: 7 (-3) - Houston / Marquette / Houston

1.5625%

Dirk F.: 7 (-3) - Duke / Marquette / Marquette

1.5625%

Adam E.: 7 (-1) - Houston / NC State / Houston

1.5625%

Dan Dug. #2: 6 (-4) - Houston / Marquette / Marquette

1.5625%

Scott H. #1: 6 (-4) - Houston / Marquette / Marquette

1.5625%

Chris T.: 6 (-4) - Houston / Marquette / Marquette

1.5625%

Rob I.: 6 (-4) - Houston / Marquette / Marquette

1.5625%

John Mack #1: 6 (-2) - Duke / NC State / NC State

1.5625%

Wayne D. #3: 5 (-5) - Houston / Marquette / Marquette

1.5625%

Paul W.: 4 (-4) - Houston / NC State / NC State

1.5625%

Marshmellow (Nik B.): 6 (-8) - Duke / Texas Tech / Duke

0.7813%

Daisy N. #3: 6 (-2) - Houston / NC State / Houston

0.7813%

Michael S. #2: 6 (-2) - Houston / NC State / Houston

0.7813%

Henry A.: 5 (-17) - Wisconsin / BSU / Colo / Wisconsin

0.7813%

Brandon H. #1: 5 (-5) - Houston / Marquette / Houston

0.7813%

Brett W.: 5 (-5) - Houston / Marquette / Houston

0.7813%

Zach V.: 5 (-5) - Houston / Marquette / Houston

0.7813%

Scott H. #2: 5 (-5) - Houston / Marquette / Houston

0.7813%

Wayne D. #4: 5 (-5) - Houston / Marquette / Houston

0.7813%

Tim N.: 5 (-5) - Houston / Marquette / Marquette

0.7813%

Eric S. #2: 5 (-3) - Duke / NC State / Duke

0.7813%

…and the Midwest:

Display

Total

Tomas L.: 7 (-1) - Gonzaga / Texas / Texas

13.2813%

Alyssa B.: 8 (0) - Gonzaga / Creighton / Gonzaga

7.8125%

Connor W.: 7 (-1) - Utah State / Tennessee / Tennessee

7.0313%

Chris E.: 6 (-2) - Utah State / Creighton / Creighton

6.2500%

Elizabeth N. #2: 7 (-1) - Kansas / Texas / Kansas

5.4688%

Ali A. #1: 5 (-5) - Utah State / Oregon / Oregon

5.4688%

Dianna A.: 7 (-1) - Kansas / Oregon / Kansas

3.9063%

Daisy N. #11: 6 (-2) - Purdue / Oregon / Oregon

3.9063%

Dan Dug. #2: 7 (-1) - Kansas / Creighton / Kansas

3.1250%

Kirt R. #2: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Texas / Purdue

3.1250%

Missy W. #1: 7 (-1) - Gonzaga / Tennessee / Gonzaga

3.1250%

Mike V.: 7 (-1) - Kansas / Creighton / Creighton

3.1250%

Damien R. #3: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Texas / Purdue

3.1250%

Mustard (Nikolajs B.): 6 (-4) - Kansas / Oregon / Oregon

3.1250%

Jackson I.: 8 (0) - Kansas / Tennessee / Tennessee

1.5625%

Damien R. #2: 8 (0) - Purdue / Tennessee / Purdue

1.5625%

Kevin F. #1: 7 (-3) - Purdue / Oregon / Oregon

1.5625%

Steve Dz. #2: 7 (-3) - Kansas / Creighton / Kansas

1.5625%

Christopher K.: 7 (-3) - Kansas / Creighton / Kansas

1.5625%

Becky H.: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Creighton / Purdue

1.5625%

Chun W. #1: 7 (-1) - Gonzaga / Tennessee / Tennessee

1.5625%

Brent E. #2: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Creighton / Purdue

1.5625%

Dave A.: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Oregon / Purdue

1.5625%

Ryan Green: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Oregon / Purdue

1.5625%

Vang L.: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Oregon / Purdue

1.5625%

Brad R.: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Oregon / Purdue

1.5625%

Moochie #5: 7 (-1) - Gonzaga / Creighton / Creighton

1.5625%

Chris T.: 7 (-1) - Gonzaga / Creighton / Creighton

1.5625%

Mason A. #2: 7 (-1) - Gonzaga / Tennessee / Tennessee

1.5625%

Rich F.: 7 (-1) - Gonzaga / Tennessee / Tennessee

1.5625%

Carlo G.: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Creighton / Purdue

1.5625%

Kyle V.: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Oregon / Purdue

1.5625%

Brooklynn B.: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Creighton / Purdue

1.5625%

Off Efficiency: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Creighton / Purdue

1.5625%

David F. #1: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Creighton / Purdue

1.5625%

Andrew D. #2: 7 (-1) - Kansas / Tennessee / Kansas

1.5625%

Melody K.: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Creighton / Purdue

1.5625%

Scott H. #2: 7 (-1) - Gonzaga / Tennessee / Tennessee

1.5625%

Brian K.: 7 (-1) - Gonzaga / Creighton / Creighton

1.5625%

Mitchell S.: 7 (-1) - Gonzaga / Tennessee / Tennessee

1.5625%

Matt H.: 6 (-2) - Gonzaga / Tennessee / Gonzaga

1.5625%

Hutch H. #1: 6 (-2) - Kansas / Tennessee / Kansas

1.5625%

Ryan G.: 5 (-3) - Purdue / Oregon / Purdue

1.5625%

D. Mag #4: 4 (-6) - Utah State / Oregon / Oregon

1.5625%

Mark A.: 8 (0) - Purdue / Creighton / Purdue

0.7813%

Daisy N. #3: 8 (0) - Purdue / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

Michelle L. #1: 8 (0) - Purdue / Creighton / Creighton

0.7813%

Michelle L. #3: 8 (0) - Purdue / Creighton / Creighton

0.7813%

Michelle L. #4: 8 (0) - Purdue / Tennessee / Purdue

0.7813%

Patrick McC. #1: 8 (0) - Purdue / Creighton / Purdue

0.7813%

Irene H. #4: 8 (0) - Purdue / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

Michelle L. #2: 8 (0) - Purdue / Creighton / Purdue

0.7813%

Daisy N. #9: 8 (0) - Kansas / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

Damien R. #1: 8 (0) - Purdue / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

Daisy N. #8: 8 (0) - Purdue / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

Dennis R.: 8 (0) - Purdue / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

Kevin F. #2: 7 (-3) - Purdue / Oregon / Purdue

0.7813%

Daisy N. #1: 7 (-3) - Purdue / Oregon / Purdue

0.7813%

Nick I.: 7 (-3) - Purdue / Creighton / Purdue

0.7813%

Brent E. #3: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Purdue

0.7813%

Brent E. #4: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Purdue

0.7813%

Niren D.: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Purdue

0.7813%

Colston W.: 7 (-1) - Kansas / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

John A. #2: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Purdue

0.7813%

Pete J. #1: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

CAAT #3: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

CAAT #4: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

Moochie #1: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Creighton / Creighton

0.7813%

Gutless Bracket: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Purdue

0.7813%

Mary Lou H.: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Purdue

0.7813%

Dan L. #1: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

Dustin B.: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Creighton / Creighton

0.7813%

Chris L. #4: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Tennessee

0.7813%

Larry G. #2: 7 (-1) - Purdue / Tennessee / Purdue

0.7813%

D. Mag #1: 7 (-1) - Gonzaga / Creighton / Creighton

0.7813%

Craig G.: 6 (-4) - Purdue / Texas / Purdue

0.7813%

Dan Dug. #1: 6 (-2) - Purdue / Tennessee / Purdue

0.7813%

There you go.  Root accordingly…..

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