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Well, I’ve done it. I’ve figured out the probabilities to get all 5 payouts this year. Something I noticed, which shouldn’t be a big surprised – there are way more chances for a tie-breaker deciding things, the further away from the top you get. If you think of the point distribution as a bell curve this makes sense. The worse the place, the further away from the tail it is, so the density of the distribution is higher.
It also means that a lot of people are still alive for
something. There are only 35 brackets
out of 274 that are mathematically eliminated from all 5 spots. Here are those unlucky souls:
|
Adalyn H. |
|
Ali A. #1 |
|
Ali A. #2 |
|
Amanda R. |
|
Brandie H. |
|
CAAT #1 |
|
CAAT #2 |
|
D. Mag #4 |
|
Daisy N. #11 |
|
Damien R. #4 |
|
David F. #1 |
|
Dianna A. |
|
Elizabeth N. #2 |
|
Elizabeth P. #3 |
|
Faye N. |
|
Henry A. |
|
Hutch H. #1 |
|
Josh C. |
|
Karen C. |
|
Kevin F. #1 |
|
Klei R. #3 |
|
Mark B. |
|
Mason A. #1 |
|
Matt M. |
|
Melissa M. |
|
Moochie #1 |
|
Moochie #3 |
|
Mustard (Nikolajs B.) |
|
Noah N. |
|
Pete J. #2 |
|
Shanky G. |
|
Shawn D. |
|
Stephen C. |
|
Wayne D. #2 |
|
Wayne D. #5 |
For those that are familiar with the matrix, this should all
be old news to you, but for those that aren’t here’s the details. The matrix is the list of probabilities of each
bracket to win each of the places. The
percentage listed in the square are the odds for that bracket to win that specific
spot. For instance:
|
Name |
1st Place |
2nd Place |
3rd Place |
4th Place |
5th Place |
|
Brad R. - Connecticut |
0.0676% |
0.0589% |
0.0709% |
0.0895% |
0.0741% |
Brad R. has Connecticut winning it all. The percentages listed are the chances his
bracket finishes in that spot. His
overall chances of winning something are 0.3612%, which is the sum of his
chances 1st thru 5th.
Ideally, you want this to be 100%, because then you will win something.
So, here is the matrix.
It is sorted by the percent chance of winning something:
|
Name |
1st Place |
2nd Place |
3rd Place |
4th Place |
5th Place |
|
Missy W. #1 - Marquette |
4.4261% |
3.5785% |
3.7340% |
2.2138% |
2.0871% |
|
John Mack #1 - Connecticut |
2.8208% |
2.6464% |
3.3826% |
2.2706% |
1.4320% |
|
Legend of Zelli - Duke |
6.2121% |
1.4325% |
1.2713% |
1.0150% |
1.0174% |
|
Kim F. - Creighton |
4.7974% |
2.4479% |
1.2715% |
0.7710% |
0.8205% |
|
Paul W. - North Carolina |
1.6342% |
3.0497% |
2.1633% |
1.3757% |
1.4521% |
|
Michelle L. #5 - Alabama |
5.5054% |
1.2268% |
0.6653% |
1.2121% |
0.6873% |
|
Michelle L. #4 - Purdue |
1.1765% |
1.3748% |
2.4139% |
2.0589% |
2.0468% |
|
John N. - San Diego State |
4.9235% |
1.5483% |
0.5915% |
0.4262% |
0.4942% |
|
Ally H. - Purdue |
1.2604% |
1.1887% |
1.5594% |
1.6594% |
1.9686% |
|
Brian K. - Illinois |
3.5853% |
1.3357% |
1.0442% |
0.7955% |
0.7703% |
|
Daisy N. #3 - Houston |
1.5803% |
1.6436% |
1.3279% |
1.2466% |
1.6772% |
|
Derek B. - North Carolina |
0.7085% |
0.9893% |
1.3247% |
1.7616% |
2.4935% |
|
Chris E. - Marquette |
1.2070% |
1.7812% |
1.8636% |
1.6772% |
0.7184% |
|
Brett G. (Sleeper) - Iowa State |
1.9404% |
1.2751% |
1.3875% |
1.3229% |
1.3110% |
|
Rich F. - Marquette |
0.7278% |
2.2171% |
1.9175% |
1.5732% |
0.6805% |
|
Dustin B. - Creighton |
1.7639% |
2.8519% |
1.8590% |
0.3032% |
0.2164% |
|
Harrell R. #2 - NC State |
5.1010% |
1.0459% |
0.4265% |
0.1833% |
0.2374% |
|
Chun W. #2 - North Carolina |
0.8209% |
1.1185% |
1.1297% |
1.5462% |
2.3471% |
|
Moochie #2 - Tennessee |
2.1820% |
0.9102% |
1.2680% |
1.1499% |
1.2441% |
|
Jim W. - North Carolina |
1.1765% |
1.1490% |
1.2627% |
1.6538% |
1.4633% |
|
Vang L. - Iowa State |
1.4486% |
2.3565% |
1.2085% |
0.9201% |
0.5391% |
|
Beau H. - Alabama |
0.8179% |
5.1249% |
0.3016% |
0.0056% |
0.0336% |
|
Paul K. #2 - Illinois |
0.9079% |
2.3554% |
1.8118% |
0.8742% |
0.3333% |
|
Chrissy I. - Arizona |
1.3957% |
0.8377% |
1.2095% |
1.4324% |
1.3816% |
|
Kirt R. #2 - Purdue |
0.7281% |
1.3212% |
1.2128% |
1.3978% |
1.4603% |
|
Steve Dz. #2 - Illinois |
1.0681% |
0.8911% |
1.5264% |
1.4969% |
1.0264% |
|
Tim N. - Marquette |
1.4755% |
0.7813% |
0.9908% |
2.0134% |
0.4059% |
|
Charlotte N. - San Diego State |
1.0147% |
2.0152% |
1.3814% |
0.7172% |
0.3291% |
|
Bryce S. - Creighton |
0.2289% |
1.2711% |
2.3865% |
0.9791% |
0.5903% |
|
Jackson I. - Tennessee |
0.5366% |
1.0211% |
1.2278% |
1.2304% |
1.2545% |
|
Constance McA. - Gonzaga |
2.5553% |
0.9557% |
0.6076% |
0.3716% |
0.3168% |
|
Daisy N. #6 - Iowa State |
Sweet
16 |
0.4166% |
1.5869% |
1.5055% |
1.2492% |
|
Matt H. - Connecticut |
0.9125% |
1.2212% |
0.8695% |
0.9662% |
0.7671% |
|
Mike W. - Iowa State |
1.4353% |
1.2731% |
0.8341% |
0.5468% |
0.6109% |
|
Kiah H. #1 - Houston |
0.7640% |
0.8128% |
1.3275% |
1.0718% |
0.6567% |
|
Daisy N. #8 - Tennessee |
0.8123% |
1.0345% |
1.0137% |
0.8742% |
0.7826% |
|
Scott H. #1 - Connecticut |
0.9918% |
0.5961% |
0.6927% |
0.7794% |
1.4270% |
|
Greg R. - Purdue |
0.1984% |
0.6332% |
0.6983% |
1.4150% |
1.4826% |
|
Elliot N. - Connecticut |
0.5417% |
0.5590% |
0.8166% |
1.2542% |
1.1723% |
|
Christopher K. - Illinois |
0.0361% |
0.9008% |
0.5285% |
1.5132% |
1.3504% |
|
Cicely K. - North Carolina |
0.9811% |
0.8540% |
0.8488% |
0.7300% |
0.8337% |
|
Chris T. - North Carolina |
0.3385% |
0.5882% |
0.9387% |
0.9779% |
1.3638% |
|
Brent E. #2 - North Carolina |
0.6147% |
0.9212% |
0.7206% |
0.8956% |
1.0535% |
|
Mark A. - Arizona |
0.7947% |
0.5610% |
0.8908% |
1.0693% |
0.8501% |
|
Def Efficiency - Iowa State |
1.3616% |
0.6241% |
0.6780% |
0.8169% |
0.6709% |
|
Dan L. #1 - Tennessee |
0.3962% |
1.1650% |
0.9458% |
0.8313% |
0.7919% |
|
Michelle L. #3 - Houston |
0.7884% |
0.6182% |
0.7439% |
0.9058% |
0.9685% |
|
Ben S. - Connecticut |
0.4954% |
0.4033% |
0.9387% |
0.9299% |
1.2369% |
|
John E. #1 - Houston |
0.4341% |
0.9549% |
0.7276% |
0.8256% |
1.0336% |
|
Eric S. #2 - Purdue |
0.9275% |
0.8771% |
0.7187% |
0.7467% |
0.6946% |
|
Daisy N. #4 - Connecticut |
0.4389% |
0.7985% |
0.8434% |
0.8602% |
0.8231% |
|
Emily T. - Arizona |
0.7347% |
0.7202% |
0.9489% |
0.6003% |
0.5625% |
|
Michael S. #2 - Purdue |
0.6281% |
0.5960% |
0.7227% |
0.7578% |
0.8176% |
|
Andrew D. #1 - Houston |
0.6510% |
0.6803% |
0.7361% |
0.6298% |
0.7299% |
|
Daisy N. #12 - Tennessee |
0.8408% |
0.6241% |
0.5569% |
0.6789% |
0.6465% |
|
Jared B. - Iowa State |
Sweet
16 |
0.2579% |
0.7965% |
1.1317% |
1.1002% |
|
Chun W. #1 - Tennessee |
0.3998% |
0.6729% |
0.6404% |
0.6887% |
0.7947% |
|
Pete J. #1 - Connecticut |
0.3565% |
0.4288% |
1.0434% |
0.6813% |
0.6762% |
|
Alyssa B. - Arizona |
0.7629% |
0.5226% |
0.5056% |
0.6297% |
0.6264% |
|
Dan P. - Connecticut |
0.6294% |
0.5272% |
0.5451% |
0.6094% |
0.5855% |
|
Mario M. - Tennessee |
0.4593% |
0.5010% |
0.5798% |
0.5803% |
0.7751% |
|
Irene H. #4 - Arizona |
0.8179% |
0.4715% |
0.3474% |
0.4443% |
0.7389% |
|
Larry G. #4 - Tennessee |
0.8275% |
0.1595% |
0.2764% |
0.7378% |
0.7123% |
|
Deanna T. - Purdue |
0.8194% |
0.5925% |
0.5386% |
0.3510% |
0.3934% |
|
Howard S. #2 - Purdue |
0.3265% |
0.2945% |
0.5941% |
0.6109% |
0.8583% |
|
Scott K. #1 - Tennessee |
0.3464% |
0.6261% |
0.7118% |
0.5221% |
0.4527% |
|
Dan Mck. - Purdue |
0.3174% |
0.5376% |
0.4532% |
0.6658% |
0.5989% |
|
Adam E. - North Carolina |
0.2823% |
0.5107% |
0.5747% |
0.6190% |
0.5781% |
|
Ryan Green - Houston |
0.1417% |
0.4890% |
0.6393% |
0.6501% |
0.6352% |
|
Daniel E. - Arizona |
0.4013% |
0.7022% |
0.4260% |
0.4697% |
0.4836% |
|
Szecho L. - Houston |
0.5727% |
0.4649% |
0.4418% |
0.4912% |
0.4600% |
|
Rob I. - Arizona |
0.5168% |
0.3418% |
0.3860% |
0.4046% |
0.6812% |
|
Wayne D. #1 - North Carolina |
0.3601% |
0.3296% |
0.4660% |
0.5468% |
0.6066% |
|
Dawn T. - North Carolina |
0.2731% |
0.2884% |
0.4150% |
0.6638% |
0.6673% |
|
Matt W. - Arizona |
0.2029% |
0.4400% |
0.3850% |
0.5386% |
0.6658% |
|
April K. - Purdue |
0.0366% |
0.3571% |
0.5951% |
0.5915% |
0.6322% |
|
Patrick McC. #1 - Connecticut |
0.3159% |
0.3632% |
0.3627% |
0.5357% |
0.5878% |
|
Miles D. - Arizona |
0.2655% |
0.3693% |
0.6295% |
0.3859% |
0.4506% |
|
Brandon B. #1 - Connecticut |
0.1401% |
0.3311% |
0.3547% |
0.6391% |
0.5826% |
|
Pete J. #4 - Tennessee |
0.1999% |
0.3138% |
0.5936% |
0.4278% |
0.4583% |
|
Eric G. - Houston |
0.2955% |
0.3352% |
0.4087% |
0.4570% |
0.4828% |
|
Elizabeth N. #1 - Connecticut |
0.0961% |
0.3532% |
0.4481% |
0.4745% |
0.5445% |
|
Brooke M. #2 - Arizona |
0.2736% |
0.4384% |
0.3510% |
0.3446% |
0.4891% |
|
Gigi I. - Arizona |
0.0656% |
0.7838% |
0.1213% |
0.3782% |
0.5241% |
|
Brent S. #2 - Connecticut |
0.0977% |
0.3133% |
0.4656% |
0.6015% |
0.3911% |
|
CAAT #5 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.3332% |
0.4588% |
0.4789% |
0.5929% |
|
Stefon K. - Purdue |
0.2406% |
0.3585% |
0.3790% |
0.3784% |
0.4849% |
|
Derek H. - Connecticut |
0.3050% |
0.3071% |
0.3334% |
0.3990% |
0.4697% |
|
Daisy N. #5 - North Carolina |
0.1129% |
0.4049% |
0.4105% |
0.4289% |
0.4179% |
|
Irene H. #2 - Houston |
0.2335% |
0.2698% |
0.3120% |
0.4204% |
0.4665% |
|
Dirk F. - Purdue |
0.2192% |
0.2480% |
0.2890% |
0.4326% |
0.4884% |
|
Wayne D. #3 - Purdue |
0.2424% |
0.3092% |
0.3154% |
0.3512% |
0.4082% |
|
Michelle L. #2 - North Carolina |
0.1282% |
0.2645% |
0.2492% |
0.4801% |
0.4623% |
|
Mason A. #2 - North Carolina |
0.1605% |
0.2174% |
0.3599% |
0.4375% |
0.3749% |
|
Becky H. - Purdue |
0.1938% |
0.2375% |
0.2413% |
0.4246% |
0.4409% |
|
Josh V. - Connecticut |
0.1658% |
0.1670% |
0.3759% |
0.4177% |
0.3804% |
|
Kealoha G. - North Carolina |
0.0504% |
0.1836% |
0.4190% |
0.4589% |
0.3318% |
|
Chris L. #4 - North Carolina |
0.2148% |
0.2371% |
0.2658% |
0.3040% |
0.4036% |
|
Marc R. - Arizona |
0.0702% |
0.3113% |
0.4532% |
0.2930% |
0.2965% |
|
Brad E. - Purdue |
0.0580% |
0.2101% |
0.3268% |
0.3886% |
0.3887% |
|
Jacob A. - Iowa State |
0.0427% |
0.3235% |
0.3448% |
0.2823% |
0.3764% |
|
Hutch H. #2 - Houston |
0.1704% |
0.1851% |
0.2398% |
0.3126% |
0.4401% |
|
Daisy N. #10 - Arizona |
0.0610% |
0.2635% |
0.4026% |
0.3459% |
0.2523% |
|
Dave A. - Purdue |
0.1602% |
0.2528% |
0.3077% |
0.2874% |
0.3113% |
|
Mitchell S. - North Carolina |
Sweet
16 |
0.3677% |
0.2566% |
0.3519% |
0.3131% |
|
Joe C. - Houston |
0.0275% |
0.2024% |
0.3614% |
0.3723% |
0.3035% |
|
Nate R. - Houston |
0.1633% |
0.2314% |
0.2930% |
0.3352% |
0.2341% |
|
Michael S. #1 - Connecticut |
0.1762% |
0.2186% |
0.2104% |
0.2833% |
0.3303% |
|
Dylan B. - Houston |
0.1414% |
0.2793% |
0.2047% |
0.3295% |
0.2576% |
|
Bryce O. - Houston |
0.1124% |
0.1714% |
0.2663% |
0.2630% |
0.3820% |
|
Dan Dug. #2 - North Carolina |
0.0394% |
0.0984% |
0.1818% |
0.3564% |
0.5090% |
|
Chris L. #3 - North Carolina |
0.1709% |
0.2106% |
0.2997% |
0.2482% |
0.2164% |
|
Damien R. #3 - Houston |
0.3693% |
0.2945% |
0.1785% |
0.2024% |
0.1005% |
|
John E. #2 - Purdue |
0.1678% |
0.1912% |
0.1714% |
0.2561% |
0.3525% |
|
Kevin F. #2 - Purdue |
0.2045% |
0.1778% |
0.2394% |
0.2503% |
0.2551% |
|
Kirt R. #1 - Houston |
0.1083% |
0.1846% |
0.2808% |
0.2851% |
0.2641% |
|
Brent E. #3 - Connecticut |
0.0832% |
0.1969% |
0.2554% |
0.2810% |
0.3043% |
|
Brent E. #4 - Connecticut |
0.0832% |
0.1969% |
0.2554% |
0.2810% |
0.3043% |
|
Mary Lou H. - Houston |
0.1434% |
0.1824% |
0.2222% |
0.2264% |
0.3333% |
|
Mike N. - Connecticut |
0.2090% |
0.1887% |
0.1882% |
0.2225% |
0.2958% |
|
Gary W. - Arizona |
0.0488% |
0.3296% |
0.1648% |
0.3372% |
0.2146% |
|
Ken Pom - Connecticut |
0.1060% |
0.2556% |
0.2218% |
0.2140% |
0.2818% |
|
Adam S. - North Carolina |
0.1434% |
0.1831% |
0.2579% |
0.2274% |
0.2449% |
|
Moochie #5 - Connecticut |
0.1068% |
0.2762% |
0.2007% |
0.1901% |
0.2473% |
|
Scott K. #2 - Houston |
0.1775% |
0.1429% |
0.1630% |
0.2503% |
0.2746% |
|
Scott H. #2 - Houston |
0.1709% |
0.1676% |
0.1778% |
0.2472% |
0.2330% |
|
Brent E. #1 - Houston |
0.0562% |
0.1523% |
0.2052% |
0.2234% |
0.3377% |
|
Missy W. #2 - Tennessee |
0.1221% |
0.2172% |
0.1999% |
0.2462% |
0.1790% |
|
Harrell R. #3 - Tennessee |
0.0275% |
0.1228% |
0.1671% |
0.2678% |
0.3777% |
|
Kristina H. - Kentucky |
0.0122% |
0.0763% |
0.1910% |
0.2823% |
0.2465% |
|
Brett W. - Arizona |
0.0142% |
0.1617% |
0.2085% |
0.2436% |
0.1724% |
|
John Mack #2 - Purdue |
0.0427% |
0.1277% |
0.1956% |
0.2502% |
0.1590% |
|
Nick I. - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
0.1470% |
0.2627% |
0.2065% |
0.1503% |
|
Daisy N. #9 - Houston |
0.0407% |
0.0989% |
0.1962% |
0.1825% |
0.2236% |
|
Kristin G. - Houston |
0.0702% |
0.1234% |
0.1484% |
0.1697% |
0.2118% |
|
Brooklynn B. - Purdue |
0.0262% |
0.1113% |
0.1670% |
0.1647% |
0.2483% |
|
Damien R. #1 - Houston |
0.0102% |
0.0966% |
0.1688% |
0.2111% |
0.2229% |
|
Rob C. - Connecticut |
0.0122% |
0.2289% |
0.2391% |
0.1104% |
0.1170% |
|
Dan L. #2 - Purdue |
0.0748% |
0.0753% |
0.1038% |
0.2218% |
0.2282% |
|
Luis B. #2 - Connecticut |
0.0702% |
0.0961% |
0.1724% |
0.1849% |
0.1778% |
|
Brandon H. #2 - Arizona |
0.0427% |
0.0763% |
0.1160% |
0.1785% |
0.2869% |
|
Irene H. #5 - Tennessee |
0.0061% |
0.0239% |
0.0854% |
0.2813% |
0.2797% |
|
Irene H. #1 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.0916% |
0.1104% |
0.1752% |
0.2884% |
|
Matt N. - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
0.0356% |
0.1348% |
0.2266% |
0.2533% |
|
Irene H. #6 - North Carolina |
Sweet
16 |
0.1790% |
0.1409% |
0.1450% |
0.1811% |
|
Tyler C. - Houston |
0.0819% |
0.1330% |
0.1315% |
0.1419% |
0.1432% |
|
Gutless Bracket - Connecticut |
0.0417% |
0.0980% |
0.1149% |
0.1385% |
0.1864% |
|
Brett G. (Quinnie) - Arizona |
0.0041% |
0.0320% |
0.0885% |
0.2853% |
0.0913% |
|
Wayne D. #4 - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
0.0613% |
0.1144% |
0.1688% |
0.1565% |
|
Harrell R. #1 - North Carolina |
0.0732% |
0.0778% |
0.0926% |
0.1282% |
0.1272% |
|
Michelle L. #1 - Connecticut |
0.0610% |
0.0656% |
0.1231% |
0.1027% |
0.1349% |
|
Connor W. - Houston |
Sweet
16 |
0.0977% |
0.0656% |
0.1617% |
0.1475% |
|
Zach V. - Connecticut |
0.0519% |
0.0168% |
0.0778% |
0.1938% |
0.1317% |
|
Klei R. #1 - Houston |
0.0305% |
0.0806% |
0.1117% |
0.1025% |
0.1351% |
|
John A. #2 - Houston |
0.1022% |
0.0671% |
0.0885% |
0.0924% |
0.1100% |
|
Luis B. #1 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.0336% |
0.1012% |
0.1414% |
0.1767% |
|
Tim Dz. #2 - Arizona |
0.0270% |
0.0366% |
0.0765% |
0.1200% |
0.1809% |
|
Melody K. - Connecticut |
0.0580% |
0.0732% |
0.0926% |
0.1088% |
0.1079% |
|
Andy L. - Purdue |
0.0153% |
0.0834% |
0.0824% |
0.1054% |
0.1482% |
|
Damien R. #2 - Connecticut |
0.0303% |
0.0713% |
0.0824% |
0.0975% |
0.1451% |
|
Steve Dz. #1 - Iowa State |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.1221% |
0.2991% |
|
Ryan W. - Kentucky |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0183% |
0.1541% |
0.2426% |
|
Ryan G. - Purdue |
0.0305% |
0.0763% |
0.0809% |
0.0819% |
0.1406% |
|
D. Mag #1 - Auburn |
Sweet
16 |
0.0061% |
0.0544% |
0.1094% |
0.2294% |
|
Mike V. - Connecticut |
0.0366% |
0.0656% |
0.0626% |
0.1002% |
0.1338% |
|
Chris L. #2 - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
0.0437% |
0.0997% |
0.1063% |
0.1389% |
|
Harrell R. #4 - Iowa State |
Sweet
16 |
0.0153% |
0.0305% |
0.1205% |
0.2182% |
|
Andrew D. #2 - Houston |
0.0183% |
0.0557% |
0.0732% |
0.0882% |
0.1460% |
|
Veronica G. - Houston |
0.0264% |
0.0824% |
0.0417% |
0.1114% |
0.1160% |
|
CAAT #3 - Connecticut |
0.0119% |
0.0287% |
0.0752% |
0.0970% |
0.1617% |
|
CAAT #4 - Connecticut |
0.0119% |
0.0287% |
0.0752% |
0.0970% |
0.1617% |
|
Luis B. #5 - Connecticut |
0.0119% |
0.0287% |
0.0752% |
0.0970% |
0.1617% |
|
David F. #2 - Connecticut |
0.0303% |
0.0445% |
0.0612% |
0.0931% |
0.1373% |
|
John A. #1 - Houston |
0.0519% |
0.0575% |
0.0806% |
0.0839% |
0.0909% |
|
Brad R. - Connecticut |
0.0676% |
0.0589% |
0.0709% |
0.0895% |
0.0741% |
|
Pete J. #3 - Houston |
0.0183% |
0.0470% |
0.0792% |
0.0911% |
0.1193% |
|
Off Efficiency - Connecticut |
0.0431% |
0.0741% |
0.0697% |
0.0766% |
0.0872% |
|
Danielle A. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.0305% |
0.0783% |
0.1064% |
0.1267% |
|
Jared V. - Connecticut |
0.0427% |
0.0376% |
0.0860% |
0.0872% |
0.0853% |
|
Luis B. #3 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.0671% |
0.0636% |
0.0919% |
0.1159% |
|
Niren D. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.0207% |
0.0485% |
0.1089% |
0.1512% |
|
Finn D. - Kansas |
Sweet
16 |
0.0244% |
0.0745% |
0.0799% |
0.1188% |
|
D. Mag #2 - North Carolina |
Sweet
16 |
0.0086% |
0.0379% |
0.0793% |
0.1628% |
|
Valerie D. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0122% |
0.1312% |
0.1389% |
|
Daisy N. #2 - Purdue |
0.0046% |
0.0521% |
0.0636% |
0.0693% |
0.0904% |
|
Marshmellow (Nik B.) - Howard /
Wagner |
0.0046% |
0.0621% |
0.0374% |
0.0854% |
0.0763% |
|
Brooke M. #1 - Houston |
Sweet
16 |
0.0488% |
0.0610% |
0.0549% |
0.0977% |
|
Brandon H. #1 - Houston |
0.0142% |
0.0422% |
0.0824% |
0.0559% |
0.0631% |
|
Roth W. - Houston |
0.0168% |
0.0427% |
0.0387% |
0.0805% |
0.0752% |
|
Patrick McC. #2 - Connecticut |
0.0183% |
0.0366% |
0.0524% |
0.0562% |
0.0840% |
|
Kiah H. #2 - Texas Tech |
0.0092% |
0.0376% |
0.0702% |
0.0653% |
0.0629% |
|
Eric S. #1 - Houston |
0.0183% |
0.0229% |
0.0671% |
0.0626% |
0.0488% |
|
Luis B. #4 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.0326% |
0.0353% |
0.0549% |
0.0957% |
|
Paul K. #1 - North Carolina |
0.0122% |
0.0229% |
0.0336% |
0.0427% |
0.0916% |
|
Grant F. - Houston |
Sweet
16 |
0.0244% |
0.0427% |
0.0448% |
0.0615% |
|
Irene H. #3 - Purdue |
0.0132% |
0.0234% |
0.0300% |
0.0448% |
0.0575% |
|
Tim Dz. #1 - Connecticut |
0.0031% |
0.0137% |
0.0498% |
0.0453% |
0.0473% |
|
Daisy N. #7 - Kentucky |
Sweet
16 |
0.0025% |
0.0148% |
0.0529% |
0.0829% |
|
Brent S. #1 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.0153% |
0.0427% |
0.0473% |
0.0458% |
|
Josiah T. - North Carolina |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0122% |
0.1297% |
|
Guillermo V. - Connecticut |
0.0085% |
0.0217% |
0.0331% |
0.0386% |
0.0359% |
|
Dennis R. - Connecticut |
0.0175% |
0.0237% |
0.0242% |
0.0336% |
0.0270% |
|
Larry G. #3 - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
0.0061% |
0.0254% |
0.0224% |
0.0712% |
|
Larry G. #1 - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0366% |
0.0336% |
0.0516% |
|
D. Mag #3 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.0183% |
0.0427% |
0.0275% |
0.0320% |
|
Jaxon S. - Purdue |
0.0031% |
0.0056% |
0.0224% |
0.0320% |
0.0514% |
|
Noah G. - Kentucky |
Sweet
16 |
0.0153% |
0.0198% |
0.0320% |
0.0397% |
|
Kyle V. - Houston |
Sweet
16 |
0.0183% |
0.0183% |
0.0275% |
0.0417% |
|
Pat K. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0214% |
0.0371% |
0.0422% |
|
Amber D. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.0076% |
0.0198% |
0.0275% |
0.0387% |
|
Jay H. #1 - Houston |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0122% |
0.0778% |
|
Pete J. #5 - Auburn |
Sweet
16 |
0.0183% |
0.0153% |
0.0183% |
0.0359% |
|
Moochie #4 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0244% |
0.0626% |
|
Brandon B. #2 - North Carolina |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0264% |
0.0142% |
0.0435% |
|
James G. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.0122% |
0.0285% |
0.0210% |
0.0222% |
|
Chris M. - Houston |
Sweet
16 |
0.0061% |
0.0092% |
0.0427% |
0.0244% |
|
Carlo G. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
0.0076% |
0.0122% |
0.0229% |
0.0392% |
|
Jim D. #1 - Connecticut |
0.0092% |
0.0163% |
0.0153% |
0.0138% |
0.0192% |
|
Craig G. - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0092% |
0.0641% |
|
Brett G. (Upset) - Connecticut |
0.0061% |
0.0122% |
0.0244% |
0.0183% |
0.0061% |
|
Eric V. - Auburn |
Sweet
16 |
0.0122% |
0.0107% |
0.0169% |
0.0233% |
|
Brett G. (Devils) - Houston |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0061% |
0.0061% |
0.0417% |
|
Jim D. #2 - Houston |
Sweet
16 |
0.0031% |
0.0198% |
0.0061% |
0.0198% |
|
Irene H. #7 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0122% |
0.0183% |
0.0153% |
|
Colston W. - Connecticut |
0.0061% |
0.0102% |
0.0081% |
0.0118% |
0.0093% |
|
Dan Dug. #1 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0122% |
0.0153% |
0.0076% |
|
Tomas L. - Houston |
Sweet
16 |
0.0023% |
0.0053% |
0.0084% |
0.0130% |
|
Howard S. #1 - Auburn |
Sweet
16 |
0.0061% |
0.0076% |
0.0046% |
0.0089% |
|
Daisy N. #1 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0020% |
0.0048% |
0.0153% |
|
Chris L. #1 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0213% |
|
Jay B. - ESPN - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0213% |
|
Jay H. #2 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0213% |
|
Klei R. #2 - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0020% |
0.0142% |
|
Scarlett H. - Houston |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0031% |
0.0076% |
0.0031% |
|
DESGRU8 (Dan Dz.) - North
Carolina |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0031% |
0.0076% |
|
Seth D. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0031% |
0.0061% |
|
Larry G. #2 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0050% |
|
Baily T. - South Carolina |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0015% |
0.0015% |
0.0010% |
|
Pete J. #6 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
0.0010% |
|
Adalyn H. - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Ali A. #1 - Washington State |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Ali A. #2 - Arizona |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Amanda R. - Wisconsin |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Brandie H. - Nebraska |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
CAAT #1 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
CAAT #2 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
D. Mag #4 - Illinois |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Daisy N. #11 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Damien R. #4 - Long Beach State |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
David F. #1 - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Dianna A. - Kansas |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Elizabeth N. #2 - North Carolina |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Elizabeth P. #3 - Kentucky |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Faye N. - Texas A&M |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Henry A. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Hutch H. #1 - Kansas |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Josh C. - Auburn |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Karen C. - Kentucky |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Kevin F. #1 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Klei R. #3 - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Mark B. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Mason A. #1 - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Matt M. - Auburn |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Melissa M. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Moochie #1 - North Carolina |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Moochie #3 - James Madison |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Mustard (Nikolajs B.) - Oregon |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Noah N. - Kentucky |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Pete J. #2 - Kentucky |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Shanky G. - Connecticut |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Shawn D. - Purdue |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Stephen C. - Nebraska |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Wayne D. #2 - Auburn |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
|
Wayne D. #5 - Houston |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
Sweet
16 |
I will be sending out eliminations later this week. Those will tell you that you need a specific
outcome of the game in order to stay alive for the place indicated. If your team loses, you are eliminated. If your team wins, your odds double. Fluctuations can happen without eliminating
or doubling as well. Occasionally a game
will not effect your odds of winning either way, but with a tournament shaping
up like this one is, that seems less and less likely.
For those of you who can still get 1st place, I’ll
try to send out who you need to root for in the next round tomorrow. It will say something like: Bracket Name has
100 scenarios where they finish in 1st place. Team X wins their next game in 65% of
them. That means you want Team X to win
to increase your chances of winning. If
it says 100%, that is a must-win game for you.
You want as few of those as you can get.
The winner of this pool will probably win 6-8 of those types of games
this season. Last year, Charlotte N. ran
away with this pool, and even then, she had at least 5 must-win games that she
won.
Good luck everyone!!!!!
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