Day IV preview

The more I think about yesterday, the more profoundly disappointed I am that there were essentially no upsets.  Today looks like it might be harder to find upsets.  The average point spread yesterday was 6.43 points.  Today, it is 7.81.  That means favorites are even more likely to win today.  Yesterday, 7 of the 8 games had opening lines below 7 points.  Today, that number is 4.  I’m hoping that means that the upsets will be bigger shocked to the pool.  That would be more fun.

I’m guessing most people don’t remember the 2019 March Madness brackets, but that was te year Virginia won it all.  It was also the last time all 8 1 and 2 seeds made the Sweet 16.  That year, not only did all 1s and 2s make it that year, so did all the 3s, 2 4s and a 5.  The only non-Top 5 seed was Oregon at 12.  That seemed pretty chalky at the time too, but we would up with a Final 4 with a 1, 2, 3 & 5 so you never know.  Strange things can still happen – maybe just a little later than I would like.

Here are the details for the first 4 games today

Game 41

Marquette v Colorado

Vegas Line: Marquette -3.5

Picks for Marquette: 198

Picks for Colorado: 27

Picks for Other: 49

Marquette is definitely the #2 seed most people think is vulnerable.  They did look kind of vulnerable in the first round, but still wound up winning by a pretty comfortable margin.  When you have 4 TVs going with 4 different games on, sometimes you don’t pay super close attention to all the games.  I remember looking at the Marquette / Western Kentucky score and thinking, “Ooohhh, we may have an upset” then looking again 5 minutes later and there wasn’t much reason to turn up the volume on that game because it was out of reach.

This game also represents the game that Vegas thinks will be the closest all day.  3.5 is the lowest point spread of all 8 games today.  Seems reasonable.  Colorado has been playing pretty good, and Play-in winners do have a decent track record in the tournament.  I’m hoping for at least a good game here.

Game 42

Purdue v Utah State

Vegas Line: Purdue -11.5

Picks for Purdue: 252

Picks for Utah State: 11

Picks for Other: 11

I thought I might be putting on the Utah State shirt today, but there is one game that is a bigger point spread than this.  More on that one later.  For the first 2 games of the day, they only show one game in its entirety at a time.  The first game promises to be the closest of the day.  This game features consensus Player of the Year, Zach Edey.  If you’ve been following my blog for a while you know that I like 2 types of players above all – short guys that shoot volume 3s and freakishly tall guys.  Zach Edey is definitely in the latter category.  He’s huge.  He may be too slow to play in the NBA, which is what happens a lot with guys like this, but NBAs loss is the NCAAs gain.  He’s really good and fun to watch.

I also want Purdue to win because I love the redemption story arc – and because 2 of my 3 brackets have them winning.  Tough break for Utah State.  As a Mountain West school, I still want to see them be successful.  If they win here, I won’t be that angry about it.

Game 43

Duke v James Madison

Vegas Line: Duke -7.5

Picks for Duke: 163

Picks for James Madison: 35

Picks for Other: 76

The “Other” category here is mostly Wisconsin.  If you had Wisconsin here, you definitely want James Madison to win.  I definitely wand James Madison to win.  I can’t stand Duke.  Their teams have been as hate-inspiring as in years past, but Duke is still Duke.  I love it when thy get knocked out of the tournament.  I think most of that stems from how successful they were in the late 80s and 90s when I was in High School and college.  I paid even more attention to college basketball then, and it seemed like Duke was a #1 seed every season.

I know nothing about James Madison.  He was a president.  I don’t know if he founded this school or if it was just named after him.  I know they handled Wisconsin pretty well.  They didn’t fluke into a win there.  I’m hoping they can repeat the performance today.

Game 44

Baylor v Clemson

Vegas Line: Baylor -4.5

Picks for Baylor: 158

Picks for Clemson: 25

Picks for Other: 91

This game is a 3/6 matchup, so why were the “Other” picks so high?  Remember that Clemson was a trendy pick to lose to New Mexico.  Well, they pounded New Mexico in the first round, so all that trendiness is out the window.  I’m kind of hoping for a Clemson upset here.  Why not?  They can play the disrespect card for as long as they want.  Also, other than Virginia, am I crazy for thinking that the ACC is having a pretty good tournament?  Duke, North Carolina and NC State are all still alive.  I guess if you use my measuring stick of upsets, they are only 1-0.  NC State upset Texas Tech, and thus far no team has lost to a lower seed (Virginia lost the play-in game), so maybe they are just slightly overperforming.

You know my saying about Baylor:  “Baylor will always let you down”.  This game is really their last chance to do that, since they won’t be favored against Arizona in the next round if they win.

Good luck everyone!!!!!