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Well, I’ve good news and I have bad news for some people. The good news is that I was able to calculate the probabilities for getting 1st place. The bad news is that some 96 entries have no path to winning this thing.
Remember that I am paying out 5 places, so just because you
are out for first, you may not be out for any of the other places. I’ll figure those odds out tomorrow. This is just for first place. Also, you may be still be alive to win one of
the 4 regions. That’s somewhat
independent of this calculation.
So, here are the unfortunate 96 that can no longer get 1st
place:
|
Adalyn H. - Purdue |
|
Ali A. #1 - Washington State |
|
Ali A. #2 - Arizona |
|
Amanda R. - Wisconsin |
|
Amber D. - Connecticut |
|
Baily T. - South Carolina |
|
Brandie H. - Nebraska |
|
Brandon B. #2 - North Carolina |
|
Brent S. #1 - Connecticut |
|
Brett G. (Devils) - Houston |
|
Brooke M. #1 - Houston |
|
CAAT #1 - Connecticut |
|
CAAT #2 - Connecticut |
|
CAAT #5 - Connecticut |
|
Carlo G. - Connecticut |
|
Chris L. #1 - Connecticut |
|
Chris L. #2 - Purdue |
|
Chris M. - Houston |
|
Connor W. - Houston |
|
Craig G. - Purdue |
|
D. Mag #1 - Auburn |
|
D. Mag #2 - North Carolina |
|
D. Mag #3 - Connecticut |
|
D. Mag #4 - Illinois |
|
Daisy N. #1 - Connecticut |
|
Daisy N. #11 - Connecticut |
|
Daisy N. #6 - Iowa State |
|
Daisy N. #7 - Kentucky |
|
Damien R. #4 - Long Beach State |
|
Dan Dug. #1 - Connecticut |
|
Danielle A. - Connecticut |
|
David F. #1 - Purdue |
|
DESGRU8 (Dan Dz.) - North
Carolina |
|
Dianna A. - Kansas |
|
Elizabeth N. #2 - North Carolina |
|
Elizabeth P. #3 - Kentucky |
|
Eric V. - Auburn |
|
Faye N. - Texas A&M |
|
Finn D. - Kansas |
|
Grant F. - Houston |
|
Harrell R. #4 - Iowa State |
|
Henry A. - Connecticut |
|
Howard S. #1 - Auburn |
|
Hutch H. #1 - Kansas |
|
Irene H. #1 - Connecticut |
|
Irene H. #6 - North Carolina |
|
Irene H. #7 - Connecticut |
|
James G. - Connecticut |
|
Jared B. - Iowa State |
|
Jay B. - ESPN - Connecticut |
|
Jay H. #1 - Houston |
|
Jay H. #2 - Connecticut |
|
Jim D. #2 - Houston |
|
Josh C. - Auburn |
|
Josiah T. - North Carolina |
|
Karen C. - Kentucky |
|
Kevin F. #1 - Connecticut |
|
Klei R. #2 - Purdue |
|
Klei R. #3 - Purdue |
|
Kyle V. - Houston |
|
Larry G. #1 - Purdue |
|
Larry G. #2 - Connecticut |
|
Larry G. #3 - Purdue |
|
Luis B. #1 - Connecticut |
|
Luis B. #3 - Connecticut |
|
Luis B. #4 - Connecticut |
|
Mark B. - Connecticut |
|
Mason A. #1 - Connecticut |
|
Matt M. - Auburn |
|
Matt N. - Purdue |
|
Melissa M. - Connecticut |
|
Mitchell S. - North Carolina |
|
Moochie #1 - North Carolina |
|
Moochie #3 - James Madison |
|
Moochie #4 - Connecticut |
|
Mustard (Nikolajs B.) - Oregon |
|
Nick I. - Purdue |
|
Niren D. - Connecticut |
|
Noah G. - Kentucky |
|
Noah N. - Kentucky |
|
Pat K. - Connecticut |
|
Pete J. #2 - Kentucky |
|
Pete J. #5 - Auburn |
|
Pete J. #6 - Connecticut |
|
Ryan W. - Kentucky |
|
Scarlett H. - Houston |
|
Seth D. - Connecticut |
|
Shanky G. - Connecticut |
|
Shawn D. - Purdue |
|
Stephen C. - Nebraska |
|
Steve Dz. #1 - Iowa State |
|
Tomas L. - Houston |
|
Valerie D. - Connecticut |
|
Wayne D. #2 - Auburn |
|
Wayne D. #4 - Purdue |
|
Wayne D. #5 - Houston |
..and here are the initial probabilities of winning the pool….
|
Name |
1st Place |
|
Legend of Zelli - Duke |
6.2121% |
|
Michelle L. #5 - Alabama |
5.5054% |
|
Harrell R. #2 - NC State |
5.1010% |
|
John N. - San Diego State |
4.9235% |
|
Kim F. - Creighton |
4.7974% |
|
Missy W. #1 - Marquette |
4.4261% |
|
Brian K. - Illinois |
3.5853% |
|
John Mack #1 - Connecticut |
2.8208% |
|
Constance McA. - Gonzaga |
2.5553% |
|
Moochie #2 - Tennessee |
2.1820% |
|
Brett G. (Sleeper) - Iowa State |
1.9404% |
|
Dustin B. - Creighton |
1.7639% |
|
Paul W. - North Carolina |
1.6342% |
|
Daisy N. #3 - Houston |
1.5803% |
|
Tim N. - Marquette |
1.4755% |
|
Vang L. - Iowa State |
1.4486% |
|
Mike W. - Iowa State |
1.4353% |
|
Chrissy I. - Arizona |
1.3957% |
|
Def Efficiency - Iowa State |
1.3616% |
|
Ally H. - Purdue |
1.2604% |
|
Chris E. - Marquette |
1.2070% |
|
Jim W. - North Carolina |
1.1765% |
|
Michelle L. #4 - Purdue |
1.1765% |
|
Steve Dz. #2 - Illinois |
1.0681% |
|
Charlotte N. - San Diego State |
1.0147% |
|
Scott H. #1 - Connecticut |
0.9918% |
|
Cicely K. - North Carolina |
0.9811% |
|
Eric S. #2 - Purdue |
0.9275% |
|
Matt H. - Connecticut |
0.9125% |
|
Paul K. #2 - Illinois |
0.9079% |
|
Daisy N. #12 - Tennessee |
0.8408% |
|
Larry G. #4 - Tennessee |
0.8275% |
|
Chun W. #2 - North Carolina |
0.8209% |
|
Deanna T. - Purdue |
0.8194% |
|
Beau H. - Alabama |
0.8179% |
|
Irene H. #4 - Arizona |
0.8179% |
|
Daisy N. #8 - Tennessee |
0.8123% |
|
Mark A. - Arizona |
0.7947% |
|
Michelle L. #3 - Houston |
0.7884% |
|
Kiah H. #1 - Houston |
0.7640% |
|
Alyssa B. - Arizona |
0.7629% |
|
Emily T. - Arizona |
0.7347% |
|
Kirt R. #2 - Purdue |
0.7281% |
|
Rich F. - Marquette |
0.7278% |
|
Derek B. - North Carolina |
0.7085% |
|
Andrew D. #1 - Houston |
0.6510% |
|
Dan P. - Connecticut |
0.6294% |
|
Michael S. #2 - Purdue |
0.6281% |
|
Brent E. #2 - North Carolina |
0.6147% |
|
Szecho L. - Houston |
0.5727% |
|
Elliot N. - Connecticut |
0.5417% |
|
Jackson I. - Tennessee |
0.5366% |
|
Rob I. - Arizona |
0.5168% |
|
Ben S. - Connecticut |
0.4954% |
|
Mario M. - Tennessee |
0.4593% |
|
Daisy N. #4 - Connecticut |
0.4389% |
|
John E. #1 - Houston |
0.4341% |
|
Daniel E. - Arizona |
0.4013% |
|
Chun W. #1 - Tennessee |
0.3998% |
|
Dan L. #1 - Tennessee |
0.3962% |
|
Damien R. #3 - Houston |
0.3693% |
|
Wayne D. #1 - North Carolina |
0.3601% |
|
Pete J. #1 - Connecticut |
0.3565% |
|
Scott K. #1 - Tennessee |
0.3464% |
|
Chris T. - North Carolina |
0.3385% |
|
Howard S. #2 - Purdue |
0.3265% |
|
Dan Mck. - Purdue |
0.3174% |
|
Patrick McC. #1 - Connecticut |
0.3159% |
|
Derek H. - Connecticut |
0.3050% |
|
Eric G. - Houston |
0.2955% |
|
Adam E. - North Carolina |
0.2823% |
|
Brooke M. #2 - Arizona |
0.2736% |
|
Dawn T. - North Carolina |
0.2731% |
|
Miles D. - Arizona |
0.2655% |
|
Wayne D. #3 - Purdue |
0.2424% |
|
Stefon K. - Purdue |
0.2406% |
|
Irene H. #2 - Houston |
0.2335% |
|
Bryce S. - Creighton |
0.2289% |
|
Dirk F. - Purdue |
0.2192% |
|
Chris L. #4 - North Carolina |
0.2148% |
|
Mike N. - Connecticut |
0.2090% |
|
Kevin F. #2 - Purdue |
0.2045% |
|
Matt W. - Arizona |
0.2029% |
|
Pete J. #4 - Tennessee |
0.1999% |
|
Greg R. - Purdue |
0.1984% |
|
Becky H. - Purdue |
0.1938% |
|
Scott K. #2 - Houston |
0.1775% |
|
Michael S. #1 - Connecticut |
0.1762% |
|
Chris L. #3 - North Carolina |
0.1709% |
|
Scott H. #2 - Houston |
0.1709% |
|
Hutch H. #2 - Houston |
0.1704% |
|
John E. #2 - Purdue |
0.1678% |
|
Josh V. - Connecticut |
0.1658% |
|
Nate R. - Houston |
0.1633% |
|
Mason A. #2 - North Carolina |
0.1605% |
|
Dave A. - Purdue |
0.1602% |
|
Adam S. - North Carolina |
0.1434% |
|
Mary Lou H. - Houston |
0.1434% |
|
Ryan Green - Houston |
0.1417% |
|
Dylan B. - Houston |
0.1414% |
|
Brandon B. #1 - Connecticut |
0.1401% |
|
Michelle L. #2 - North Carolina |
0.1282% |
|
Missy W. #2 - Tennessee |
0.1221% |
|
Daisy N. #5 - North Carolina |
0.1129% |
|
Bryce O. - Houston |
0.1124% |
|
Kirt R. #1 - Houston |
0.1083% |
|
Moochie #5 - Connecticut |
0.1068% |
|
Ken Pom - Connecticut |
0.1060% |
|
John A. #2 - Houston |
0.1022% |
|
Brent S. #2 - Connecticut |
0.0977% |
|
Elizabeth N. #1 - Connecticut |
0.0961% |
|
Brent E. #3 - Connecticut |
0.0832% |
|
Brent E. #4 - Connecticut |
0.0832% |
|
Tyler C. - Houston |
0.0819% |
|
Dan L. #2 - Purdue |
0.0748% |
|
Harrell R. #1 - North Carolina |
0.0732% |
|
Kristin G. - Houston |
0.0702% |
|
Luis B. #2 - Connecticut |
0.0702% |
|
Marc R. - Arizona |
0.0702% |
|
Brad R. - Connecticut |
0.0676% |
|
Gigi I. - Arizona |
0.0656% |
|
Daisy N. #10 - Arizona |
0.0610% |
|
Michelle L. #1 - Connecticut |
0.0610% |
|
Brad E. - Purdue |
0.0580% |
|
Melody K. - Connecticut |
0.0580% |
|
Brent E. #1 - Houston |
0.0562% |
|
John A. #1 - Houston |
0.0519% |
|
Zach V. - Connecticut |
0.0519% |
|
Kealoha G. - North Carolina |
0.0504% |
|
Gary W. - Arizona |
0.0488% |
|
Off Efficiency - Connecticut |
0.0431% |
|
Brandon H. #2 - Arizona |
0.0427% |
|
Jacob A. - Iowa State |
0.0427% |
|
Jared V. - Connecticut |
0.0427% |
|
John Mack #2 - Purdue |
0.0427% |
|
Gutless Bracket - Connecticut |
0.0417% |
|
Daisy N. #9 - Houston |
0.0407% |
|
Dan Dug. #2 - North Carolina |
0.0394% |
|
April K. - Purdue |
0.0366% |
|
Mike V. - Connecticut |
0.0366% |
|
Christopher K. - Illinois |
0.0361% |
|
Klei R. #1 - Houston |
0.0305% |
|
Ryan G. - Purdue |
0.0305% |
|
Damien R. #2 - Connecticut |
0.0303% |
|
David F. #2 - Connecticut |
0.0303% |
|
Harrell R. #3 - Tennessee |
0.0275% |
|
Joe C. - Houston |
0.0275% |
|
Tim Dz. #2 - Arizona |
0.0270% |
|
Veronica G. - Houston |
0.0264% |
|
Brooklynn B. - Purdue |
0.0262% |
|
Andrew D. #2 - Houston |
0.0183% |
|
Eric S. #1 - Houston |
0.0183% |
|
Patrick McC. #2 - Connecticut |
0.0183% |
|
Pete J. #3 - Houston |
0.0183% |
|
Dennis R. - Connecticut |
0.0175% |
|
Roth W. - Houston |
0.0168% |
|
Andy L. - Purdue |
0.0153% |
|
Brandon H. #1 - Houston |
0.0142% |
|
Brett W. - Arizona |
0.0142% |
|
Irene H. #3 - Purdue |
0.0132% |
|
Kristina H. - Kentucky |
0.0122% |
|
Paul K. #1 - North Carolina |
0.0122% |
|
Rob C. - Connecticut |
0.0122% |
|
CAAT #3 - Connecticut |
0.0119% |
|
CAAT #4 - Connecticut |
0.0119% |
|
Luis B. #5 - Connecticut |
0.0119% |
|
Damien R. #1 - Houston |
0.0102% |
|
Jim D. #1 - Connecticut |
0.0092% |
|
Kiah H. #2 - Texas Tech |
0.0092% |
|
Guillermo V. - Connecticut |
0.0085% |
|
Brett G. (Upset) - Connecticut |
0.0061% |
|
Colston W. - Connecticut |
0.0061% |
|
Irene H. #5 - Tennessee |
0.0061% |
|
Daisy N. #2 - Purdue |
0.0046% |
|
Marshmellow (Nik B.) - Howard /
Wagner |
0.0046% |
|
Brett G. (Quinnie) - Arizona |
0.0041% |
|
Jaxon S. - Purdue |
0.0031% |
|
Tim Dz. #1 - Connecticut |
0.0031% |
Remember that this calculation assumed that all outcomes are
equally likely. Therefore, the scenarios
that are chosen by the fewest people tend to float to the top. For example, Legend of Zelli has the best
odds, mostly because she has a Final 4 of San Diego State, Arizona, Duke and
Tennessee with Duke beating SDSU in the Finals.
Not many people have that, so if Duke meets SDSU there, she almost
assuredly win, regardless of what happens in any other games.
Someone that chose mostly by the seeds has a much narrower
path, but arguably one more likely to actually happen. Their margin for error is probably a lot less
though.
Again, this is only for first, there is still a lot of money
out there for 2nd – 5th.
I should have those odds tomorrow.
Good luck!!!!!
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