Thursday, March 21, 2024

Odds to win each region

 All right, I’m trying something new this year, and I’ve already semi-screwed it up.  I mentioned that I found I had 2 brackets named Ryan G.  none of that effects the scoring or anything like that, but it may effect one part of this next thing.

I said that I was going to give out $25 to the winner of each region.  I’ve been calculating the probabilities people could win those.  I created a matrix.  Each column is a region.  The %age listed Is the probability right now that you will win.  I derive it by looking at all the possible remaining scenarios and figuring put what ones you will win in and coming up with a percentage.  It’s essentially the same thing I do for the odds of winning when we get down to 16 teams.  The only real difference is that I am not using a tie-breaker, so if you sum up the percentages, you will see that they add up to > 1.  That’s different than the overall percentage when I calculate them.

Remember that these probabilities assume each outcome is equally likely to happen, which we all know is not true.  It’s something I kind of need to do in order to make the numbers work.  Figuring out a weighted average would be a little too tough for me to do right now.

Because of that, people that picked unorthodox stuff tend to have higher chances of winning.  For example if you have Stetson winning the East, you probably have the largest probability of winning, since if Stetson wins the East, you are almost certainly going to win the Region.  However, if they lose, your probability will probably be 0.  It’s high risk / high reward.

If you can’t win a region, I put the name of the team that knocked you out of contention.

The Ryan G. thing comes into play because I had to use a few VLOOKUP functions and when there are 2 of the same names, the function brings back the first in both circumstances.  Everyone else’s percentages are OK.

I ordered the list based on total chances of winning something.

So, here is the inaugural Regional Matrix:

Name

East

West

South

MW

Ali A. #1

0.9766%

5.6641%

16.4551%

5.3223%

Marshmellow (Nik B.)

21.3379%

Wagner

3.1067%

0.9766%

Moochie #3

1.4160%

11.9141%

7.2083%

Colorado St.

Tomas L.

0.0244%

0.4883%

0.3784%

14.0137%

Damien R. #4

0.3906%

LB St.

1.4893%

10.7422%

Constance McA.

5.7617%

Wagner

3.9551%

2.5879%

Charlotte N.

1.5625%

Nevada

5.4016%

5.1270%

Ali A. #2

1.3672%

5.6641%

2.3865%

2.2949%

Brandie H.

5.1025%

2.9297%

2.4414%

0.0488%

Kirt R. #2

3.8330%

3.8086%

0.4211%

2.4414%

Mustard (Nikolajs B.)

0.3906%

0.0977%

4.0955%

5.8105%

Faye N.

S. Dak. St.

Nevada

4.5654%

5.5176%

Tim Dz. #1

6.8359%

0.1953%

1.1902%

1.7578%

Henry A.

Morehead St.

3.5645%

6.3477%

McNeese St.

D. Mag #4

1.0742%

1.5137%

6.2378%

0.4395%

Shawn D.

1.8066%

1.5137%

4.1382%

1.2695%

Christopher K.

0.1709%

1.1719%

4.9500%

2.0020%

Amanda R.

1.7334%

5.1270%

1.3123%

Akron

Alyssa B.

0.1953%

0.7324%

Kentucky

6.0059%

Josiah T.

6.7383%

Miss St.

0.0183%

McNeese St.

Missy W. #1

1.0498%

1.1719%

0.1282%

4.3945%

Bryce O.

1.3184%

4.1016%

0.7751%

Akron

Daisy N. #2

Morehead St.

5.9570%

Kentucky

S. Carolina

Harrell R. #1

4.7607%

0.9277%

0.2014%

S. Carolina

Jacob A.

5.1025%

Nevada

0.1587%

0.5371%

Becky H.

4.1504%

Nevada

0.3418%

1.1719%

Steve Dz. #2

2.8076%

0.5371%

0.1709%

2.0020%

Finn D.

Morehead St.

3.4180%

0.4456%

1.4160%

Chris E.

0.5615%

0.1953%

0.0549%

4.3457%

D. Mag #1

1.6113%

0.8789%

1.1780%

1.4160%

Brett G. (Sleeper)

1.2695%

Nevada

0.3357%

3.4180%

Paul W.

2.1973%

Miss St.

2.2827%

0.4395%

Brent E. #1

0.8789%

4.0039%

0.0305%

S. Carolina

Legend of Zelli

1.8311%

2.3438%

0.5920%

S. Carolina

Daisy N. #8

0.0488%

Nevada

4.4861%

0.1465%

Chris M.

BYU

4.4922%

0.0122%

Colorado St.

April K.

3.1494%

1.1719%

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Mark B.

1.7334%

2.5391%

Kentucky

McNeese St.

Valerie D.

2.0020%

0.5859%

0.1221%

1.4160%

Melissa M.

Morehead St.

0.4883%

3.5583%

S. Carolina

Kiah H. #2

0.5615%

Wagner

3.4729%

S. Carolina

Daisy N. #1

BYU

1.3672%

0.0244%

2.4902%

Kiah H. #1

0.1221%

3.7109%

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Dan Dug. #1

3.1006%

0.1465%

0.4700%

0.0977%

John N.

1.2451%

2.4414%

0.0122%

S. Carolina

Elizabeth N. #2

0.2441%

Nevada

0.1221%

3.3203%

Moochie #4

1.9287%

1.1230%

0.0061%

0.3906%

Harrell R. #2

0.1221%

0.9277%

2.3376%

S. Carolina

Brandon H. #1

2.7344%

0.3906%

0.2075%

S. Carolina

Daisy N. #11

BYU

0.2930%

Kentucky

3.0273%

Damien R. #3

0.7080%

Miss St.

0.0122%

2.4414%

Brian K.

0.0977%

Nevada

0.2502%

2.7832%

Klei R. #3

0.0977%

2.9297%

0.0305%

Colorado St.

Dianna A.

0.2441%

0.1953%

0.1038%

2.4902%

Stephen C.

1.4160%

0.1465%

1.4648%

Colorado St.

Def Efficiency

2.7100%

0.1953%

0.0916%

Colorado St.

Klei R. #2

0.6348%

2.1484%

0.1465%

Akron

Ryan Green

0.5615%

1.0742%

0.4211%

0.8301%

Ryan G.

0.5615%

1.0742%

0.4211%

0.8301%

Karen C.

2.8564%

LB St.

0.0122%

McNeese St.

Mason A. #1

BYU

2.6367%

0.1587%

S. Carolina

Connor W.

0.3906%

0.0977%

0.0427%

2.0508%

Marc R.

1.7334%

0.0488%

0.0122%

0.7813%

Mason A. #2

0.9033%

0.1953%

0.3906%

1.0254%

Dan Dug. #2

1.7578%

Nevada

0.0671%

0.6836%

Derek B.

1.1963%

0.6348%

0.3601%

0.1953%

Patrick McC. #2

0.0488%

1.6602%

0.0122%

0.6348%

Szecho L.

0.8545%

1.0254%

0.0244%

0.4395%

Bryce S.

0.5859%

Miss St.

1.7212%

Colorado St.

John Mack #1

S. Dak. St.

0.5859%

1.1963%

0.4395%

Moochie #5

BYU

0.7324%

0.5432%

0.9277%

Moochie #2

0.1953%

1.3672%

0.6165%

Colorado St.

Matt W.

1.1230%

0.9766%

Kentucky

0.0488%

Derek H.

0.2197%

Nevada

1.9043%

S. Carolina

Ryan W.

1.3916%

0.1953%

0.0366%

0.4395%

Daisy N. #6

0.1221%

Nevada

0.5188%

1.4160%

Brandon H. #2

1.5869%

Miss St.

0.3113%

0.0977%

Brent E. #2

0.8789%

0.8301%

0.0366%

0.2441%

Amber D.

0.0244%

1.9043%

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Kristin G.

0.0488%

1.7578%

0.0854%

McNeese St.

Brad R.

0.2686%

0.5371%

0.5432%

0.5371%

Dylan B.

1.8311%

Nevada

0.0488%

S. Carolina

Kim F.

1.7334%

0.0977%

0.0366%

McNeese St.

Brooklynn B.

0.1221%

Nevada

1.2329%

0.4883%

Mark A.

BYU

0.3418%

1.2329%

0.2441%

Ally H.

1.3916%

0.3906%

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Mitchell S.

0.1709%

Nevada

1.3367%

0.2441%

Paul K. #2

1.5137%

0.0977%

0.0854%

Colorado St.

DESGRU8 (Dan Dz.)

1.3916%

0.2441%

0.0061%

McNeese St.

Jackson I.

1.1230%

Nevada

0.0122%

0.4883%

Nick I.

BYU

0.1953%

1.3000%

0.0977%

Gary W.

BYU

Nevada

0.0244%

1.5625%

Rich F.

0.0977%

0.0977%

0.5432%

0.8301%

Eric S. #2

0.2930%

0.3906%

0.8179%

Colorado St.

Daniel E.

0.7568%

0.1953%

0.5127%

Colorado St.

Daisy N. #4

BYU

Nevada

1.3062%

0.1465%

Dave A.

0.1221%

0.3906%

0.1038%

0.8301%

Howard S. #2

0.1221%

1.2695%

0.0183%

Colorado St.

Harrell R. #4

0.0977%

0.9277%

0.3540%

S. Carolina

Kevin F. #2

1.0742%

0.1465%

Kentucky

0.1465%

Kevin F. #1

0.5615%

Nevada

0.1648%

0.6348%

Off Efficiency

0.2930%

0.7324%

0.0122%

0.2930%

Chun W. #1

0.1465%

Miss St.

0.0122%

1.1719%

Mike V.

BYU

0.0488%

Kentucky

1.2695%

Daisy N. #3

0.6836%

Nevada

0.4822%

0.1465%

Dawn T.

0.4395%

0.8301%

0.0427%

Colorado St.

Daisy N. #9

0.0488%

0.1953%

0.6531%

0.3906%

Harrell R. #3

BYU

0.9277%

0.3540%

S. Carolina

Paul K. #1

0.5615%

0.6836%

0.0305%

McNeese St.

Greg R.

1.2695%

Nevada

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Kristina H.

0.0488%

1.1719%

0.0061%

S. Carolina

Vang L.

BYU

Miss St.

Kentucky

1.2207%

Scott H. #2

0.0977%

Nevada

0.0854%

1.0254%

Tyler C.

BYU

Nevada

0.2136%

0.9766%

David F. #2

0.1221%

Nevada

0.8911%

0.1465%

Dan L. #1

BYU

0.1953%

0.1221%

0.8301%

Moochie #1

BYU

0.2441%

0.0183%

0.8301%

D. Mag #3

0.1221%

0.9277%

0.0244%

S. Carolina

Michael S. #2

0.5127%

0.2930%

0.2380%

S. Carolina

Gigi I.

Morehead St.

0.7324%

0.0122%

0.2930%

Chun W. #2

0.4150%

Miss St.

0.0732%

0.5371%

Brett G. (Upset)

BYU

0.4883%

0.1282%

0.3906%

Eric V.

0.1953%

0.7813%

0.0244%

Colorado St.

Chris T.

BYU

Miss St.

0.0732%

0.9277%

Tim N.

0.1221%

0.1953%

0.3784%

0.2930%

Kyle V.

BYU

0.3906%

0.0305%

0.5371%

Pete J. #1

0.1709%

0.3906%

Kentucky

0.3906%

Irene H. #2

0.8301%

Nevada

0.0183%

0.0977%

Missy W. #2

S. Dak. St.

0.7324%

0.1953%

S. Carolina

Josh V.

0.2197%

0.1953%

0.3601%

0.1465%

Scott K. #1

0.1953%

0.3418%

0.0732%

0.2930%

Matt H.

BYU

0.4395%

0.0671%

0.3906%

Daisy N. #7

BYU

0.8301%

0.0671%

Colorado St.

Irene H. #3

Morehead St.

0.4395%

0.4456%

S. Carolina

Scott H. #1

0.5615%

0.2441%

0.0732%

S. Carolina

Danielle A.

0.0977%

0.4395%

Kentucky

0.3418%

Craig G.

BYU

0.2930%

Kentucky

0.5859%

Eric G.

0.6348%

Miss St.

0.1282%

0.0977%

Andrew D. #2

0.0488%

Nevada

0.0244%

0.7813%

Michelle L. #3

BYU

0.5859%

0.0244%

0.2441%

Jaxon S.

0.6348%

0.1953%

0.0122%

McNeese St.

Jay H. #1

0.0977%

0.0488%

0.6897%

Colorado St.

Wayne D. #5

0.4883%

0.1953%

0.1465%

McNeese St.

Colston W.

0.3662%

0.2930%

0.0488%

0.0977%

Michelle L. #2

0.0977%

0.4395%

0.0183%

0.2441%

Dirk F.

0.5615%

Miss St.

0.2258%

S. Carolina

D. Mag #2

0.5859%

0.1953%

0.0061%

Akron

Patrick McC. #1

0.2197%

0.2930%

0.0122%

0.2441%

Michelle L. #4

0.0488%

0.5859%

0.0244%

0.0977%

Michael S. #1

0.5127%

0.1953%

0.0244%

Colorado St.

Guillermo V.

BYU

0.4883%

0.2319%

Colorado St.

Luis B. #3

BYU

0.0977%

0.0305%

0.5859%

Brandon B. #2

0.1221%

0.5859%

Kentucky

McNeese St.

Elliot N.

0.6104%

Nevada

0.0732%

McNeese St.

Brett W.

0.5859%

Nevada

0.0854%

McNeese St.

Michelle L. #1

BYU

0.5371%

0.0244%

0.0977%

Pete J. #5

0.3662%

0.1953%

Kentucky

0.0977%

Howard S. #1

0.1465%

0.2930%

0.0122%

0.1953%

Tim Dz. #2

Morehead St.

Nevada

0.6409%

S. Carolina

Noah G.

0.0488%

0.5859%

Kentucky

McNeese St.

Jared V.

BYU

0.5859%

0.0366%

S. Carolina

Hutch H. #1

BYU

0.1465%

0.0183%

0.4395%

Wayne D. #3

0.2197%

Miss St.

0.2747%

0.0977%

Dan L. #2

0.5859%

Miss St.

0.0061%

S. Carolina

Luis B. #2

BYU

Miss St.

Kentucky

0.5859%

Andy L.

0.3906%

Miss St.

0.1892%

Colorado St.

Wayne D. #1

0.5615%

Nevada

0.0122%

Colorado St.

Rob C.

BYU

0.4395%

0.1282%

S. Carolina

Dustin B.

0.1465%

Miss St.

0.2014%

0.1953%

Michelle L. #5

BYU

0.5371%

Kentucky

S. Carolina

Irene H. #4

BYU

0.3906%

Kentucky

0.1465%

Mario M.

BYU

Wagner

0.5310%

S. Carolina

Daisy N. #5

Morehead St.

0.0977%

0.4333%

Colorado St.

John Mack #2

S. Dak. St.

LB St.

0.1282%

0.3906%

Brent E. #3

BYU

0.3906%

0.0244%

0.0977%

Brent E. #4

BYU

0.3906%

0.0244%

0.0977%

Scott K. #2

0.4150%

0.0977%

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Carlo G.

BYU

Miss St.

0.0122%

0.4883%

Wayne D. #2

0.2930%

0.1953%

Kentucky

McNeese St.

Elizabeth P. #3

0.0488%

0.4395%

Kentucky

S. Carolina

Noah N.

0.2930%

0.1953%

Kentucky

McNeese St.

Brandon B. #1

0.1221%

0.3418%

0.0122%

Colorado St.

John A. #2

0.2197%

0.1465%

Kentucky

0.0977%

Miles D.

0.1953%

Miss St.

0.0244%

0.2441%

Damien R. #1

0.0488%

0.1953%

0.0122%

0.1953%

Damien R. #2

BYU

Nevada

0.0122%

0.4395%

Kirt R. #1

BYU

Nevada

0.0122%

0.4395%

Brett G. (Devils)

0.0977%

Nevada

0.3479%

Colorado St.

Elizabeth N. #1

BYU

0.3906%

0.0549%

S. Carolina

Shanky G.

BYU

0.4395%

Kentucky

McNeese St.

Irene H. #6

BYU

0.2441%

0.1770%

S. Carolina

John E. #1

BYU

0.2930%

0.1221%

S. Carolina

Josh C.

0.1465%

0.1953%

0.0732%

McNeese St.

Scarlett H.

S. Dak. St.

0.1953%

0.2014%

S. Carolina

Andrew D. #1

BYU

0.0977%

0.0427%

0.2441%

Jim W.

BYU

Miss St.

0.3845%

Colorado St.

Joe C.

0.0488%

0.2441%

0.0854%

S. Carolina

Larry G. #1

BYU

0.0977%

0.2808%

S. Carolina

Matt M.

Morehead St.

Nevada

0.3784%

Colorado St.

Rob I.

0.0977%

Miss St.

0.2808%

McNeese St.

Klei R. #1

BYU

0.2930%

0.0610%

S. Carolina

Mike W.

0.0488%

Nevada

0.1953%

0.0977%

Larry G. #2

BYU

0.1953%

0.0305%

0.0977%

Nate R.

0.1221%

0.1953%

Kentucky

S. Carolina

David F. #1

BYU

Wagner

0.0671%

0.2441%

Pete J. #3

BYU

0.2441%

0.0488%

S. Carolina

Ken Pom

BYU

0.2441%

0.0427%

S. Carolina

Deanna T.

BYU

0.2441%

0.0366%

S. Carolina

Kealoha G.

BYU

0.1953%

0.0854%

McNeese St.

Brad E.

BYU

0.2441%

0.0305%

S. Carolina

Cicely K.

BYU

Miss St.

0.2747%

S. Carolina

Melody K.

Morehead St.

Nevada

0.0305%

0.2441%

Adam E.

0.0488%

Miss St.

0.2197%

McNeese St.

CAAT #3

0.1221%

0.0488%

Kentucky

0.0977%

CAAT #4

0.1221%

0.0488%

Kentucky

0.0977%

John E. #2

0.0488%

Miss St.

0.0671%

0.1465%

Chrissy I.

Morehead St.

Nevada

0.2563%

McNeese St.

Gutless Bracket

BYU

0.0977%

0.0366%

0.0977%

Mary Lou H.

BYU

0.0977%

0.0366%

0.0977%

Hutch H. #2

Morehead St.

0.1465%

0.0610%

McNeese St.

Daisy N. #12

0.0244%

Nevada

0.1831%

McNeese St.

Dan Mck.

0.0977%

0.0977%

0.0122%

Colorado St.

Stefon K.

0.0488%

0.0488%

0.1099%

S. Carolina

Beau H.

0.1465%

Nevada

0.0610%

S. Carolina

Adam S.

0.0977%

0.0977%

0.0061%

S. Carolina

Irene H. #5

Morehead St.

0.1953%

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Steve Dz. #1

0.1953%

Miss St.

Kentucky

S. Carolina

Pete J. #2

BYU

0.1953%

Kentucky

S. Carolina

Zach V.

BYU

0.0977%

0.0916%

S. Carolina

Wayne D. #4

BYU

Miss St.

0.1892%

McNeese St.

Larry G. #3

BYU

0.0488%

0.1343%

Colorado St.

Irene H. #7

0.1221%

0.0488%

Kentucky

S. Carolina

Adalyn H.

0.1709%

Miss St.

Kentucky

S. Carolina

Luis B. #4

0.1465%

Miss St.

0.0122%

S. Carolina

Emily T.

BYU

Nevada

0.1465%

Colorado St.

Dennis R.

BYU

Nevada

Kentucky

0.1465%

Luis B. #5

0.1221%

Miss St.

0.0244%

Colorado St.

Brent S. #1

0.0488%

0.0977%

Kentucky

McNeese St.

Mike N.

0.1221%

Nevada

0.0122%

McNeese St.

CAAT #5

0.1221%

Nevada

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Niren D.

BYU

Nevada

0.0122%

0.0977%

Irene H. #1

BYU

Nevada

0.1099%

Colorado St.

Seth D.

BYU

0.0488%

0.0549%

McNeese St.

Brett G. (Quinnie)

0.0977%

Miss St.

0.0061%

McNeese St.

John A. #1

BYU

Nevada

Kentucky

0.0977%

Chris L. #4

BYU

Miss St.

Kentucky

0.0977%

Brooke M. #2

BYU

0.0488%

0.0427%

Colorado St.

Dan P.

BYU

0.0488%

0.0305%

S. Carolina

Grant F.

BYU

Nevada

0.0610%

McNeese St.

CAAT #1

BYU

0.0488%

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Veronica G.

BYU

0.0488%

Kentucky

S. Carolina

Brooke M. #1

BYU

0.0488%

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Jared B.

0.0488%

Nevada

Kentucky

McNeese St.

Ben S.

0.0488%

Nevada

Kentucky

McNeese St.

Roth W.

BYU

Nevada

0.0366%

McNeese St.

Eric S. #1

Morehead St.

Nevada

0.0305%

McNeese St.

Daisy N. #10

0.0244%

Nevada

0.0061%

McNeese St.

Jim D. #1

BYU

Nevada

0.0244%

McNeese St.

James G.

BYU

Nevada

0.0183%

McNeese St.

Luis B. #1

BYU

Nevada

0.0183%

McNeese St.

Matt N.

BYU

Nevada

0.0122%

Colorado St.

Larry G. #4

BYU

Miss St.

0.0122%

S. Carolina

Baily T.

BYU

Nevada

0.0122%

S. Carolina

Pete J. #4

BYU

Miss St.

0.0061%

S. Carolina

Pat K.

BYU

Miss St.

0.0061%

McNeese St.

Chris L. #1

BYU

Miss St.

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Chris L. #2

BYU

Miss St.

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Chris L. #3

BYU

Miss St.

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Jay B. - ESPN

BYU

Miss St.

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Jay H. #2

BYU

Miss St.

Kentucky

Colorado St.

CAAT #2

BYU

Nevada

Kentucky

Colorado St.

Jim D. #2

BYU

Nevada

Kentucky

S. Carolina

Brent S. #2

BYU

Miss St.

Kentucky

McNeese St.

Pete J. #6

BYU

Wagner

Kentucky

S. Carolina

 

I personally love how Jay Bilas is already eliminated from winning all 4 brackets.  That guy gets paid to talk about basketball on TV.

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